Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Week 7 Green Bay Packers vs. Houston Texans

The Packers were downright embarrassed in week 6 against the Buccaneers. Now they head to Houston to face a Texans team that came up short in an overtime thriller against the Titans. Can the Texans, led by Deshaun Watson, turn their season around with a victory against the NFC powerhouse Packers? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Packers – Texans NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.

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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7

Green Bay Packers (29.25) at Houston Texans (26.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET

Green Bay Passing Game

Week 6 was a Sunday to forget for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who had his worst fantasy finish in two years (27th) on the back of an abysmal 46% completion rate and an unprecedented two interceptions (Rodgers didn’t have a multi-interception game at all in 2019).  His 4.6 yards per attempt was nearly half of his previous-low for the season, and his quarterback expected points added of -13 was 26 points lower than his worst previous score, and third worst among all quarterbacks last week. Week 7 serves as a status-check on Rodgers because, on paper, this week’s matchup against Houston defense that ranks sixth worst in PFF’s team defensive grade appears highly exploitable, at least for the Rodgers we saw before the Packers’ week 5 bye.

Davante Adams returned to the Green Bay lineup after a two-game absence and played at his usual level despite suffering the downstream effects of Rodgers’ mess of a day. Fantasy gamers should be thrilled to see Adams in on 91% of snaps, running 38 routes and commanding 10 targets. His six receptions for 61 yards is just a typical floor result for a player who went right back to his target-hog status. Getting open should come much easier for Sunday for Adams, as the Texans rank inside the bottom 15 in pass DVOA, bottom 10 in team coverage grade and bottom five in yards per play allowed over the last three weeks.

The Packers’ leader in air yards in week 6 wasn’t Adams, however, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His 131 air yards ranked within the top 10 receivers last week. He’s now in the top 20 in the entire NFL in air yards per game since week 3 and is emerging as the primary deep threat for an offense desperate for passing weapons outside of Adams. PFF ranks Valdes-Scantling’s matchup with Vernon Hargreaves as one of the most advantageous of the slate, as Hargreaves ranks inside the bottom-10 among all cornerbacks in defensive grade. Outside of Bradley Roby, who should have his hands full most of the day guarding Adams, Houston doesn’t have any corners ranked inside the top 50 in PFF’s defensive grade. It also could be a week to look back at Robert Tonyan, who only had three catches for 25 yards in the Packers’ week 6 loss but looks to have a plus-matchup against a Houston secondary that allowed eight catches to Titans’ backup Anthony Firkser. But it should be noted that Tonyan has only been playing on 63% of Green Bay’s snaps since week 4. Compare that to wideout Malik Taylor, who hasn’t produced with the opportunity, but who’s also played on 61% of Packers’ snaps, which is more than Darrius Shepherd (though Shepherd’s out-targeted Taylor 5 to 2 over the last 3 games). The Green Bay auxiliary is absolutely in play this weekend as solid stack options with Rodgers, and in MME play fantasy gamers could even go for Equanimeous St. Brown (also two targets since week 3) or hybrid plater Tyler Ervin (four targets) as dart throws, as the Packers look to return to their high-scoring ways. But none of their possible production comes at the expense of Adams, who will have every opportunity to be the most targeted and the most productive wide receiver on the slate on a weekly basis. Because of the salary-based trade-offs fantasy gamers have to make in order to fit Rodgers and Adams into their DFS lineups, the pair will be low-owned relative to their probability of being the highest-scoring quarterback-receiver duo on the main slate.

Green Bay Rushing Game

Even before being torched by Derrick Henry in week 6, Houston was a top-five matchup for running backs in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, and fantasy gamers should be going right back to the well, and target a Houston rush defense that ranks sixth worst in PFF’s rush defense grade once again this weekend. Despite still playing on only 60% of the Packer’s snaps, the Packers are finally using Aaron Jones as a workhorse back, as he’s now logged three straight games at or above 30% of Green Bay’s opportunities. His 34% mark ranks ninth among active running backs this season. But his 41 total yards was an egregious step backwards for the previously consistent Jones, who hadn’t seen a yardage total below 75 yards all season prior to week 6’s blowout loss. He was nearly outgained by backfield mate Jamaal Williams (34 total yards), who continues to play on 45% of the Packers’ snaps but has only received a 15% opportunity share one time this season. Jones is an obvious play this weekend, as the running back on the favored team in the highest Vegas total game of the week. But Williams, who already has a game with over 100 total yards this season, could be in line for added work in this advantageous matchup as well. Williams will be a great low-owned pivot play with a high ceiling in week 7.

Houston Bay Passing Game

It may have come in a losing effort, but Deshaun Watson had his best game of 2020 in the Texans week 6 loss to the Titans. Watson was second among all quarterbacks in expected points added and top 10 in passer air conversion ratio in week 6 en route to 335 yards and four touchdowns. He was the top performer in predictive efficiency and ranks third in the metric over the last four weeks. He’ll likely need to replicate his performance again in week 7 if the Texans are to have any of keeping pace with a Packers offense that shouldn’t have any trouble putting up points. At the very least, the interim coaching staff in Houston seems content to consistently put the ball in Watson’s hands and let him try to win the game. Houston is one of seven teams that ranks above league average in true early-down pass rate and in neutral early-down air yards per second. Even before the Packers’ defense allowed Tom Brady and company to put up 31 offensive points a week ago, the Packers were showing signs of weakness on the defensive front. They now rank 10th in PFF’s team coverage grade in spite of cornerback Jaire Alexander’s continued top-three play at the position.

In a positive development for fantasy gamers, the Texans as a passing unit are getting more advantageous to stack in matchups, with a majority of targets and air yards coalescing around the Texans’ two top wideouts, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Since week 3, Cooks and Fuller have seen a near identical target share, though Fuller has the lead in air yards share, red zone target share and end zone target share. Fuller is the unquestioned 1A option when he’s on the field in spite of him finishing just 3 points ahead of Cooks in fantasy production last week. Cooks isn’t being used in as much of a deep-threat role as he has in recent years; his average depth of target is less than tight end Darren Fells. Fells (8.5 average depth of target) and fellow slot specialist Randall Cobb (8.0 average depth of target) are the only other receiving options with double-digit targets since week 3.

With Jordan Akins (concussion) inactive, Fells enjoyed a massive workload in week 6, playing on 88% of snaps, commanding 18% of the team’s air yards and catching all nine targets, including a score. It won’t always be as great of an afternoon as that for Fells, especially if Akins returns to the lineup in week 7, but the Packers appear more vulnerable against tight ends than they have previously, if Rob Gronkowski’s week 6 breakout was any indication, making Fells, and even Akins if he returns, interesting speculative plays at the tight end position this weekend.

Houston Rushing Game

David Johnson’s eighth-best opportunity share among running backs is still overshadowed by the fact he’s simply not utilized in the passing game on a consistent basis. Week 6 wasn’t any different in that regard, as Johnson had his sixth straight week with 30% of the Texan’s touches and his sixth straight week with four targets or fewer. Still, Johnson’s 78 total yards per game ranks just outside the top 20 among all backs, and against a Packers run defense that ranks 25th in DVOA and league average in yards per carry, there’s a decent chance Johnson can have an efficient day on the ground. As the team continues to work back Duke Johnson, who was back up to a 10% opportunity share in week 6, David Johnson needs multiple touchdowns to hit the type of score fantasy gamers need to have in order to take down tournaments. Johnson’s a fine play in season-long leagues, but without a multi-touchdown game or a boost to his receiving workload, he’ll continue to fade into DFS obscurity.

Prediction: Packers 31, Texans 21

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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