Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Week 6 New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins surprised the entire NFL world by crushing the 49ers in week 5, and now get to face the league’s de facto minor league squad in the Jets. Does gang green have any shot at all to escape an 0-6 start? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Jets – Dolphins NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.

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Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for Week 6

New York Jets (19.25) at Miami Dolphins (28.25) – 4:05 p.m. ET

New York Jets Passing Game

The 0-5 Jets will trot out 35-year-old Joe Flacco as their quarterback once again this Sunday, filling in for a mercifully injured Sam Darnold at the helm of the least explosive offense in the entire NFL. In his first start in week 5, Flacco threw for a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt on 33 passes, with one touchdown and no interceptions, good enough for the 19th-best fantasy total among quarterbacks in last week. The Dolphins defense is tied for fourth worst in the league in yards allowed per play, right at league average for points per play allowed, and sport the 26th overall team defensive grade on PFF. But the Arizona defense ranked just as poorly, and as expected the Jets couldn’t get anything done through the air, scoring just a measly 10 points. It’s difficult to see this game going much differently, and it’s harder to get excited about putting Flacco in fantasy lineups, even though he has just the 26th-highest salary of any quarterback on the slate.

Devoid of any outside weaponry at wide receiver, with free agent acquisition Breshad Perriman and second-round pick Denzel Mims still on the shelf, the list of productive Jets is exactly one name long – Jamison Crowder. Crowder has been the singular bright spot in the hellscape that is the Jets franchise. He currently has the fifth-highest true target share and 15th-highest true air yard share of any player in the entire NFL. He proved he was capable of producing regardless of quarterback, posting his third straight start with 100-plus receiving yards. He’s yet to see fewer than 10 targets, and he’s hauled in at least seven of those targets in 100% of his starts as well. It’s utterly shocking to hear that the second-best wide receiver in the NFL in fantasy points per game is a member of the Jets, but here we are. Plug your nose and place him in your lineups this weekend; as the 16th-highest-salary wide receiver on the slate, he represents on of the best values at any position.

Filling the void left by the aforementioned injured players, Jeff Smith has stepped into a sizable role over the last two weeks. Despite a quiet 23 yards receiving in week 5, he saw 11 total targets, including two in the red zone, and ran a route on 100% of the Jets’ passing downs. Still priced at $3,000, Smith is the least prohibitive access to eight-plus targets on the slate, but they’re Jets targets, so take that as you will. He’s the only other Jets player worth considering even if Perriman, who is practicing on a limited basis this week, returns to the field this weekend for New York.

New York Jets Rushing Game

Presumed starting running back Le’Veon Bell, who had just returned from injured reserve in week 5, was released midweek. Officially free from the grips of Adam Gase, Bell walks away with over $28 million pocketed and a legitimate chance to win a Super Bowl as a member of Kansas City Chiefs.

Picking up the pieces will be Frank Gore and his 50th overall juke rate, a 0% breakaway run rate, and 3.2 true yards per carry. Gore already has three games with 15-plus opportunities, and if the Jets actually do make it to the Dolphins’ goal line, he’s likely first in line for carries inside the 5. Still, if the Jets were at all rational (and let’s be completely honest, that is no guarantee), they would spend a majority of the remainder of the season seeing what they have in fourth-round pick La’Mical Perine. Perine, who also chirped about his playing time on Twitter after last Sunday’s loss, has yet to see more than a 34% snap share and saw zero snaps a week ago. In normal circumstances, I’d say something along the lines of “it would be an absolute shock if we didn’t see more Perine in week 6 and beyond,” but absolutely nothing shocks me, nor should it shock you with the Jets franchise. They simply epitomize dysfunction.

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Miami Passing Game

Week 5 was a vintage Ryan Fitzpatrick performance. As heavy underdogs against the defending NFC champions, Fitzpatrick passed for a blistering 12.5 yards per attempt and a 79% completion percentage en route to his third game this season with 300-plus yards passing and his fourth game with no interceptions. Taking into consideration the difficult early schedule (that has already included three 10-win teams from 2019), the Dolphins’ 2-3 record is downright impressive.

And now he gets the Jets, who are just as unimpressive on defense as their sputtering offensive, sporting a bottom-five secondary (PFF’s coverage grade) and bottom-10 pass rush (via PFF’s team pass rush grade). Their one defensive bright spot, however, is slot cornerback Brian Poole, who’s ranked as PFF’s seventh overall cornerback thus far. That could theoretically make life much more difficult this week for tight end Mike Gesicki, who has averaged 26 slot snaps per game. But Miami has been using a significant amount of four-wide sets, which has allowed wide receiver Isaiah Ford to command 32 slot snaps per game. Since Poole’s physically incapable of covering both, we should expect heavy usage to the player Greg Williams defense chooses not to hone in on, most likely Ford. If that’s the case, Ford could be a steal in fantasy lineups this weekend. He’s the 65th highest salary wide receiver on the slate this weekend, and his Awesemo projection slides in significantly higher than that. Gesicki, as the second-highest-salary tight end, is much tougher to trust.

DeVante Parker remains the team’s leader in target share and receiving yards, and PFF ranks his matchup with cornerback Pierre Desir as one of the top 10 most advantageous matchups for corners. Though Parker’s metrics (besides an 88% contested catch rate) have been unspectacular, he remains a threat to command 8-12 targets (as he already has twice this season). If Fitzpatrick sees the matchup as much in Parker’s favor as the metrics do, Parker could absolutely be in play at his $6,300 salary on DraftKings. The Awesemo projection is equally bullish on Parker as it is on Ford, and even loves Fitzpatrick despite a salary that puts him within the top 12 signal-callers on the main slate.

Miami Rushing Game

Myles Gaskin having success should no longer surprise fantasy gamers at this point in the season. Week 5 marked Gaskin’s third game with over 80 total yards, and he’s yet to record fewer than 60 yards in a contest this season. The usage also sprung from 14 opportunities (as was to be expected with the Dolphins playing with the lead) back up 21 opportunities. That’s now two games in three weeks with 20-plus looks for Gaskin, making him completely viable in all fantasy formats this weekend. It’s never a terrible idea to play running backs who are 10-point home favorites. As the 19th-highest-salary running back on the slate, Gaskin, like the rest of his Dolphins’ teammates, seems set up to produce and presents excellent value for fantasy gamers.

Prediction: Dolphins 21, Jets 7.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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