Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers | Week 2

The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC in Week 1, led by former MVP Aaron Rodgers. This week the rival Lions come to town, fresh off of a disappointing loss to the Bears. Can they rebound against their division foe? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup, every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 13 games on tap for Week 2 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form, every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Let’s get into Lions – Packers

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Detroit Lions (21.5) at Green Bay Packers (27) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Detroit Lions Breakdown

The Lions let a surefire victory get away from them last Sunday against Chicago. In Week 2, they find themselves up against an even tougher opponent on both sides of the ball, and Kenny Golladay still isn’t practicing. Not good. In Golladay’s absence last week, the Lions receivers struggled to make big plays against the Bears’ secondary. Despite a solid eight targets, Marvin Jones underwhelmed as Matthew Stafford’s primary alpha receiver, finishing the day with a mere 55 receiving yards. The target and air yard leader was actually Quintez Cephus, who popped off the page in this week’s NFL Deep Dive. We’ll need to keep an eye on the target distribution as the weeks go on for the Lions, because Cephus, despite only hauling in three grabs, seems to have carved out a role for himself in this passing attack.

The Detroit running game, as expected, was by committee, but it had an expected touch leader: The old veteran Adrian Peterson. Peterson saw one of the highest utilization rates in the NFL on Sunday, receiving a touch on over 75% of his snaps. D’Andre Swift was worked into the game early and often, however, and even received a goal-line look that he was able to punch in. That’s the good news for Swift. The bad news is that he dropped an easy game-winning touchdown catch, overshadowing an otherwise impressive debut.


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Green Bay Packers Breakdown

The Packers came out firing against the young Vikings secondary, and Rodgers absolutely made the most of it. Rodgers had a field day against Minnesota, passing for 364 yards and four touchdowns, all while not turning the ball over at all. His connection with Davante Adams reached new heights, as Adams hauled in 14 of 17 targets for a whipping 156 yards and two touchdowns. While we can’t expect that type of output between the duo each and every week, we got a glimpse of the massive weekly ceiling that this pair can produce in advantageous matchups. And it just so happens that they find themselves in such a matchup again this week. The only other receiver of note for the Packers is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had nine targets, but his 20% of the team’s weighted opportunity is a fraction of the 41% Adams received. Allen Lazard (14%) was a distant third in the Packers passing game.

Green Bay scored points on 75% of their drives in Week 1, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Aaron Jones eventually found the end zone, saving what otherwise was a ho-hum stat line. His 4 receptions were a nice added bonus to his floor, and helped him crest the 20-point threshold in DraftKings scoring. As long as Rodgers keeps slinging it like he did last week, Jones will continue to find himself in positions to have monster games. Jamaal Williams did see four receptions of his own alongside 11 of the Packers’ carries, so this backfield isn’t entirely Jones’, but it appears rookie A.J. Dillon will be worked into the fold slowly. He only saw two carries in his NFL debut.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 17

Alternative Scenario: Rodgers isn’t done going full scorched earth on secondaries, and the Lions are his next victim. He throws another four touchdowns. Packers 35, Lions 27.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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