The defending NFC champions got back on their feet after two straight losses with a commanding win over the 2018 NFC champion Rams. In week 7, they’ll face the other 2018 AFC champions in the New England Patriots, who were just beat at home by Drew Lock in week 6. Can Jimmy Garoppolo get revenge on the squad that traded him away? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into 49ers – Patriots NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
San Francisco 49ers (21.25) at New England Patriots (24.25) – 4:25 p.m. ET
San Francisco Passing Game
After an abysmal week 5, which resulted in a surprise “injury-related” benching, Jimmy Garoppolo returned to form in a major way against the Rams in week 6, helping the 49ers win an early must-win game to keep pace in the ruthlessly talented NFC North. Garoppolo’s 33 pass attempts tied a season high, and his 268 yards passing was the highest of Garoppolo’s three full-game starts this season, as were his three touchdowns. But the underlying metrics are still relatively unkind to Garoppolo. His true completion percentage is 27th in the NFL, his true passer rating ranks 17th and his clean pocket completion percentage ranks 25th. And he’s achieved those middling metrics while the 49ers receivers and tight ends have averaged the highest yards of separation per target in the entire NFL. In other words, receivers Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are getting open, Garoppolo’s just not finding them consistently. Besides the accuracy and efficiency issues, Garoppolo’s had a particularly difficult time closing out drives with touchdowns, ranking 30th in the NFL in true drive success rate. This and the 49ers’ propensity to lean on their typically prolific running game, lowers the overall upside of the offense.
That doesn’t even mention the Patriots defense, which ranks third in PFF’s team coverage grade and eighth overall in defensive rating. With a tendency to focus on eliminating a team’s most explosive weapon, the likely scenario is the Patriots center their entire defensive scheme around limiting the impact of Kittle, who recorded his second 100-yard receiving game in five weeks and his fourth game with eight-plus targets in week 6. His services won’t come cheaply this Sunday, as he’s the highest-salary tight end on the main slate. But even with Belichick manning the sidelines against him this weekend, Kittle has the ability to split apart even the toughest of defenses. It would be a poor decision to ever count Kittle out, but on paper, a game of four catches for 44 yards (a stat line he’s achieved twice already this season) seems like the more likely scenario. That said, there is a wide range of outcomes that absolutely includes a slate-winning score.
Beyond Kittle, the most heavily involved 49ers player has been rookie Aiyuk, who’s played on 90% of snaps over the team’s last three games and commanded 27% of the team’s air yards. More excitingly for Aiyuk’s upside, he’s been targeted in the end zone more than any other player on the San Francisco offense during that three-game span. Despite ranking fourth on the team in receptions (again since week 4), Aiyuk has the ability to break a game wide open and score multiple touchdowns, especially if the New England defensive is overly attentive towards Kittle. He’s a great contrarian option and is currently projected for less than 1% ownership.
That’s likely because most fantasy gamers (who aren’t looking at Kittle or who are stacking wide receivers alongside him) are likely looking toward Samuel, who’s still only playing on 68% of the team’s snaps. Though he’s seen 16% of the team’s targets, second most behind Kittle since week 4, he’s also being used more as a gadget player and currently has a running back-level average depth of target of 3.6 yards. Even Kendrick Bourne (who has quietly seen a 19% red zone target share even as the team has gotten healthier) has a much healthier average depth of target than Samuel at 8.0. Compared to their salary-based expectations, Bourne is actually the player the Awesemo projections are most bullish on in the receiving game. Bourne’s outside the top 60 receivers in salary on the main slate this weekend.
San Francisco Rushing Game
With Raheem Mostert (ankle) doubtful and likely headed towards injured reserve and Tevin Coleman already there, the 49ers will likely turn into a three-headed monster with Jerick McKinnon, undrafted rookie JaMycal Hasty and Jeff Wilson, the latter of whom was a bit of surprise scratch in week 6 after popping up on the injury report midweek with a calf injury. Wilson is practicing on a limited basis this week, which doesn’t guarantee he’ll play, but he’s trending in the right direction. If he’s active, he could be an interesting tournament option, as Wilson has had three games over the past two seasons with multiple scores. At 0.1% ownership, he’s an intriguing differentiating option for fantasy gamers this season. Still, the most likely scenario is that McKinnon, who also exited Sunday’s win against the Rams with a leg injury (but carries no injury designation heading into the weekend) will play the Mostert role (11 to 15 carries and 2-4 targets), with Hasty mixing in sporadically and Wilson at the goal line. In other words, it is a mess for fantasy. In a low-total game, it’s OK to call this a stay-away backfield. Even priced up this weekend, as the 17th-highest-salary running back, Awesemo’s projections love McKinnon this weekend, even in this tough matchup where the team is expected to be playing from behind.
New England Passing Game
It was a not-so-triumphant return for Patriots’ starting quarterback Cam Newton, who came out flat against the Broncos in week 6, passing for a paltry 157 yards on 25 attempts with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Newton, as he so often does, saved his fantasy day by rushing for 76 yards and a score, but New England still only mustered 12 total points in a losing effort. The passing metrics aren’t particularly kind to Newton, as he currently ranks 17th in true completion percentage, 25th in clean pocket completion percentage and 31st in true passer rating. Those metrics don’t inspire confidence in any of Newton’s primary receiving options, who all struggled to produce against Denver, due to Denver’s impressive defense as well as Newton’s efficiency woes.
Surprisingly, the Patriots’ leader in weighted opportunity rating in week 6 was Damiere Byrd, who saw an average depth of target of nearly 20 and commanded an absurdly high 55% of the team’s air yards but only hauled in three catches for 38 yards. That’s a solid signal of intended usage despite the accuracy woes, which might make Byrd an even more interesting tournament option than fellow wideouts N’Keal Harry, who’s in the midst of another disappointing season relative to his first-round draft status, and Julian Edelman, whose usage has regressed back toward the typical underneath receiver he’s been in previous years but with lower volume. One important note, however, is the 49ers have preferred to use shadow coverage with three different cornerbacks on tertiary receivers over the course of 2020 (they’ve used a corner to shadow the Jets’ Josh Malone, the Eagles’ John Hightower, and the Rams’ Josh Reynolds) and left the rest of the defense to cover the primary weapons. That may mean Byrd will see a lot of man coverage, which Newton may attempt to exploit if he feels Byrd has a step on his matchup.
Over the past two games, Edelman has an average depth of target of 5.8, pulling his season-long average depth of target to 10.4. In 2019, his ADOT was 9.8 yards. What cannot be ignored about Edelman, however, is his salary on the main slate, now sliding in as the 30th highest salary wide receiver. At that salary, he’s absolutely worth considering in a game that New England is implied for 2-3 team touchdowns. The Awesemo projections are quite bullish on Edelman relative to his salary.
New England Rushing Game
Since returning to the lineup in week 4, the backfield option who has seen the highest number of the Patriots’ opportunities has surprisingly been James White. White now has back-to-back contests with 11-plus opportunities and out-touched Newton 12-to-9. That put Rex Burkhead back on the shelf for the most part, as he ranked fourth in touches in week 6. Ultimately the most valuable option is Newton, who continues to lead the team in percentage of team rushes (and ranks No. 1 among quarterbacks in goal line rushes). Damien Harris is a longshot to have a tournament-winning score, even as the 33rd-highest-salary running back on the slate. Your primary options are Newton, who carries with him a projected ownership of 4.5%, ninth most among quarterbacks, or White, who projects to be utilized by less than 3% of the field. White’s Awesemo projection far outpaces his salary-based expectation.
Prediction: Patriots 21, 49ers 20
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