NFC North rivals collide as the Packers take on the Vikings in Week 1 with the battle between Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins taking center stage. For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Packers – Vikings.
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Packers (21.75) at Vikings (24.25) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Packers, just one win away from a Super Bowl appearance a season ago, enter Week 1 as road underdogs against bitter rival Minnesota. Having shown a more balanced approach than previous Aaron Rodgers–led offenses (No. 15 in team passes plays per game in 2019), leading to running back Aaron Jones’ emergence as a touchdown machine (19, first in the NFL). But make no mistake — this offense is still centered around the play of Rodgers, who buoyed his middle-of-the-road pass attempt numbers with a swath of deep shots (5.9 per game, second in the NFL). He’ll be targeting Davante Adams early and often (10.6 targets per game, 30.6% of weighted team’s weighted passing opportunity last season). But behind Adams, the pecking order is still up for grabs. Rodgers recently touted Marques Valdez-Scantling, which has some speculating that Valdez-Scantling is ready to make the leap from part-time player to weekly contributor (3.8 targets per game on 55% snaps).
Betting on a Packers No. 2 receiver is not something I’m able to do until I see it. It’s not unreasonable to expect 15-20 passes distributed to just Adams and Jones. In the backfield Aaron Jones will be spelled by Jamaal Williams, entirely discarded in fantasy football circles due to the Packers drafting of A.J. Dillon in the second round of the 2020 draft. Dillon will get work as well, but it appears he’s playing for the No. 2 and a situational role as we begin the year.
Even with a vaunted pass rush (that just added the Jaguar’s Yannick Ngakoue), it was the Vikings secondary that was exploitable last season, as Xavier Rhodes (now a Colt) was much more beatable than his Pro-Bowl reputation would suggest, and the same may hold true for this year’s unit. They’ll be relying on a collection of young talent (first-rounder Jeff Gladney, former first-rounder Mike Hughes, 2020 third-rounder Cameron Dantzler and UDFA turned possible starting corner Holton Hill) to stop Rodgers and company. That doesn’t necessarily inspire optimism for Vikings fans.
Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
This will be Minnesota’s first game without Stefon Diggs as a member of the offense after he was unceremoniously shipped to Buffalo this offseason for picks. That means 30-year-old Adam Thielen enters the season as the unquestioned alpha receiver for the Vikings after a banged-up 2019. Somewhere between eight and 10 targets is a reasonable expectation for Thielen, although we may see the Packers secondary hone in particularly on Thielen, forcing quarterback Kirk Cousins to look elsewhere. Behind Thielen, it appears 2019 seventh-rounder Olabisi Johnson will get the nod at the second wide receiver position, but look for tight ends Kyle Rudolph and second-year talent Irv Smith Jr. to be heavily involved in the game plan, particularly because of how it could open up possibilities in the run game.
Though we should expect to see first-round receiver Justin Jefferson in the slot at some points (he played over 90% of his snaps at LSU last season in the slot), it won’t be surprising to see the Vikings relying heavily on 12 personnel, choosing at times to move the athletic Smith into the slot or split out wide, while Rudolph executes the traditional inline duties. All of this is without mentioning the player the Vikings want to play through, running back Dalvin Cook. Still seeking his monster money but claiming he’s focused on the year ahead, Cook primed for a repeat of 2019 and is the unquestioned star of Gary Kubiak’s system (which former offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski ran last year). He will once again be put in a position to be the RB1 overall each week. Look for the team build off of Cook and generate plenty of play-action, high-percentage passes (Cousins was No. 4 in play-action completion percentage a year ago) in order to keep the Packers pass rush (No. 4 in pressure rate) and improved secondary, led by stud corner Jaire Alexander (No. 9 in the NFL in catch rate allowed), on their toes.
Prediction: Packers 21, Vikings 17
Alternative Scenario: Rodgers and Cousins get into an early-season shootout (in case you haven’t noticed, I think many games could hit the over in Week 1). Both teams refuse to back down. Vikings 37, Packers 34 (OT).
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