Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Week 7 Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons scored finally got their first victory into 2020 with a win against the Vikings. Now the middling Lions come to town looking to get to .500 for the first time this season. Can Detroit stop Atlanta from winning two in a row? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Lions-Falcons NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7

Detroit Lions (26.25) at Atlanta Falcons (30.25) – 1:00 p.m. ET

Detroit Passing Game

The Lions scored on their first two offensive possessions against the Jaguars in week 6 and never looked back, cruising to a 34-16 win over the struggling Jaguars. It was by no means Matthew Stafford’s greatest day, but it was more than adequate, as the Detroit running game was getting yards in chunks (they ranked 11th in the NFL in yards per attempt in week 6), and the Jaguars couldn’t generate nearly enough offense to stay competitive. Stafford’s 61% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt are essentially identical to his season-long averages, and he’s thrown between 31 and 33 passes in four straight contests as well. Most encouraging for Stafford was his (and his offensive line’s) ability to avoid pressure. After two straight weeks allowing four-plus sacks earlier in the season, the Detroit offensive line has dropped to just 1.5 sacks allowed per game over the last two weeks. It will be vitally important that the trend continues in week 7, as Atlanta’s defensive line is ranked 10th best in the league by PFF and just pressured Kirk Cousins on 15 dropbacks a week ago, seventh most in the NFL.

Assuming Stafford’s upright and able to get the ball out in time, he should find plenty of opportunities to hit his star receiver Kenny Golladay against a Falcon’s secondary that ranks 21st in PFF’s team coverage grade, 30th in Football Outsider’s pass DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt, though Atlanta’s secondary was noticeably improved with re-insertion of rookie A.J. Terrell, who earned a top-25 defensive grade among cornerbacks in week 7 and, at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, is the logical choice to guard the gargantuan Golladay. Still, at 6-foot-4 and 213 pounds, Golladay will have a size and speed advantage over most of the Atlanta secondary. PFF ranks any one-on-one matchup with the Falcons’ Kendall Sheffield as the most receiver-advantageous matchup of the entire weekend. At a salary of $6,700, Golladay isn’t an inexpensive option by any means, but he’s a value due to his sky-high ceiling and as an attractive pivot play off of the highest-salary receivers.

Over the past two games, Marvin Jones and tight end T.J. Hockenson have combined to command almost an identical weighted opportunity rating to Golladay, but it’s Hockenson who leads the team in red zone targets, end zone targets and touchdowns during that span. He ranks 11th in the NFL among tight ends in target share since week 3. The Lions also seem to be moving away from Danny Amendola as full-time contributor, as his snap share has dipped to 44% over the last two weeks. He’s been squeezed for playing time for a secondary tight end (typically Jesse James, who averages two targets a game), as well as receivers Jamal Agnew (22% of snaps) and Marvin Hall (16% of snaps). All are strong considerations in mass multi-entry tournaments, as the game environment should set up nicely for multiple Lions to contribute significantly in the receiving game. Hall, with only three targets over the last two games, but an average depth of target of nearly 30 yards is especially interesting as a contrarian dart-throw throw option, who only needs to connect with Stafford on a singular long bomb to return value.

Detroit Rushing Game

After outpacing second-round pick D’Andre Swift 36 to 10 in opportunities in the two weeks leading up to the Lions’ bye, Swift finally got an opportunity for a full workload and performed magnificently, scoring two touchdowns, reeling off a 54-yard breakaway run and finishing with the third-most rushing expected points added in the NFL. His four targets were tied for 10th among all running backs. Peterson still had 16 looks and found his way into the end zone, so he’s by no means irrelevant moving forward, but his upside in DFS at this point in his career is virtually none. Fantasy gamers are much better off rolling with Swift, even with slightly increased ownership, in the hopes of catching a true changing of the guard, but Atlanta’s run defense has been much more stout against the run than the pass, ranking in the top 10 in both yards per attempt allowed, and rush DVOA.

Atlanta Passing Game

The Falcons finally got in the win column after putting up 40 points on the struggling Vikings defense who ranks last in expected points allowed per drive and look to continue their momentum into a winnable matchup against the 2-3 Lions. While the Detroit secondary isn’t underperforming to the extent of Minnesota’s, Detroit’s 14th-ranked team coverage grade, 15th-best points per play ranking and 12th-ranked pass defensive DVOA are strong indicators that Detroit’s secondary is right at league average. At its best (and when healthy), this offense, led by Matt Ryan, is anything but average.

Fantasy gamers enjoyed a relative salary discount last week on Julio Jones in week 6, as he carried a questionable tag heading into last Sunday’s game. Jones generously rewarded those who risked putting him in lineups, scoring two touchdowns and totaling 137 yards on a 27% target share, finishing with a whopping 33.7 points, the second-highest fantasy output for any receiver on week 6’s main slate. While this week doesn’t present quite as spectacularly for Jones, it’s hard to move off of a player who has consistent, immense usage (he also ranked second among all players in week 6 in red zone target share). Even as the salary creeps above $7,000 to the sixth-highest receiver on the slate, Jones remains a solid high-floor, high-ceiling option, whose Awesemo projection is right in line with his salary based expectation.

The Falcons’ own 1B, Calvin Ridley (who still leads the NFL in total air yards), had what fantasy gamers are starting to come to expect from the third-year receiver with Jones in the lineup, commanding 19% of targets and 22% of air yards, though those percentages would likely be increased had Ridley not gotten banged up in the second half of last Sunday’s game. He carries no injury designation in this week’s practice reports, indicating he’s good to go for week 7. What makes Ridley more difficult to trust is his sky-high salary, as he ranks within the top five receivers. He’ll need over 22 points to return value. With Jones back at full strength, that’s a hard bet to make. But it’s far from out of the question, particularly if the Lions, who traditionally rank among the league leaders in man coverage, find their rookie Jeff Okudah completely overmatched by Ridley. Amani Oruwariye is projected to spend most of the day covering Jones, but it should be noted that Detroit has not used shadow coverage on any receiver this season. They’ll likely use a plethora of hybrid approaches to slow down Atlanta’s top two weapons, but on paper, this secondary looks exploitable for Ryan, Ridley and Jones. It could absolutely be another blow-up day for the trio.

After two weeks commanding over 22% of the team’s targets to begin the season, Russell Gage’s target share hasn’t topped 14% in three weeks. However, in an Atlanta offense that averages 44 dropbacks per game, that’s not an inconsequential amount of expected volume for him. He is a solid contrarian stacking option this week in a game environment that is very likely going to be conducive to scoring.

Atlanta Rushing Game

Fundamentally, starting running back Todd Gurley is in a strong spot this weekend as a home favorite on a team with one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. There may not be any technical analysis that moves this article’s author off that position, either. Detroit ranks among the 10 best matchups for running backs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, and Gurley has logged two straight contests with a 32%-plus opportunity share, 13th best among running backs during that span. Gurley’s stock takes a bit of dip due to the pass-happy nature of the Falcons, but with plenty of plays and points expected in this contest and a healthy amount of opportunity, Gurley’s expected production could vastly outpace his 15th-highest running back salary this weekend. Awesemo’s projections are exactly in line with his salary based expectation, but the ceiling is there for Gurley this weekend.

Prediction: Falcons 29, Lions 28.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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