Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | Week 2

Ben Roethlisberger looked good in his first action in nearly a year for the Steelers. Can he keep the good times rolling when the Broncos come to town?For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Broncos – Steelers.

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Denver Broncos (17) at Pittsburgh Steelers (24) — Sunday, 1 p.m.ET

Denver Broncos Breakdown

The Broncos had a shot to win their win Monday night matchup against the Titans in Week 1 but fell short, in part due to what appeared to be clock-management blunders by the coaching staff. Still, Denver still led Tennessee in per-drive efficiency but failed to come away with scores on too many drives, coming in at 31st in drive successes rate in Week 1. Without Courtland Sutton available, Jerry Jeudy operated as the primary receiver, earning a 29% target share. Noah Fant and Tim Patrick also earned target shares north of 20%. Despite a bad drop that could have helped the Broncos steal victory, Jeudy had a very promising start to his career, thrust into an alpha receiver role much quicker than expected. With Sutton expected to suit up this Sunday, expect Jeudy to hover in the same range as Fant did in week 18, earning 4-7 targets on a weekly basis as Drew Lock’s second option.

Phillip Lindsay’s injury creates some clarity in what looked like a murky situation heading into last week, as Melvin Gordon is now the undisputed lead back for the Broncos. And he made solid use of his opportunity, rushing for 78 yards on his 15 carries, tacking on three receptions and finding his way into the end zone as well. This should be our weekly expectation for Gordon going forward. Even in a middle-of-the-road offense, Gordon now will get the usage needed to be a premium option in fantasy lineups. One concerning note: Gordon was spelled for Royce Freeman at the goal line, only earning 50% of the Broncos goal-line work. It would be a shame for Freeman to act as a touchdown “vulture,” but if Week 1 is any indicator, this could very well be the case.


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Pittsburgh Steelers Breakdown

The Steelers seemed ecstatic to have Roethlisberger back behind center. After an abysmal offensive showing in 2019 without their injured quarterback, Pittsburgh took a few drives to get into a rhythm. But then they never looked back, ultimately scoring on 50% of their drives against the Giants in Week 1, one of only 10 teams to accomplish that feat. As expected, they were much more aggressive on early downs and in neutral game scripts (12th in Week 1) than in 2019, much closer to previous Roethlisberger-led teams. Diontae Johnson led the team in passing volume, commanding 31% of Pittsburgh weighted opportunity rating but finishing just six catches for 57 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster was a distant second, at 17%, but his two touchdowns completely saved his day. Still, it’s encouraging underlying usage statistics for Johnson, who the Steelers clearly have high hopes for in 2020. James Washingtons three targets were certainly a disappointment, as were Eric Ebron’s two. It looks like either of them will need a touchdown in order to be valuable fantasy assets unless something changes.

James Conner got the start in the Steelers’ backfield Monday night but was quickly bounced from the game due to an ankle injury. In his place, Benny Snell ran for an efficient 113 yards on 19 carries, and there’s already speculation that Snell has earned more playing time even after Conner has recovered from his injury. Though he didn’t see any looks in the passing game, if Conner ends up missing time, Snell should absolutely be on DFS players’ radar as a lower-priced option who could get upwards of 20 opportunities as a home favorite. It’s easy to see this game getting out of hand quickly, followed by the Steelers relying on Snell for mop-up duties in the second half.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Broncos 20

Alternative Scenario: The Broncos, even without some of their top play makers on defense, frustrate Roethlisberger and stymie the Pittsburgh offense. They steal one from Pittsburgh late. Broncos 24-Steelers 21.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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