The Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown delivers the stats and storylines you need to dominate the week in fantasy football. Matt Savoca breaks down all the angles on every team and every game, including the first divisional showdown between Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Buccaneers – Saints.
CLICK BACK to the main fantasy football matchups breakdown main page for the rest of the game-by-game analysis.
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Buccaneers (23) at Saints (26.5) – Sunday 9/13/2020, 4:25 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Buccaneers and Saints square off in arguably the premier matchup of the main slate. With a high over/under (49.5) and plenty of stars on both offenses, we can expect some very high viewership and increased DFS ownership for this highly anticipated game. No team enters the 2020 season with more lofty expectations than the Buccaneers, who are going all in on this season in an unprecedented way. Such plans tend to accelerate when Brady and un-retired Rob Gronkowski choose a team as their preferred post-New England destination.
With quarterback whisperer Bruce Arians helming the offense, two of the best receivers in the NFL today out wide and a terrifying young defense expertly coached by Todd Bowles, there’s no reason this team can’t be as good as the public and Vegas expect them to be (9.5 projected wins). Chris Godwin emerged as a star in 2019, ranking second in receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game, all on 5% less of the team’s weighted opportunity than Mike Evans. Evans (himself the WR5 last season) and Godwin were both major beneficiaries of Jameis Winston’s high-volume, low-efficiency offense. Winston threw for nearly 950 more air yards than any other quarterback, on a league-high 39.1 pass attempts per game a year ago. While we should expect Brady to push the ball downfield to both play makers, and to be more efficient than Winston, it’s difficult to see either player repeating their per game volume (in terms of targets or air yards) as last season. (Update: Due to a hamstring injury, Evans is far from a lock to play. If Evans can’t go, Gronkowski could be in line for a higher snap share and target share in his first game as a Buccaneer. We should also expect contributions from Scotty Miller and Justin Watson.)
The Bucs’ three tight ends will also command plenty of targets, particularly closer to the goal line. Gronkowski was quite inefficient as a Patriot in 2018 with only 1.91 yards per route run and giving Brady a rating of 98.3 when targeted, 55th and 23rd, respectively. Still, he’s likely a single deep ball or touchdown away from viability in fantasy football. How the tight end snaps are divvied-up will be something to monitor, as Gronkowski will certainly cede time to both O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, who each commanded 9% of the Bucs’ weighted opportunity a year ago.
The early-September signing of Leonard Fournette after his surprise cut in Jacksonville, makes projecting this backfield very difficult, particularly in Week 1. It’s reasonable to believe the Fournette, despite his tarnished reputation, still possesses elite athleticism (96th weight-adjusted 40-yard dash) for a 240-pound back. He’ll immediately push Ronald Jones, the presumptive starter until this week, for touches. LeSean McCoy will also see 4-8 touches, likely as a passing-down back (again taking away volume from the receivers). This is one of the murkiest backfield situations in football, but with massive touchdown upside, it’s possible one (most likely Fournette) will emerge with enough volume to be an every-week starter in fantasy football.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Matchups and NFL DFS Breakdown
The Saints, themselves no stranger to expectations, are projected for half a win more than their Week 1 opponent and are favored by 3.5 at home on Sunday. Brees at age 41 is the younger of the quarterbacks in this matchup, but at times last season, he began to show signs of diminished arm strength. Despite his typical pinpoint accuracy (79.6% true completion percentage, No. 1 in the NFL via PlayerProfiler), Brees ranked 30th in passes of 20 or more air yards with three per game. And there’s now a fear he’ll be taken off the field in goal line situations for Taysom Hill. He’ll likely remain focused on short-area passes to superstars Michael Thomas, No. 1 in nearly every statistical category for receivers a year ago, and running back Alvin Kamara, who made headlines twice this past week — once after contract negotiations that got ugly for a moment and again when it was reported that he received an epidural shot in his back. Though he’s practicing in full ahead of Week 1 and should be projected for a normal workload both as a rusher and receiver, preseason injuries are absolutely always worth monitoring when it comes to workhorse backs. Latavius Murray, 30, is still projected to serve as the primary backup to Kamara (Murray himself had two game as a top-five back in Kamara’s stead during 2019), but expect the Saints to carve a role for hybrid back Ty Montgomery.
Tampa’s defense will likely be up for the challenge, however. A top-six defensive unit in 2019 via Football Outsider’s DVOA and seventh in defensive pressure rate, Tampa’s front seven will need to disrupt Brees’ timing-based attack, and their secondary must limit Thomas in order for the Bucs to have a chance at victory. The Saints will also need contributions from receivers not named Thomas in order to be at their most effective. Jared Cook was a touchdown machine last year and is the most obvious third option for Brees, but don’t forget about Tre’Quan Smith. The 2018 third-rounder has the requisite athleticism to take the top off of defenses, and if the Bucs hone in Thomas, Kamara and Cook, Smith could easily surprise with a splash game in Week 1 and a big fantasy football score.
Prediction: Bucs 33, Saints 30
Alternative Scenario: There’s no stopping either team. Arians and Sean Payton completely outduel their defensive counterparts. Brees and Brady are both unconscious. Saints 48, Bucs 45 (OT)
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