The Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown delivers the stats and storylines you need to dominate the week in fantasy football. Matt Savoca breaks down all the angles on every team and every game, including MVP Lamar Jackson’s first action since a bitter playoff defeat in the 2019 Divisional Round. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Browns – Ravens.
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Browns (20.25) at Ravens (28.25) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
Despite it being their second straight AFC North title, the Ravens were the breakout team of 2020, rolling over teams with their league-leading rushing attack in the NFL en route to a 14-2 record. Jackson (80.9 rush yards and 0.4 rush touchdowns per game), who trounced the single-season rushing record for quarterbacks while simultaneously throwing touchdowns at an absurd 9% clip (No. 1 in the NFL), was the runaway MVP. With a backfield that includes Mark Ingram (84 total yards, 0.9 touchdowns per game) and premium spell backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Factoring in Jackson, this is already the most lethal backfield in the NFL. Enter J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore’s second-round pick, who averaged more than seven yards per touch as as a freshman at Ohio State. Ingram deserves to keep his role as starter, but there’s no doubt the Ravens will find ways to use Dobbins from the get go, and when it’s Dobbins’ time, he’s going to be a star in this system.
In the passing game, Mark Andrews, a part-time player in 2019 (43.2% of snaps) who was masterfully strategized into gameplans a year ago, ended up as the team’s target leader. With the departure of Hayden Hurst, Andrews now projects to an every-down role, meaning he could easily build upon a 2019 season that saw him rank fifth among all tight ends in targets per game, first in deep targets and first in total touchdowns. Marquise Brown projects as the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore’s low-volume pass attack. Brown dealt with a Lisfranc injury throughout 2019, but now healed and apparently bulked up, there’s growing team sentiment that Brown will move well past his 3.3 reception per game from a year ago and break out as a star receiver this season. Brown could easily command 6-9 targets, especially if the Browns’ offense keeps pace with the Ravens. The auxiliary weapons for Jackson will be something to monitor.
The Ravens are looking for one of Willie Snead, 2019 third-rounder Miles Boykin or their 2020 day 3 picks Devin Duvernay and James Proche to establish themselves as a full-time player. But in the meantime, they’ll likely be rotated-in situationally. It should be noted, fullback Patrick Ricard and tight end Nick Boyle, integral parts of the Ravens overall offensive scheme, will play plenty of (fantasy-irrelevant) snaps regardless of who wins the Ravens’ WR2 job. The Browns secondary will have their hands full, but they are an improving unit, led by corners Denzel Ward (72.1 passer rating when targeted, No. 3 in the NFL) and Greedy Williams (98.9, No. 29), though Williams appears to be trending towards not playing due to a shoulder injury.
Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
Freddie Kitchens was ousted after one season as coach in Cleveland, and in his place, the Browns replaced Kitchens with Kevin Stefanski, former offensive coordinator of the Vikings. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, on his third offensive scheme in three years, comes into 2020 with much of the same (if not better) personnel but much less media hype than one season ago. Vegas, unsurprisingly, has barely moved their win totals year over year (9.0 to 8.5), indicating this team is likely to be a contender in 2020 and is likely a tougher out than the 8-point spread implies. The Browns focused their offseason on improving their offensive line, signing Pro Bowler Jack Conklin from the Titans and drafting tackle Jedrick Wills in the first round. It stands to reason that running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, arguably the best running back tandem in the NFL, should have more (and better) opportunities to beat defenses on the ground.
Speaking of that backfield tandem, the Browns’ usage of Chubb and Hunt is one of the most exciting things to watch on Sunday. Chubb’s usage fell off drastically in the last weeks of the season. Starting in Week 14, after posting six straight weeks of at least 20 carries, Chubb never received more than 17 carries again and only crested 20 total opportunities one time. Hunt, meanwhile, averaged 5.5 carries and 5.4 targets per game. From a fantasy perspective, Chubb remains one of the great home run hitters and possibly the best pure runner in the game today (No. 1 in breakaway runs and No. 2 in total evaded tackles, via PlayerProfiler), running behind what should be an elite offensive line, coached by the same coach who just helped launch Dalvin Cook to superstardom. In short, there are worse situations to bet on than Chubb’s. However, his ceiling is undeniably capped by Hunt’s built-in role in the receiving game and his talent to vulture meaningful touches at any time.
Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry on average commanded 16 total targets per game last season and had a target differential greater than five only twice in all of 2019. When you include air yards, Landry and Beckham were again nearly identical, commanding 27% and 29% of Cleveland’s weighted opportunity, respectively. Ultimately, Landry out-targeted Beckham in nine of 15 games last season, but Beckham, who apparently played hurt all last year, is more likely to command deep targets (two per game, second in the NFL) and is therefore the preferred fantasy option by the smallest of margins. Austin Hooper, signed in free agency from Atlanta, will get his share of the offense as well, but he’ll likely need a touchdown to hit pay dirt in fantasy football in most weeks, as target hogs Landry and Beckham will soak up a majority of the work.
Prediction: Baltimore 27, Cleveland 24
Alternative Scenario: Mayfield bests Baltimore’s vaunted secondary, and Chubb runs rampant in the second half. Cleveland shocks the Ravens, 31-28.
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