The Chicago bears head to Atlanta for inter-divisional showdown at Mercedes-Benz stadium. Can Mitchell Trubisky keep up with Matt Ryan and the Falcons? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 3 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Bears – Falcons.
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS HUB
For a full list of all our NFL DFS and fantasy football content this season, check out the NFL content schedule.
And don’t forget to join Matt Savoca and Dave Loughran, every Thursday morning at 11 ET on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Chicago Bears (22) at Atlanta Falcons (25.5) – 1 p.m. ET
Bears Passing Game
If the Bears were projected to be in a low-scoring slugfest, it would be relatively difficult to find any reason to be enthused by Trubisky or his passing options in fantasy football. But this game projects to be anything but that. The Falcons defense comes into Week 3 graded sixth-worst against the run by PFF and a mediocre 14th in pass coverage. Meanwhile, the Bears as an offense have graded better than many expected, at least by PFF standards, currently standing tied for seventh in overall offensive grade, bolstered by an offensive line that ranks fifth best in pass blocking grades. That’s great news for Trubisky, whose underlying metrics are underwhelming at best, ranking 24th in clean pocket completion percentage, 30th in pressured completion percentage and 21st in adjusted yards per attempt. Encouraging for Trubisky is his willingness to take deep shots. His eight deep passes ranks ninth among quarterbacks, but the simple fact is most of the passes are getting there, as he ranks 31st in the NFL in true completion percentage. His fantasy output is buoyed by scrambles, and he seems up to his old habits again this year, as his 3.5 rushes per game rank 15th and 1.5 red zone rush attempts per game rank eighth in NFL. He’s yet to find the end zone on the ground, but it’s something we’re bound to see soon.
Allen Robinson’s six deep targets rank second among all wideouts — he’s caught one of them. Nearly every usage metric you can find makes Robinson stand out (he ranks ninth in true weighted opportunity share, my receiver usage metric from the weekly data deep dive), and he’s caught both of his contested targets so far this season. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with Allen Robinson. It’s simply hard to be efficient in this Bears’ offense, with the quarterback playing as erratic as he is. PlayerProfiler has Robinson charted as the 98th-most accurately targeted receiver in the NFL. Awesmo’s projections indicate taking the risk may be worth it this week, as he’s projected eighth among receivers on DraftKings, ahead of his WR12 salary.
As mentioned on Thursday’s weekly matchups livestream, Anthony Miller is now a part-time player for the Bears. His 44% snap share ranks 103rd among receivers, and his 61% route participation ranks 86th. In this context, his nine targets through two weeks seem rather impressive (he ranks 24th in targets per snap). Still, it’s interesting to see players like Darnell Mooney (10% true weighted opportunity share) and Javon Wims (6% true weighted opportunity share) on the field as much as Miller. Miller’s 16% true weighted opportunity share still ranks second on the Bears and 55th among wide receivers, but it appears that personnel groupings are keeping Miller on the sidelines more than fantasy gamers would hope, lowering his weekly ceiling. Awesemo’s projections are extremely bearish on Miller compared to his pricing at the position on DraftKings.
Jimmy Graham, however, is a full-time player in this offense, though with little fantasy output to show for it. He’s received 11% of the Bears’ true weighted opportunity share and is 23rd among tight ends in targets. But the production just hasn’t been there. He’ll need a touchdown to have fantasy viability, but the Falcons are exploitable over the middle of the field. In a matchup like this, he must be considered as a low-priced, plug-your-nose-and-play-him tournament option. He’ll need 15.3 points to reach triple value on DraftKings, a total that’s possible for 33-year-old Graham to attain.
Related NFL DFS + Fantasy Football Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- First Look: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
- NFL DFS Picks: Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 3 Fantasy Lineup Constructions
- From the Slot: Week 3 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
- The Slant And Go: Big NFL DFS Value In Week 3 As Injuries Plague The League
Bears Running Game
It may take a little time for the public to catch up, but it’s very possible we’re witnessing David Montgomery turn into the fantasy football workhorse back he was drafted to be last year. On an offense more efficiently helmed, the above-average usage (15 rushes and three targets) and 100-plus total yards per game average through the first two weeks would be a much larger storyline. The efficiency metrics look great for Montgomery as well, as he’s run a route on 45% of the Bears’ passing plays (20th among running backs) and ranks 12th in yards per route run. Furthermore, he has relegated Tarik Cohen to gadget player responsibilities, at least early on this year.
Cohen is averaging just six rushes and 1.5 targets, though the Bears have drawn up four red zone looks for the speedster. That means he’ll need to see work in the passing game more in line with what we’ve seen in previous years or capitalize on his slightly increased red zone looks in order to be fantasy viable. In this game, Cohen has a few outs and could be considered for tournaments. For this reason, and the expected high ownership on Montgomery, Awesemo’s projections come in quite bullish on Cohen, projecting him to finish 22 spots higher than his current DraftKings price of RB47.
Editors Note:
Hedging your NFL DFS lineups has never been easier or more efficient, with the new Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Simply click on the best that you want to make and OddsShopper searches all the big betting sites and finds the best price for your bet.
Looks like there’s a half point bargain either way this week, depending on the book you choose. Click on the image below to start shopping!
Falcons Passing Game
The lingering injury to Julio Jones is one of the most important news items to keep track of this week. Despite a litany of other weapons in the Falcons’ receiving game, if Jones has to sit for the Falcons due to his lingering hamstring issues, it’s a massive knock to the projection totals of this entire team, particularly Ryan. Jones failing to play may very well change how fantasy gamers approach this game as a whole.
Assuming the Pro Bowler plays, however, Ryan will once again be asked to win games through the air (his 45 pass attempts per game rank second in the NFL), spreading the ball amongst his four top options. Ryan has been a voluminous passer in all areas of the field, ranking top 10 in red zone attempts, deep attempts, total air yards, average depth of target and total passing yards en route to six passing touchdowns, good for second in the league through two weeks. He’s averaging an efficient 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt and tacking on 2.5 rushes per game as well. With a middle-of-the-road net passing advantage (indicating that the Bears’ PFF defensive grades may not be quite as high as they have been in previous years) Ryan has the weapons to produce top-10 quarterback numbers in fantasy and could easily push for top three with an efficient day passing.
The aforementioned Jones has been overshadowed early on by Calvin Ridley. The 2018 first-rounder has a higher true weighted opportunity share than Jones and 14th among all receivers. His 146 air yards per game rank second, so while we know touchdown regression is coming, Ridley still absolutely has the underlying metrics that make you comfortable playing him in lineups, especially if Jones is in. If Jones doesn’t play, it would be a mistake to simply assume that the targets and air yards would just be absorbed mostly by one person. More likely, it would reduce the entire pass volume of the offense, though if there were any team that was an exception to that rule of thumb, it would be the 2020 Falcons.
Jones’ metrics are nothing to scoff at, either. His 21% true weighted opportunity share ranks 34th among receivers, and his 31% air yard share ranks second on his team but 26th among all wideouts. His 132 air yards per game through two weeks are sixth in the NFL, as is his typical 5-for-7 in contested catch situations. A hamstring injury is a major issue for all wide receivers, but particularly Jones, who relies on his leaping ability and elite catch radius to win 50-50 balls. The Bears will likely match Jaylon Johnson on Jones, who has been PFF’s third-ranked cornerback this season. If Jones misses, this frees the talented Johnson to focus on Ridley, once again limiting the upside of the entire passing game.
Russell Gage continues his hot start. He ranks 27th among wideouts in yards per route run with 2.03 and is 13th in receiving yards per game. His 7.5 receptions per game are sixth in the league, and at 5,600 on DraftKings, he presents an extremely interesting option, as he only needs 16.7 points to reach triple value. Awesemo projections are right in line with the WR37 price tag. Hayden Hurst is also a full-time player in this passing offense, participating in 80% of Atlanta’s passing routes. His 6.5 targets per game are 10th at the position, and his 16% air yard share ranks 12th. Despite a true weighted opportunity ranking of 16, because of the pass volume and shootout potential, Hurst is absolutely an option worth considering at the position, even as the ninth-most expensive tigth end on DraftKings on the main slate.
Falcons Running Game
It may not be as pretty as it once was, but Todd Gurley still has enough usage to be considered in fantasy football lineups every single week. When considering game flow, he has the necessary ceiling to in play in tournament lineups as well. His 17.5 rush attempts per game ranks sixth at the position, though his 2.5 targets per game are less encouraging. Still, he’s seen five total red zone touches, good for seventh among running backs thus far. The underlying metrics are about as poor as you’d expect. Gurley ranks 50th in yards per touch and 37th in both yards per route run and yards per reception. On top of this, Atlanta posses by far the lowest net run advantage of any team on the slate according to PFF. Even assuming this game shoots out, it wouldn’t be the most insane idea to leave Gurley out of your player pool, but do so at your own risk. He still has the potential to be a heavily utilized player in a game with a ton of scoring.
Spelling Gurley is the two-headed monster of Brian Hill (23% of snaps) and Ito Smith (21% of snaps). Hill has yet to see a red zone touch. Smith is simply a spell back, offering three carries a game and 1.5 targets. Hill is the only Falcons running back with a single evaded tackle this season. He has one.
CLICK HERE TO RETURN TO THE FANTASY FOOTBALL MATCHUPS HUB
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
