The Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown delivers the stats and storylines you need to dominate the week in fantasy football. Matt Savoca breaks down all the angles on every team and every game, including Josh Allen‘s first game with star wide receiver Stefon Diggs as they face the Jamal Adams–less Jets. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Jets – Bills.
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Jets (16.5) at Bills (23) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Jets and Bills are two franchises in two vastly different stages of development. The Vegas expected wins (9 vs. 6.5) and Week 1 spread are only the tip of the iceberg. Buffalo, under coach Sean McDermott, has built an offense that’s highly complementary to Allen’s skill set. Though Allen isn’t the most accurate deep passer (his 25% completion rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield was 33rd in the NFL), he’s flanked by three receivers who are notorious for creating separation: Cole Beasley (underneath), John Brown (deep) and Diggs (all over the field). Diggs, the Bills’ splash acquisition of the offseason, should see more than his 6.2 targets (and 1.9 deep targets) per game in Minnesota.
Brown (7.7 targets per game) should see his overall opportunity decrease, but the quality of his looks could actually increase with Diggs across from him. It should be noted, Brown’s best season came in 2015, playing across from a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald. Brown is still capable of burning the Jets for a quick score, even if he’s only projected in the 4-6 opportunity range. And he’ll have no problem operating as a primary receiver if defenses choose to take away Diggs. If Allen can improve his accuracy as a deep passer, it’s possible we will soon be mentioning the trio of Allen, Brown and Diggs among the very best passing game trios in the NFL.
Second-year back Devin Singletary projects as the starter in the Buffalo backfield after the Bills let go of Frank Gore (now a Jet). Singletary turned a weekly average of 15 opportunities into a modest 80 total yards per game a season ago, good for 19th among running backs. Expect Singletary to be in on early downs but to be spelled on third downs, and possibly at the goal line, by 2020 third-rounder Zack Moss. In reality, this team’s goal line back is Allen (second among quarterbacks in red zone carries a year ago), limiting the touchdown ceiling of both Singletary and Moss.
New York Jets Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Jets enter 2020 talent-deficient, full of drama and injured at receiver. 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims missed most of training camp with a hamstring strain, but luckily for the Jets, he says he’s good to go. Chris Herndon (chest) has been in and out of practice, and Breshad Perriman is dealing with swelling in the same knee that debilitated him early in his career and eventually forced the Ravens to cut bait.
That leaves 2019 target hog Jamison Crowder as the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Sam Darnold’s passing attack. The 5-foot-8, 185-pound slot specialist should soak up at least eight targets in this game, and could easily push for 10-12 opportunities, depending on the flow of the game. It should be mentioned, though, that with the Jets so depleted at wideout, the Bills could choose to blanket Crowder with Pro-Bowl corner Tre’Davious White. In that scenario, I’d expect a quiet day from Crowder.
Le’Veon Bell, who has had anything but a quiet offseason, should still get a majority of the work out of the backfield, including plenty of work in the receiving game to be viable for fantasy football. However, it looks like his workhorse role is in serious jeopardy, lowering his probability of 20-plus touches. Gore is going to play more than anyone (outside of Gore and Adam Gase) might want. It’s a real possibility that it will be the 37-year-old Gore who gets the Jets’ (rare) goal-line looks. The probability Bell ever sees a bell cow workload, one in line with his days in Pittsburgh, seems to be shrinking ever more each week. With a low touchdown upside and less than a full workload, Bell is a full fade for this article’s author.
Prediction: Bills 31, Jets 21
Alternative Scenario: Allen is accurate, Diggs and Brown get loose. It’s a Bill’s Bonanza in week 1. Bills 42, Jets 14.
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