DraftKings and FanDuel broke up Wild Card Weekend into two main slates. For this edition of The First Look, I’ll be breaking down the best NFL DFS Pick values at each position on both slates to open the week.
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Wild Card Weekend First Look: DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Picks
NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill — The Titans and Ravens will face off in a rematch of their Wild Card bout from last year. Unlike last year, their 2021 matchup is expected to be a barn burner. Vegas has the total at 54.5 points and the spread just over a field goal in favor of the Ravens. The game has the highest total of the entire weekend. Vegas has the Titans leading all underdogs (and even one favorite) in scoring. From a DFS perspective, swapping down from Lamar Jackson to Tannehill saves $1,200 on DraftKings and $1,100 on FanDuel despite less than 1 fantasy point per game separating the two. Tannehill is top five in touchdown rate, yards per attempt and quarterback rating this season. The fantasy difference between him and Jackson will likely be overstated this week.
Josh Allen — The Saturday slate doesn’t have the same dichotomy at quarterback. The jump from Tom Brady to Allen is less expensive on both sites and nets you an average of 4 more fantasy points based on both players’ season-long averages. Allen’s team lead’s both slates in implied team total (29.5) and plays in a game with a 52-point total. The Colts are known for having a stout defense but opponent strength is not a factor in Allen’s model. On the year, Allen is averaging 284 passing yards and 2.3 scores per game. In matchups versus top-10 defenses (per Pro Football Focus), Allen has posted 315 yards and 2.5 scores per game.
NFL DFS Picks: Running Back
J.K. Dobbins — Dobbins missed Week 12 while on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Since returning in Week 13, he has been on a tear. In the past five weeks, Dobbins is seventh among running backs in rushing yards (425) and fourth in rushing touchdowns. Most importantly, Dobbins is the trusted back for Baltimore when they get in a scoring position. Dobbins has eight of the team’s 12 running back carries inside the five yard-line since Week 13. The Titans are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and Dobbins’ team is favored against them.
Cam Akers — Despite exiting in Week 15 with an ankle injury, Akers’ volume in his previous four games has been absurd. He is averaging 21.5 carries and 2.8 targets per game over that span. His backups have been non-factors. The Rams are seventh in the NFL in rush attempts per game and now have a work-horse back.
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NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver
Corey Davis — Davis may not be his team’s No. 1 receiver but he is more than a secondary receiver. Since Week 7, when Davis and A.J. Brown both made the lineup for the first time since the beginning of the year, Davis has a 21.3% target share and a 33.4% air yards share (all air yards data through Week 16). That gives him a 55.3 WOPR, good for 20th among wide receivers if extrapolated to the full season. His quarterback is wildly efficient and should be forced to throw more often than usual as an underdog.
Terry McLaurin — There is simply no reason not to keep going back to Terry McLaurin at $7,100 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings. McLaurin is second in the NFL in air yards share (47.1%) and trails only Michael Thomas, who has the benefit of a small sample working for him. McLaurin’s air yards share is nearly five percent higher than the next closest player. In a game that Washington is likely to be trailing for at least three quarters, expect the Football Team offense to run through McLaurin.
NFL DFS Picks: Tight End
Cole Kmet — In Week 10, Kmet played on 70% of the Bears offensive snaps. It was a career-high mark for him and has only gone up since. Dating back to that week, Kmet is 5.1 targets per game. Jimmy Graham has played on half of the team’s snaps once over his past six games and is posting fewer targets than Kmet each week. Kmet is only $5,300 on FanDuel and his $3,000 price on DraftKings is actually below that of Graham.
Rob Gronkowski — Antonio Brown joined the Bucs in Week 9. Since then, Gronkowski’s aDOT has shot up to 12.2 after starting the year at 10.3. He has also been used in the red zone frequently. His 14 targets inside the opponent’s 20 and 10 targets within the 10 yard-line. As both a deep-threat and a touchdown scorer, Gronk checks the boxes we care about most at any pass-catching position.
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