FanDuel Weekly: FREE Week 5 FanDuel NFL Picks Based On Awesemo’s Grades

As postponements involving COVID-19 swirl amongst headlines, we set out to make our FanDuel NFL DFS picks for Sunday’s main slate with the pieces we can at least confirm will participate (as of writing this just before the start to the weekend). So long as we’re not shocked and awed come Saturday and/or Sunday morning once again this week, we’ll have a bevy of excellent games on paper with NFL DFS picks for FanDuel to select from in confidence.

Right when we were starting to get comfortable with the slate of games heading into this weekend, the list of COVID-impacted teams is unfortunately growing at a daily rate, with the most recent being the New York Jets sending their entire staff home from facilities on Friday, placing their matchup with the Arizona Cardinals in jeopardy (and almost assuredly not happening on the Sunday main slate). The Buffalo Bills were another team that many of us were looking forward to rostering against the Tennesee Titans, but they’ll be removed from slate contention Sunday as well (and quite possibly seeing the Titans issue a forfeiture in the process). But so long as we’re able to retain the remaining nine games (including all players of course), Week 5 has plenty of intriguing NFL DFS action on FanDuel in store for us.

Week 5 FanDuel NFL Picks Based Off Awesemo’s Grades

FanDuel NFL Pick: QB Lamar Jackson ($8,900): Points A, Value A

The Baltimore Ravens have been underperforming by contrast to looming expectations and their dynamic 2019 season. Yet, with an AFC North showdown with the rival Cincinnati Bengals on the Sunday itinerary, Jackson has an excellent matchup at hand in an opportunity to thrive on the fantasy scoreboard.

Although the 2019 NFL MVP hasn’t had the fantasy numbers this season of his past historic year, Jackson through his first four games of the season hasn’t been bad either. Part of the underlying factor in his abilities capped thus far have been due to the Baltimore offensive line allowing Jackson to be sacked 11 times all season, although that number is up just one sack from last season through four weeks.

However, it’s Jackson’s pass attempts that are down 27% from last year at this point in the season, as he’s made 67 completions on 98 attempts in 2020 (where in 2019 through his first four games he went 87-of-134). While he’s thrown for just one interception (he has two through Weeks 1-4 in 2019), Jackson’s shy by three passing touchdowns at this point by comparison. Where Jackson is known for his rushing prowess, his numbers are nearly identical through Weeks 1-4 in 2020, scrambling for 239 rushing yards on 39 attempts and a touchdown (36/238/1 in 2019 Weeks 1-4). Jackson has averaged 21.31 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game, with a season high of 27.5 FanDuel points (Week 1 vs. Cleveland) and a lowest point of 14.18 FanDuel points

With all of that recollected for comparison’s sake, what it boils down to is essentially just being short the additional three passing touchdowns in excess from the Week 1 blowout of the Miami Dolphins in 2019. That’s really been about it in the grand scheme of deficits, and with that I believe we’ve identified the lofty public expectations for Jackson that come accessory to a recent MVP award. And now with a divisional matchup against a leaky Bengals defense, Week 5 may be within reach of a monster game from Jackson.

The Bengals defense has been representative of the “They Are Who We Thought They Were” statement of years past (albeit in a much less complimentary context to that of Dennis Green’s phrasing). With noticeable weaknesses in both the run defense and secondary, Jackson has the realistic opportunity to have a field day against this group. While Cincinnati is allowing 4.7 yards per carry to opposing rushing quarterbacks right around the middle of the pack (15th in NFL), let’s take a gander at who the Bengals have faced thus far: Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz and Gardner Minshew. Enough said.

Registering an average of just two sacks per game (eight total sacks in 2020), the Bengals have merely managed 31 sack yards for loss (or 3.87 yards lost per sack). That metric stands out like a sore thumb against a quarterback of Jackson’s talent caliber, especially when his rushing numbers are every bit as potent at this point in 2020 as last season. Despite his pass attempts being down, his completion rate is modestly higher (68.3% in 2020; 64.9% 2019), and as mentioned above, his passing touchdowns are simply shorted the difference of last season’s Week 1.

Another number that’s down by comparison is the percentage of projected field ownership, where Jackson was all the rage at this time last year. That’s the cherry on top of it all, and rostering Jackson against the Bengals under those circumstances is all-the-merrier.

Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 10.4%

FanDuel NFL Pick: RB Todd Gurley ($6,700): Points C, Value C

The 0-4 Atlanta Falcons have a head coach on the hot seat with plenty of questions as well as injured receivers. With a hobbled Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, whose statuses remain in question, there’s feasible potential for an increased workload in store for Gurley against the Carolina Panthers.

Gurley is certainly being load-managed with cognizance of his injury history and degenerative knee issue. Yet this may come as a surprise, but Gurley is actually in a tie for ninth-most carries in the NFL at 65 carries alongside Aaron Jones, Melvin Gordon, and Jonathan Taylor. Upon learning that, the confidence in rostering Gurley begins to stabilize. Ready for another zinger? Todd Gurley is just 19-yards shy of premium-priced Ezekiel Elliott on the season (Gurley’s 254 RuYds to Elliott’s 273), and on five less attempts, with matching touchdowns at three-a-piece.

Now that we got some of the “Saturday Scaries” out of the way early (a phrase that should be trademarked by Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker), let’s take a look at the Carolina opposition Gurley will be treading against on Sunday. The Panthers have surrendered the second-most FanDuel Fantasy Points to opposing running backs (32.1 FDFP/Game), allowing a league-high seven touchdowns on the ground to the position and most in the NFL (tied with Las Vegas). This comes on a lower number of rushing attempts as well (86 RuAtt vs. CAR), although allowing the second-most receptions to the running back position at 37 receptions for 244 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Atlanta’s offensive line should also have an advantage in both pass-protection and run-blocking over Carolina’s base 4-3 front seven. This assumes to provide Matt Ryan ample room and time to operate through progressions, further setting up Gurley for success on rushing downs (which he’s the focal point of on 62.1% of Falcons snaps). Also of note, Carolina is having plenty of trouble bringing the pressure behind the line of scrimmage, sacking quarterbacks just three times all season for a meager 11 total yards lost by opposing offenses.

The one potential downside is the increased field ownership, presumably given the pending injury status of Ridley and Jones. But he’s certainly not close to being top chalk for the week, and Todd Gurley provides intriguing merit from 2020 against a subpar Carolina rush defense.

Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 11.1%

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FanDuel NFL Pick: WR CeeDee Lamb ($5,900): Points B, Value B

The Dallas Cowboys aren’t looking so hot on the defensive side of things, along with an unusual inclination to fumble the ball on offense (tied with Raiders for most in NFL at 6 fumbles lost). However, the Dallas offense is scoring an insane amount of points, especially in regards to the fantasy realm, and with a considerable portion of the production thanks to rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Drawing their divisional rivals in the New York Giants for a date in Week 5 makes for a fantastic opportunity to blow the doors off some fantasy heights.

This makes two weeks in a row that we happen to be discussing a wide receiver who’s slated for Darnay Holmes coverage, and it worked out for Cooper Kupp last week for the most part (5/69/1). The New York Giants secondary is allowing 31.1 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Dak Prescott should have the time and room to surgically operate in the passing game behind an advantageous Dallas offensive line. With CeeDee Lamb running 54% of his routes from the right slot, and 33.3% of all routes from the left slot, the Darnay Holmes coverage is a near certainty to which Lamb has a noteworthy vantage point as well.

In terms of his role in the Dallas offense in his rookie season so far, CeeDee Lamb has been involved in 75.1% of offensive snaps along with the second-most target share of all Cowboys potential targets at 15% just behind Amari Cooper. Lamb has averaged 13.7 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game, with a season-high of 22.7 FDFP last week’s loss against Cleveland. Speaking of losses, last week may have been the straw that breaks the McCarthy‘s back, as I fully expect him to come out with guns blazing against the man formerly in his head coaching position now standing on the opposite sideline (Jason Garrett).

CeeDee Lamb’s price tag is absurdly cheap given everything just discussed, including the soft defensive Giants unit attempting to contain him. Also of importance, CeeDee Lamb stands ranked on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL DFS Big Board at number 23, with a 71 rating, and the cheapest wide receiver in that rankings tier. I suspect he’ll pay off his price tag with ease, and even despite the elevated ownership, it’s a factor outweighed by all things considered and CeeDee Lamb defines “good chalk” in Week 5.

Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 18%

FanDuel NFL Pick: TE George Kittle ($7,100): Points A, Value B

The return of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is very much a welcomed return on behalf of the San Francisco 49ers and their receiving corps, with the primary beneficiary to-be in tight end George Kittle. The Niners third-year stud tight end has already broken records in his short time with the 49ers, setting the all-time record for receiving yards by a tight end in a single-season in 2018 with 1,377 receiving yards. And just three of the early games in that 2018 season were inclusive of Jimmy G before his season ended abruptly with an ACL tear. That’s right: this dude (Kittle) broke records under backup quarterback C.J. Beathard (no offense, C.J).

Regardless of Jimmy G’s return (although it’s a big boost), George Kittle is an outright beast irrefutably, so much so that he’s been involved (when officially active) in more snaps by percentage than any offensive player, on any team, outside of quarterbacks and linemen (98.5% 49ers offensive snaps). With that stated, it’s no surprise that Kittle winds up as the most targeted weapon on the 49ers offense by a considerable margin (26.1% TGT), with Jordan Reed being second in that line of season target consumption at 17.7% (which was only due to Kittle being absent those two games).

Despite the presumable ineptitude of the Miami Dolphins defense, on the contrary Miami has actually done a commendable job at defending against tight ends over four weeks in 2020, surrendering just 5 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to the position while allowing only 14 receptions for 151 receiving yards and no touchdowns. However, much like our glimpse behind the curtain at opposing quarterbacks the Bengals have faced prior to Week 5 this season, the numbers may be a bit fluffed by the previous opposing tight ends Miami’s defended: Greg Olsen on the cusp of retirement, Buffalo’s Dawson Knox/Tyler Kroft combo, Tyler Eifert, and Ryan Izzo. So I would recommend taking that defensive accolade with a grain of salt.

If Sunday’s Week 5 highlights happened to feature a Jimmy G “Welcome Back” party orchestrated by Kittle’s dominance over the Dolphins, would you be at all surprised? I know many of us wouldn’t even blink twice, and actually, I’ll be banking on it to the extent of at least matching the field at lofty ownership heights.

Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 26.9%

FanDuel Contrarian Stack: Los Angeles Rams

“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Going back to the well discussed at length here in Week 4 (a la Jared Goff’s write-up), the Los Angeles Rams check all the boxes for a contrarian stack with promise as they square off with the Washington Football Team.

Just as advised by Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool, identifying achievable success in a contrarian stack is ushered to the forefront of attention when a team’s projected quarterback ownership is outweighed by the team’s Top Stack percentage projected by Awesemo himself. This applies to the Rams as well in Week 5, with Jared Goff projected for just 1.5% ownership with a 5.1% chance of the of the Rams being Week 5’s top stack.

Although Washington has only allowed 22.4 FanDuel points to opposing wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods have figurative talent advantages over their presumed defenders in cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jimmy Moreland, while Washington’s evident trouble in defending opposing tight ends could be the rebound recipe for Tyler Higbee. Along with a healthy starting offensive line, Goff should have plenty of opportunity to dissect this Washington secondary, so long as he starts to pickup the pass attempts.

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