The Panthers’ win streak came to an end after a loss to the Bears in Chicago, and now they head to division rival New Orleans, who gets their All-Pro wide receiver back from injury and a subsequent suspension. Will the Saints return to their high-flying ways with Michael Thomas back in the fold, or will the Panthers still one in the Superdome? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 7 NFL DFS and NFL Daily Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Panthers-Saints NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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NFL Daily Fantasy Football + NFL DFS Matchups Column for Week 7
Carolina Panthers (21.25) at New Orleans Saints (29.75) – 1:00 p.m. ET
Carolina Passing Game
Sunday’s week 6 loss to the Bears was far from the best day for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, as he completed a season-low 55% of passes for just 216 yards on 7.4 yards per attempt (both also season lows) with two interceptions, making it the third multi-interception game in five weeks for the Panthers’ signal-caller. The advanced metrics are still kind to Bridgewater overall, as he ranks eighth in the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and 12th in EPA/CPOE composite ranking, which means there could be brighter days ahead, especially against less-strong defenses. And luckily for Bridgewater and the Panthers, that appears to be the case against New Orleans in week 7, as the Saints rank 30th in team coverage rating, and 10th in yards allowed per play. There’s multiple signs that this game has a high potential to shoot out beyond its 51-point Vegas total. With Saints getting Michael Thomas back in the lineup for the first time since week 1, the most likely game flow involves the Panthers being forced to keep pace with one of the league’s best offenses (finally) at full strength. That makes it imperative that Bridgewater exploit advantageous matchups in the secondary while avoiding the ferocious New Orleans pass rush, which ranks seventh best in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Carolina’s offensive line, which ranks 21st in PFF’s team pass block rating, has their work cut out for them this weekend.
D.J. Moore trounced all other Panthers receivers in weighted opportunity share last week, earning nearly double the opportunity share of Robby Anderson. He ended up hauling in five of his 11 targets for 93 yards and a solid 14-point showing, but Moore continues to underperform relative to his usage, which, when factoring in air yards, is among the highest in the league. Anderson continues to convert air yards into receiving yards at an above-average rate, and did so again last Sunday with an average depth of target over 5 yards greater than Moore’s. Moore’s and Anderson’s salaries on DraftKings make them particularly appealing options on the main slate. With the team likely forced to continue passing, both have the ability to earn 10-plus targets and 40% of the team’s air yards. Together with Bridgewater, they make one of the most valuable three-player stacks on the weekend, as Anderson and Moore combine for more true weighted opportunity share than any other receiving duo in the NFL. Awesemo’s projections for the weekend love all three players relative to their relatively affordable salaries.
Assuming Curtis Samuel (leg) plays this weekend, he should return to his typical 7-12% of targets. But besides the aforementioned two (and Mike Davis), Samuel, who ranks 89th among receivers in true weighted opportunity share, and Ian Thomas, who has seven targets over the last three weeks, are decent mass multi-entry considerations. If Samuel sits, a bump in targets for Thomas isn’t a guarantee, but it’s worth noting that the Saints have been the second-worst team in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends. Still, the most likely scenario, if Samuel sits, is more targets funneling to Moore, Anderson and Davis.
Carolina Rushing Game
It may be our final week of the Davis experience as Christian McCaffrey progresses toward a return to action. Davis has a floor of 40% of the Panthers’ opportunities (he’s achieved that in all but one game since week 3), and has games of six, eight, nine and 10 targets during that span as well. New Orleans ranks fifth in adjusted line yards allowed and first in the NFL against the running back position (allowing 8.5 less fantasy points per game than opponents’ average score), making him a flimsier play than recent weeks, including last week’s contest versus Chicago. Nonetheless, the workload itself, in a game environment where the Vegas total alone implies tons of points should be scored, is worth betting on when it comes to Davis. The fact that he’s been efficient with his touches is an added bonus. Even as the eighth-highest-salary running back and with the seventh-highest projected ownership on the main slate, Davis should be considered a value play with one of the best high-floor/high-ceiling combinations of any player in week 7.
New Orleans Passing Game
The Saints escaped with a victory in week 5, with a little help from a missed field goal in the final seconds of regulation by the Chargers’ Michael Badgley. Nonetheless, they come out of their bye week in second place in the highly competitive NFC South. Brees had his most productive week of 2020 against the Chargers in week 5, with the added benefit of playing an extra drive in overtime, finishing with 325 yards passing on 47 attempts. But Brees’ inefficient play is absolutely a point of concern, particularly because Brees’ deep attempts already rank 32nd in the NFL. Brees’ clean-pocket completion percentage has dipped from previously elite levels, currently ranking 12th among signal-callers, and Brees struggles even more when under duress, ranking 25th in pressured completion percentage. Ranking 18th in fantasy points per dropback and outside the top 20 in dropbacks per game, Brees’ salary as the 13th-highest quarterback on the slate seems like too steep based on the underlying metrics. The Awesemo projections are quite bearish on Brees relative to his salary-based expectations.
At the very least, the return of Michael Thomas from a high ankle sprain should increase the efficiency (and the upside) of the Saints’ offense as a whole. That bump in production is baked into the Saints’ implied team total, which is approaching 30 points, but the Panthers have been excellent defensively to begin 2020. They’re currently the toughest matchup for opposing receivers (using schedule-adjusted fantasy points) and 11th in PFF’s coverage grade. Nonetheless, Thomas has a non-zero chance of having a vintage “2019 Thomas” day, commanding 12-plus targets and putting up 100-plus yards receiving. Thomas had nine games, including one against Carolina, where he met the 12-target/100-yard threshold a year ago. Thomas is the third-highest-salary wide receiver on the slate, meaning there’s no margin for error, but the upside is still undoubtedly there for the 2019 All-Pro.
Beyond Alvin Kamara (see New Orleans Rushing below), every other receiving option likely becomes a touchdown-dependent, low-volume, tournament-only option. Emmanuel Sanders (22% of targets since week 2) and Tre’Quan Smith (14%) are the most likely to continue to see similar usage, but with Thomas back in the fold, they’re likely too thin of plays to be considered for any format other than MME tournaments. Tight end Jared Cook, with highest average depth of target on the team, is also an intriguing play at face value. But with the ninth-highest salary at the position this weekend and stuck competing with Sanders, Smith and Deonte Harris for non-Kamara and non-Thomas touches, fantasy gamers are taking a risk rostering Cook in lineups this weekend.
New Orleans Rushing Game
Kamara ranks second in expected fantasy points per game, first in running back target share, first in running back receiving yards, first in yards per route run and first in fantasy points per game. He’s a heavy favorite playing at home, and his team’s implied for more than three implied touchdowns. The Panthers are the easiest opponent (in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) in the NFL against running backs. This isn’t something fantasy gamers should overthink. Despite Latavius Murray being involved on early downs, Kamara is the consistently utilized backfield weapon at the goalline, ranking seventh in the league in red zone toouches, and first in total touchdowns. His salary as the second highest running back on the slate, and near-20% ownership projection, shouldn’t scare off fantasy gamers from leaning on Kamara as a cornerstone option in any format. The Awesemo projections for Kamara are right in line with his salary-based expectations.
Prediction: Saints 31, Panthers 24.
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