With the league moving the Buccaneers’ and Raiders’ Week 7 showdown from primetime to the afternoon, DraftKings has decided to add this contest to their main slate, so it’s time for a bonus matchups column. The Buccaneers completely trounced the Packers in week 6, making Aaron Rodgers look silly for most of the afternoon. Now they face Derek Carr, who’s playing some of the best football of his life. Do the Raiders have a chance against Tom Brady and the Bucs? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weeklyNFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Buccaneers – Raiders NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27.75) at Las Vegas Raiders (25.75) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Passing Game
The Buccaneers didn’t need much from Tom Brady in week 6 since the defense did a majority of the heavy lifting, nearly finishing off two pick-sixes versus early-season MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers. Brady, for what it’s worth, added two touchdowns of his own but only passed for 166 yards (with a paltry 231 air yards) on just 27 pass attempts, by far the lowest number of passes for Brady this season. It was a relatively uneventful day and perfectly indicative of the way Tampa Bay would like to control games this season — with a swarming defense and clock-controlling offense that picks its spots to be aggressive. That aggressiveness has shown itself in Brady’s air yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 10 in the NFL. In fact, Brady ranks No. 1 in the NFL in total passes beyond 20 yards and fourth in total passing touchdowns. While the underlying metrics are middling, especially for Brady’s standards (29th in clean pocket completion percentage, 21st in true completion percentage), the upside remains for Brady to be a top-five option at the quarterback position due to the nature of the Bruce Arians’ offense as well as his world-class receiving options. Facing the Raiders in week 7, who are 30th in points allowed per play and 31st in both PFF’s coverage grade and team defensive grade, Brady will have a fantastic chance at doing just that.
Speaking of receiving options, the Bucs are finally operating on all cylinders with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both expected in the lineup once again and Rob Gronkowski seemingly back after commanding a season-high eight targets and catching his first touchdown of the season as well. That was good enough for the sixth-highest fantasy output among tight ends in week 6. Godwin led the receivers in weighted opportunity last week, operating well ahead of 1A option Evans. In fact, Evans ranked fifth on the team in opportunity when factoring in air yards. In all, it’s been a fairly flat distribution of pass opportunity in Tampa, with four players (Godwin, Evans, Gronkowski, and Scott Miller) all seeing between 14% and 19% of the team’s weighted opportunity rating this season, which in-turn makes determining Brady’s top option tough on a weekly basis. The Raiders have been decent (in terms of schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed) to wide receivers as a whole, but they’ve specifically struggled with secondary receivers, ranking in the bottom 12 in the league against WR2s and tight ends, which could mean great things for Evans and Gronkowski.
In recent weeks, Tampa Bay has also been mixing-in new auxiliary weapons who still have significantly discounted salaries. Over the Buccaneers last two games, Tampa Bay’s fourth and fifth options in the receiving game have been rookie wideout Tyler Johnson, who’s averaged 8.5 fantasy points over the last two weeks with an end zone target, and secondary tight end Cameron Brate, who’s tied for second during that same span with six receptions. They’re $3,500 and $2,700, respectively, offering extremely budget-friendly access to a passing attack with one of the highest implied totals on the slate. In tournaments especially, a great way to approach the Buccaneers offense would be simply choosing the lesser-owned weapons and hoping Brady sees a specific weakness in the defense. Miller at $3,700 seems like a great option if using that strategy. But from a median projections perspective, Awesemo has honed in on Godwin and Evans this weekend, as they are the 14th-and 16th-highest-salary wide receivers on the main slate, respectively. Both possess salaries that won’t break your lineup’s budget and slate-winning upside in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rushing Game
With Leonard Fournette logging full practices, the Ronald Jones bell cow era comes to a close in Tampa Bay. Jones has been playing the best football of his career in recent weeks, earning 29, 22 and 25 opportunities since week 4 and finishing with yardage totals of 128, 125 and 121. He’s now had four games this season with three or more targets and five games this season with 17-plus opportunities. But the snap share for Jones, which has been between 58% and 63% in each game over the last three weeks, likely will take a dip to week 1-3 levels, when he only averaged a 41% snap share. With the Raiders ranking fourth worst in the NFL in PFF’s rush grade and the Buccaneers’ propensity to lean on the ground game, either Jones or Fournette could absolutely return value at their respective salaries. But priced up based on matchup, the Awesemo projections aren’t particularly rosy for either Jones or Fournette, seeing both as stay-away options. The only back the projections like relative to salary is LeSean McCoy, who’s only a tournament dart-throw play and hasn’t logged more than eight opportunities in a game this season.
Las Vegas Passing Game
The Raiders come out of their bye at 3-2 and sit just one game back of first place in the AFC West. The team would likely still be riding high after a resounding victory against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in week 5 if it weren’t for the team’s COVID-related issues — their entire starting offensive line is in danger of missing this game. We thought the biggest storyline for this squad in week 7 would be the much-improved play of the Las Vegas offense. Instead, we’re forced to contextualize previous stats with the knowledge that having 100% backups on the offensive line is not ideal. Against the Buccaneers defense that just made Rodgers look washed, it could be catastrophic.
And it’s a shame because quarterback Derek Carr was nearly unstoppable last we saw him, throwing for an absurd 11.2 yards per attempt (his best mark in two seasons), reaching 300 passing yards for the second week in a row and tossing three touchdowns for the second time this season. Through five games, Carr appears to be in the midst of one of his finest seasons as a pro, raking eighth among quarterbacks in true passer rating, seventh in clean pocket completion percentage and third in true completion percentage. Moreover, he’s been lethal on play-action; his 74% completion rate on play-action throws are best in the league. The Raiders’ offense, in terms of expected points added, is the most efficient offense in the NFL on a per-play basis. And they’ll likely need to maintain that efficiency Sunday, as the Buccaneers rank fourth in defensive points subtracted per play and first in PFF’s team coverage grade. In recent weeks, the Buccaneers have also utilized cornerback Carlton Davis in shadow coverage on opposing teams’ best players, already having followed Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson and Davante Adams for 65% or more of each players’ routes. He’ll likely do the same with rookie wideout Henry Ruggs, who returned to action in a big way in week 5 with 118 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions. The battle between Ruggs and Davis could be an epic one this weekend, as Davis has performed admirably “on an island” this season. Shadowed receivers are averaging just 4 catches for 34 yards while covered by Davis.
That could mean that Carr prefers to look for tight end Darren Waller, who leads the team and is second among all tight ends in true weighted opportunity share. Over the past three games, Waller has seen 33% of the Raiders’ red zone targets and has three times as many end zone targets as any other Raiders’ player during that span. His 133 total air yards is second to Hunter Renfrow, who’s seen 18% of Carr’s targets himself over the Raiders’ last three games. But with Ruggs back in the lineup in week 5, Renfrow only saw one target. Nelson Agholor didn’t see many more looks (he saw two), but he made the most of his opportunity in week 5 as well, securing both targets, including one for a score. Over Vegas’ last two games, Agholor has the second-highest average depth of target of any Las Vegas receiver with 5% or more of the team’s targets, trailing only Ruggs. The Awesemo projections are particularly bearish on Ruggs and favor Renfrow or Agholor, as both have salaries outside of the top 50 wideouts on the main slate but offer access to solid guaranteed usage in a game with high implied scores for both teams. Renfrow’s projection is particularly favorable compared to salary-based expectations. Waller is also in a favorable spot, as his Awesemo projection slots him ahead of his third-highest tight end salary on the main slate.
Las Vegas Rushing Game
This backfield’s still all about Josh Jacobs, who’s played between 60% and 78% of Raiders’ snaps in every game this season. Jacobs ranks fifth among all running backs in total touches, which is particularly impressive since many teams have not had their bye week yet. And while he’s only had one run of 10 yards or more, which is a bit concerning, Jacobs’ underlying metrics remain solid, as he ranks eighth in yards created and still ranks far above the historical trendline for avoided tackles based on the touches he’s already had this year. The problem in week 7 isn’t usage, it’s the matchup. Tampa Bay ranks second best in the NFL in adjusted line yards allowed and best in the NFL in yards allowed per rush attempt. As the 11th-highest running back on the main slate, you’re getting a slight discount on Jacobs’ massive workload, but he’ll likely need more than the receptions he’s been averaging or a couple touchdowns in order to have a great fantasy output. Against the Tampa Bay front seven, rushing inefficiency can be all but guaranteed.
Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Raiders 21.
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