We’re a week away from the one-month mark of the 2020 NFL season, as we enter Week 4 to make our NFL DFS picks for FanDuel lineups. As injuries have been amounting at an unprecedented rate, the curveball thrown at us this week involves the first game postponement due to COVID-19 between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers. In regards to fantasy, while the COVID postponement presents itself as more of a season-long obstacle, the minor issue involving NFL DFS picks will be where the field ownership in fact spills over to.
With some stellar matchups on paper, Week 4 marks a new first for the NFL, besides the first postponement. New England quarterback Cam Newton will be heading into Chiefs Kingdom to take on undefeated Kansas City, and Newton’s first time playing against Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are looking to turnaround their 1-2 start to the season heading into Motown to square off with the Detroit Lions, who are coming off a surprising road win against Kyler Murray‘s Arizona Cardinals.
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Week 4 FanDuel NFL Picks Based Off Awesemo’s Grades
FanDuel NFL Pick: QB Cam Newton ($7,900): Points A, Value A
As preseason skeptics of Cam Newton have begun to silence themselves, the question of whether or not he would mesh under the Bill Belichick “Patriot Way” has gradually become evident after the first three weeks. From a fantasy perspective, over the course of three weeks Cam Newton has produced one really good game (25.7 FDFP), one outstanding game (35.58 FDFP), and one dud (12.18 FDFP). Drawing a matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs defense may in fact prove much to Newton’s benefit when looking at how his strengths stack up against them.
When looking over the options in Cam Newton’s arsenal heading into Sunday afternoon, his receiving corps of Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd have proven themselves reliable but don’t particularly standout against the Kansas City secondary. Outside of Edelman, who had a monster Week 2 at Seattle, the New England receivers have not been the beneficiaries in this run-first Patriots offense. Cam Newton is averaging 30.3 pass attempts and 20.7 completions per game for a 68.1% completion rate, just below the league averages of 35.5 pass attempts and 23.5 completions (although his completion rate is higher than the 66.2% league average).
Although the passing numbers deduct from the allure of stacking Newton with his receiver options, what we all knew of his personal rushing prowess prior to this season has been all-the-more prominent in 2020. Cam Newton has the most rushing attempts by volume ahead of any Patriots player, at 35 carries. He also holds the second-most in team rushing yards at 149 just behind Sony Michel, while his value in this vein isn’t merely on raw total merits (although they help).
Cam Newton’s rushing attempts per game at 11.7 is averaging one full carry per game additionally than Lamar Jackson‘s 10.7 rushes per game (just to give you an ideal comparison to a quarterback of his ilk). While his rushing yards per game aren’t quite up to Lamar Jackson’s output (60.7 RuYPG), the 49.7 yards-per-game are certainly nothing to scoff at and pick up most slack from the passing yardage department.
Considering the holes in the opposing Chiefs defense, Newton’s got a definite opportunity to produce solid fantasy numbers in Week 4. Kansas City has allowed the second-most yards on the ground to the quarterback position at 42.66 rushing yards per game, as well as having a severe tackling problem, surrendering the most missed tackles per game at 12-per, just behind the New York Jets (12.25 Missed Tackles per game). Newton is shedding tacklers while averaging 12.7 yards after contact, the seventh-highest among quarterbacks.
With his reduced ownership on FanDuel projected as the tenth-highest owned quarterback on Sunday’s main slate, Cam Newton offers considerable value to your rosters in Cash Games and GPP tournaments.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 4.7%
FanDuel NFL Pick: QB Jared Goff ($7,500): Points B, Value A
With Cam Newton out due to testing positive for COVID-19, fear not, because there are other quarterbacks on the FanDuel NFL DFS slate who provide terrific fantasy-point upside and value by means of ownership. And while the masses may flock to the likes of Deshaun Watson (another great option), my attention is dialed-in on Jared Goff & Co.
It feels as though Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams have flown under the radar for the past three weeks, and for a culmination of reasons undeclared. I would suspect that one reason, most obviously, is that Russell Wilson has been dominating the spotlight (and rightfully so). Another reason could be his lower number of pass attempts this season, ranking 25th among quarterbacks with 90 attempts. Regardless of the reason why he’s been unpopular, I love the spot here for Jared Goff and the Rams receivers against a lackluster New York Giants defense, who just allowed 343 passing yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions to San Francisco 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens.
Besides his fantasy blunder in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys (that could be another reason for the lower ownership), Jared Goff has been more than getting the job done for fantasy rosters, as he’s managed 23.98 and 28.24 FanDuel Fantasy Points in his last two games. Although the New York Giants defense is allowing 18.3 FDFP per game to opposing quarterbacks (10th in NFL), part of the reason has been that teams have played with a lead and the leeway to run the ball, garnering 75 rushing attempts against them all season (ninth in NFL).
On the other hand, the Giants are allowing 7.94 yards-per-attempt to opposing quarterbacks (ninth-most in NFL), and are facing a disadvantage against the Rams receiving corps in regards to talent. Between Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds, and especially Cooper Kupp, Goff has an explosive arsenal at his disposal who should shred this Giants secondary. Cooper Kupp plays a vast majority of his snaps in the left and right slots where he’ll be seeing a lot of rookie cornerback Darnay Holmes, who Kupp has a four-inch height advantage over and should dominate the matchup. Robert Woods has averaged 14.69 FDFP per game this season and fits affordably in a stack with any of Kupp, Reynolds, and tight end Tyler Higbee when paired with Goff.
With the Giants defense surrendering 32.8 FDFP per game to opposing wide receivers, it’s hard to go wrong with who you stack with Jared Goff (should you elect to). The Rams getting stiffed by a pass interference call late in the fourth quarter against the Buffalo Bills should have this entire Los Angeles team revved up and ready to take advantage on both sides of the ball. With Jared Goff coming in dead-even with Russell Wilson on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL DFS Big Board at a rank and rating of 54, you’re getting Goff at both a significant price and ownership discount over Wilson. Considering a 48-point game total set by oddsmakers, this game isn’t expected to be a defensive duel by any means, and all the reason more to consider being over the field ownership on Jared Goff.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 6%
FanDuel NFL Pick: RB James Robinson ($6,600): Points B, Value B
Although I could’ve easily taken the high road at the running back position here by delving into the obvious play in Alvin Kamara (who is indeed an excellent selection this weekend), I find the matchup for a much lesser-owned James Robinson may go ignored while being very worthy of discussion as Robinson heads into Cincinnati to take on the winless Bengals.
James Robinson exited his Week 1 following a rather mediocre performance in a win against the Colts, churning out 9.5 FanDuel Fantasy Points on 16 carries for 62 rushing yards. Since then, the past two weeks have been a welcomed improvement in regards to fantasy output, racking up 19.5 and 27.9 FDFP in Weeks 2 and 3. The rookie has been involved in 53.4% of offensive snaps while accounting for 64.5% of the Jaguars’ rushing attempts. Robinson has also seen an uptick in targets week-to-week: leaping from one target in Week 1 to, to four targets Week 2, and six in Week 3. He’s also averaging the second-most yards-per-target on the Jaguars offense at 11.7 YPT, just behind wide receiver D.J. Chark at 15.6 YPT.
Facing a Cincinnati run defense adds fuel to the fire for Robinson, as they’ve surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL to opposing running backs, coughing up 466 rushing yards and four touchdowns to the position. The running backs who’ve rushed against the Bengals have proved efficient as well, averaging 5.24 yards-per-carry in three weeks of action. Despite the deficiency in run-blocking up front for the Jaguars rushing attack, I believe they should hold their own against this Bengals front seven who’s endured the third-most rushing attempts against a defense all season with 89 rushing attempts-against.
Coming in on Awesemo’s Big Board ranked 26th overall out of all players at every position offered on FanDuel for Week 4 (including DST), James Robinson is an excellent play in a great spot, at a slight discount as well.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 10.5%
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
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- From the Slot: Week 4 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
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FanDuel NFL Pick: WR DeVante Parker ($6,500): Points A, Value B
The Miami Dolphins finally got on track in Week 3 with a road win over Jacksonville, and with a pedestrian performance by DeVante Parker. Yet against the Swiss cheese Seattle secondary, Parker has the advantage in speed and athleticism capable of fantastic fantasy numbers. Trailing just Mike Gesicki in total targets (17 vs. 19 targets), and trailing Myles Gaskin for total receptions (14 vs. 15 receptions), DeVante Parker still has the most yardage accountability among Dolphins players, averaging 28% of all receiving yards for Miami this season.
Seattle has obviously been setting some historic numbers behind Russell Wilson this year on offense, while their defense provides all the more reason for Wilson to have to throw the ball. Giving up the most passing yards in the NFL thus far in 2020 with a massive 430.7 receiving yards allowed per game, DeVante Parker looks to be among the main stakeholders on the Miami offense to soak up that seismic number of yards allowed through the air.
With his time split between both outside pre-snap positions on the field, Parker will be looking to be covered by Shaquill Griffin amidst his time on the left, Tre Flowers on the outside-right, and both in which Parker has a considerable talent advantage over. I believe this game may be indicative of a shootout with a Vegas game total of 54 total points, and DeVante Parker is among the most desirable pieces in what’s assumed-to-be a high-scoring affair, ranking 15th overall with a 72 rating on Awesemo’s Big Board for FanDuel.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 10.4%
FanDuel NFL Pick: TE Darren Waller ($6,700): Points A, Value C
It’s very hard to deny the beast in this situation, regardless of a busload of ownership coming intact with Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller. Not only is the matchup with the Buffalo Bills that much more welcoming given their ineptitude against the tight end position, but Waller has showcased why he is Derek Carr‘s go-to guy in Vegas by a 100% increase in targets over the next Raiders member in line to him (28 targets vs. Hunter Renfrow‘s 14).
Following a Week 3 loss to the Patriots which he only saw four targets all game, Waller will be aiming to rebound against this Buffalo Bills defense who’s surrendered the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season with 245 receiving yards allowed (just behind New Orleans, who Waller also railroaded). I would say the outing in New England deserves a mulligan being that it was doomed for Waller from the get-go, as Belichick is notorious for doing all in his power to take away an opponent’s best on-field weapon.
With Buffalo allowing the tenth-most FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to tight ends as added roster incentive (12.7 FDFP/G), Darren Waller also represents 29.4% of all targets on the Raiders offense and has remarkable upside granted the opponent provides the leeway. I wouldn’t shy away from the play all for the sake of the unappealing chalk factor, as Darren Waller’s matchup upside and target volume roll out the red carpet for massive fantasy production. To which I would much rather be a part of the matching field ownership percentage (at the very least), instead of not.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 16.8%
Contrarian Stack: Saints
With Michael Thomas already declared inactive for New Orleans in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions, things are already looking bleak to fans of the Fleur-de-lis, but I believe in Drew Brees and the rebound ability in this matchup with Detroit’s defense.
The Lions are surrendering the seventh-most FanDuel Fantasy Points to opposing quarterbacks (22.5 FDFP allowed), along with the seventh-most to opposing running backs (26.3 FDFP allowed), which bodes incredibly for Alvin Kamara and Brees thanks to an advantageous offensive line in both the running and passing attacks.
New Orleans is seeking a win to right the ship in the NFC South and get back to a .500 record, which against a Matt Patricia defense seems like a recipe for success in both reality as well as fantasy.
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