Neither the Chargers or Jaguars have won a game since week 1. Now, they collide for a battle in Hollywood for the right to get their seasons back on track. Can Justin Herbert finally get his first win as a starter? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Jaguars – Chargers NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
Jacksonville Jaguars (20.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (29) – 4:25 ET
Jacksonville Passing Game
Gardner Minshew’s troublesome sophomore season continued in the Jaguars’ week 6 loss to Detroit. Minshew completed just 57% of his 44 attempts (his worst completion percentage of the season) for a paltry 5.5 yards per attempt average to finish with just 243 yards through the air. Minshew’s offensive line did him no favors either, as he was constantly under duress, finishing the day with 14 hurried dropbacks, also worst this season. In short, the Jaguars have been moving in the wrong direction since their surprise week 1 victory. Their week 7 opponent, despite only one win of their own this season, is favored by more than a touchdown at home, a strong indication that Vegas oddsmakers think these two teams are worlds apart in talent despite their similar records at this point in the season. And a quick glance at the underlying metrics, particularly for the Jaguars’ offense, helps illuminate why there’s such a discrepancy in these two squads. Minshew ranks 22nd in air yards per attempt, 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt, 23rd in fantasy points per dropback, 24th in clean pocket completion percentage and 35th in red zone completion percentage. No matter how you slice it, Minshew is struggling to get the ball to his play makers on a consistent basis.
Though the Chargers rank in the bottom half of the league in PFF’s team coverage rating, team defensive rating and right at league average in pass DVOA, Minshew’s metrics simply don’t inspire much hope that he can drastically outperform his salary as the 16th-highest-priced quarterback on the slate. While he does carry some rushing upside (he rushed for a score in week 6), and Awesemo.com’s projections rank him slightly higher than his salary based expectations, Minshew ultimately is a budget quarterback option who likely won’t tank your lineup by rostering him, but his ceiling is capped by his inaccuracy as a passer, and the general ineptitude of the Jaguars passing attack.
Another difficulty for fantasy gamers as it relates to the Jaguars’ offense is the weekly variance distribution of targets. Though it was fantastic to see DJ Chark commanded 14 looks in week 6 (the first Jacksonville player to command double-digit targets this season), he’s already the fourth player, with Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault and Chris Conley, to lead the team in targets in a game. In fact, the Jaguars have eight players who are averaging between 3.8 and 6.8 targets this season, the most in the NFL. The most consistent usage, surprisingly, has gone to Cole, who had a fantastic week 6, totaling 143 receiving yards on a whopping 184 air yards (third highest of any player in week 6) and a season-high nine. targets. Chark commanded even more air yards than Cole, tying for the second most on the week, which makes his 45 receiving yards all the more baffling. To Chark’s credit, he caught 100% of his seven catchable passes, a sign that a majority of his targets and air yards were completely uncatchable.
Shenault, who has the lowest average depth of target of any of Jacksonville’s big four receivers, has the most advantageous matchup of any Jaguars receivers against the Chargers secondary while lined up in the slot, but the Chargers are an above-average defense against the pass in nearly every credible metric, which makes all four of the Jaguars receivers extremely tough to bet on this weekend. The Awesemo projections are only slightly bullish on Shenault, whose salary is less prohibitive for fantasy gamers as the 42nd-highest-salary receiver on the slat. They also like Conley, whose salary is in the 70s among wideouts. They’re bearish on all other Jaguar passing weapons this weekend.
Jacksonville Rushing Game
The Chargers have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL this season, ranking third in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. When also considering that Los Angeles ranks right at league average in adjusted line yards and in points allowed per play, it’s safe to assume that the Chargers make stopping the run a priority regardless of the efficacy of that tactic (in terms of actually winning the game). That doesn’t sound great for James Robinson, but because of the consistent workload (he’s topped 16 opportunities every game this season) and expected game environment (a 49-point Vegas total), Robinson is a fine play as the 12th-highest-salary running back on the main slate. In each game he’s scored a touchdown, he’s been a top-10 back in fantasy football. The Awesemo projections see Robinson as a slight value compared to his salary based expectation.
Los Angeles Chargers Passing Game
In spite of an 0-5 record as a starter, there’s already little doubt that Justin Herbert is going to be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL for a long time to come. Herbert is completely outplaying his situation without his best offensive lineman, his best running back and his star receiver Keenan Allen for three quarters against the Saints in week 5. Nonetheless, Herbert put the Chargers in position for a game-winning field goal and completed even the necessary clutch pass of the game in overtime to Mike Williams on fourth-and-7, though Williams just happened to be stopped inches from the first down marker. The underlying metrics, particularly when contextualized for Herbert’s surroundings and lack of experience, are spectacular, He ranks sixth in true completion rate, fifth in true passer rating and third in yards per attempt. And it’s resulted in the eighth-highest fantasy points per game average in the NFL this season. The Chargers have their quarterback of the future, having proven himself through a gauntlet of starts that included the reigning champs and three straight weeks playing the NFC South’s toughest three squads.
Compared to that murderer’s row, the Jaguars and their fifth-worst defense (in points allowed per play) will likely be a welcome reprieve for the Los Angeles offense. The Jaguars are injured significantly on defense, with three linebackers and a safety all questionable for Sunday’s action, including former Pro Bowler Myles Jack. This could spell trouble for the Jaguars, particularly over the middle of the field, which is where Allen tends to do most of his damage. Coach Anthony Lynn has stated that Allen isn’t 100%, but having put in limited practices all week, the expectation is that Allen will go. If he does, he should command his typical sky-high usage.
Even after exiting week 5 early, Allen still ranks sixth in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share. Prior to week 5, he had seen three straight games of double-digit targets. Just as it had been in the years with Philip Rivers at the helm, we can safely say that, assuming health, eight targets is Allen’s floor regardless of game script. That’s the exact number that both Mike Williams and tight end Hunter Henry saw in Allen’s stead week 5, with the pair combining for 55% of the team’s air yards and three touchdowns. Williams had an average depth of target of exactly 20 and now has an ADOT of 18.4 since Herbert took over as the starter.
Even better for fantasy gamers, since week 2, no active player other than Allen, Williams, Henry or the running backs (see Los Angeles Rushing Game below) have commanded more than nine targets, making this offense a prime stacking candidate this weekend. Mass multi-entry players can absolutely consider Jalen Guyton, who has an average depth of target of nearly 26 heading into the weekend, or even Tyron Johnson, who only has one target –a 52-yard bomb of a completion from Herbert. Awesemo’s projections are high on this entire offense. In fact, the projections see every single relevant player in the receiving game as a value relative to salary-based expectations. It’s all systems go this weekend for Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Game
In the Chargers’ first action without Austin Ekeler, the Chargers surprised most in the football world by giving a majority of the backfield workload to Justin Jackson, who played on 59% of snaps and saw 21 opportunities in week 5’s loss. That is an eerily similar usage profile to Ekeler, who averaged a 65% snap share and saw between 20 and 23 opportunities in each of the Chargers’ first three games. Jackson even out-targeted backfield mate Joshua Kelley 6-to-1. It’s clear that Chargers have a predefined role for Kelley, and he’ll absolutely get his looks as well (he’s yet to record a game without 10 opportunities), but the workload isn’t quite there for Kelley if considering him for tournaments. He’ll need to fall into the end zone multiple times to be a strong play at his salary this weekend. Kelley hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 1, and he hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points since week 2. That makes Jackson, with the 26th-highest salary among running backs on the slate, one of the best values at any position. The Awesemo projections agree wholeheartedly, as Jackson ranks well above his salary ranking this weekend, particularly against a Jacksonville defense that ranks sixth worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last five weeks.
Prediction: Chargers 34, Jaguars 24
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