It’s the first ever NFC-only battle for former MVPs Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. After an embarrassing loss in week 5, can Brady play spoiler to Rodgers and the Packers’ perfect season through five weeks? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 11 games on tap for Week 6 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Packers – Buccaneers NFL DFS picks for your daily fantasy football lineups.
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Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column for Week 6
Green Bay Packers (27.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26.5) – p.m. 4:25 ET
Green Bay Passing Game
The Packers return to action after their week 5 bye in sole possession of first place of the NFC North, and with Rodgers arguably the front runner for the NFL MVP (at least in PFF’s MVP index). There aren’t many metrics where the Packers offense doesn’t shine, as they rank sixth in true drive success rate and first in both expected points per drive and expected points added per play. Even without Davante Adams for the last 10 quarters, Rodgers hasn’t had any problem eviscerating any and all defenses in his path thus far. Defensively, the Buccaneers appear at first glance to be middle of the road as a defense unit, ranking 12th in points allowed per play. But they’re also one of three teams allowing fewer than five yards per play this season, and they boast PFF’s No. 1 team coverage rating. It’s likely the toughest defense Rodgers has faced this season, and yet, it isn’t such a difficult a matchup that one should be fading Rodgers or his top receiving options entirely.
Speaking of top receiving options, the aforementioned Adams appears poised to make a return to the starting lineup and will likely step right back into an unprecedented alpha role within the passing game. Ten-plus targets is never out of the question for Adams, and he doesn’t even need that many to have a monster game. He’ll likely see plenty of cornerback Jamel Dean, who ranks third among all cornerbacks in PFF’s defensive rating. On the opposite side of the field, Carlton Davis has been almost equally as impressive for Tampa Bay, ranking inside the top 25 cornerbacks in that same metric. Nonetheless, it’s not safe to assume that the Buccaneers will be able to bottle up Adams entirely. Even as the highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate, Adams has a unique role on a uniquely productive offense and should be treated as such. He’s a fantastic option in all fantasy formats, even with a sky-high projected ownership, over 21%.
With Adams back in the lineup, all other Packers’ receivers need to be considered auxiliary weapons at best, with no guarantee of anything beyond four targets. However, it’s encouraging for fantasy gamers that Rodgers was able to be equally productive while tossing 50% of his pass attempts to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan, the darling of week 4 with three touchdown catches against the Saints, as Green Bay will likely need to lean on its secondary weapons at some point down the line. Neither are obvious value plays at their respective salaries this weekend, though one could do worse than Valdez-Scantling as the 40th-highest-salary wide receiver on the slate. Each deserves consideration as a contrarian plays in tournaments, especially if one were to believe the Buccaneers secondary is capable of shutting down Adams. This article’s author is certainly skeptical of that notion.
Green Bay Rushing Game
The Buccaneers defense is simply in another stratosphere in run defense. Their yards per attempt allowed is a staggering 18% better (per play) than the next closest team, and over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 2.4 yards per attempt, while the next best defense has allowed 3.2. The season-ending injury to Vita Vea absolutely hurts Tampa Bay against the run, as he was one of PFF’s top-graded players at any position this season. But defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who perennially prioritizes the stopping of the opponent’s rushing attack, certainly has his defense playing to his liking against opposing backfield. Aaron Jones is always a threat for multiple scores and consistently sees a third of Packers’ targets, so the floor is raised slightly, but it’s very hard to see Jones, as the third-highest-salary running back on the slate, returning value in this spot. His 2.6% ownership reflects that as the consensus opinion among fantasy gamers.
Tampa Bay Passing Game
The Buccaneers may have a winning record through five games, but they remain far from a team without flaws. Brady, mental errors in the two-minute drill aside, simply hasn’t played particularly efficient football this season. He ranks outside the top 20 in true drive success rate and outside the top 25 quarterbacks in expected points added per play, only good enough for 25th overall among all starters in quarterback composite efficiency. Over the last three weeks, the team has ranked just 14th in yards per play and 16th in points per play, and while they’ve been without star wide receiver Chris Godwin for much of that time, this offense isn’t anywhere close to putting up the explosive numbers many were anticipating for Brady and his high-profile weapons in the receiving game. Against Green Bay in week 6, Brady faces an even higher rated team (in PFF’s team coverage rating) than Chicago’s vaunted secondary from a week ago. And in that contest he was only able to muster 253 yards passing and one touchdown. The Packers rank eighth as a team in pass coverage, while the Bears ranked 10th, so the matchups seem fairly comparable. The one major difference this week for Brady, of course, would be the return of Godwin, who has been in and out of the lineup for much of 2020 with multiple injuries. Adding a receiver like Godwin likely increases the explosiveness of the offense as whole and opens up more of the field for Mike Evans, who has held to 41 yards (on a healthy nine targets) in week 5. But the payoff from the duo may have to wait a week, as Evans will likely be dealing with PFF’s top-rated corner, Jaire Alexander, for much of the afternoon.
Godwin has exited both of the contests he’s been active for early, but has managed to secure seven and six targets, including three in the red zone, one of which he’s converted to a score. The Packers’ cornerbacks behind Alexander, Will Redmond and Kevin King are ranked right around league average in PFF’s defensive grade, so this looks like a sneakily advantageous matchup for Godwin. With Justin Watson (out, leg), Scotty Miller a non-factor and O.J. Howard lost to injured reserve, tight end Tanner Hudson was a surprise contributor last week, seeing four targets and 24% of the Buccaneers air yards, with an average depth of target of 16. With the Buccaneers closer to full strength, Hudson is nothing more than a dart-throw tournament play at minimum salary, but a touchdown isn’t entirely out of the question either. None of the Buccaneers passing options — quarterbacks, receivers, nor tight ends — project as values (relative to their respective salaries) this weekend according to Awesemo.
Tampa Bay Rushing Game
With Leonard Fournette getting in limited practices this week and trending towards playing, that means there’s likely not enough quality usage to justify rostering Ronald Jones as the 15th-highest-salary running back on the slate. With Fournette out of the lineup the last two weeks, Jones enjoyed a 38% share of Tampa Bay’s opportunities, fourth highest among all players in the NFL during those weeks. And he was effective with that usage, ranking third in total yards per game during that time. It wouldn’t be crazy to go back to Jones if Fournette sits, but Fournette (who was technically active for week 5 but did not play) likely will suit up and subsequently would eat into Jones’ workload considerably, making this a touchdown guessing game. If both are active, Jones is technically still the preferred option, as he’s averaged double the amount of targets per game compared to Fournette. But relative to salary, both are like stay-away options for this article’s author.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Packers 27.
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