We’ve eclipsed the first quarter of the NFL 2020 season, with as many positive COVID-19 tests as touchdowns (give or take). Despite the wild roundabout of rescheduled games and postponements, the season has survived, and thankfully those affected directly have as well. Waking up to a new batch of positive team tests has become nearly a second nature, as have the fantasy-related pivots as biproduct of such, especially when making our FanDuel NFL picks.
Not only has the current NFL season been hit with a number of coronavirus cases, but unfortunately the injuries have been occurring at an even more staggering rate. Which brings us to Week 6, containing several highly anticipated matchups with many questions looming for the sake of rest-of-season potential with some and next season prayers for others. And while 2020 has had more than its share of catastrophic injuries, there’s a silver lining of rekindled form a la renaissance for other castoffs and thought-to-be has-beens. Some of these are featured here as we dig into NFL Week 6 picks in FanDuel Weekly.
Week 6 FanDuel NFL Picks Based On Awesemo’s Grades
FanDuel NFL Pick: QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,600): Points C, Value A
Following his elbow surgery a year ago, some believed Roethlisberger was getting ready to hang up the cleats and call it a career, insinuating he didn’t have the Roethlisberger left in him. And how wrong they all were.
This season Roethlisberger has surprised not just the nay-sayers but the likes of many, already throwing for 10 touchdowns and just one interception with a quarterback rating of 110.4 through four games. While he’s also notched just over 1,000 passing yards, barring any setbacks, he’s still on pace for matching some of his best seasons of his 16-year career a quarter of the way through the season. In fact if he keeps this up, 2020 may just be his best yet, on track for over 4,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns (although maintaining this level of production is a very large ask).
Week 6 marks an AFC North war between bitter rivals in the Steelers and Cleveland Browns, one that last wound up in a helmet-swinging brawl between Myles Garrett and Steelers backup quarterback Mason Rudolph. Yet in this game, while Garrett is back from suspension for the rematch, it’s Roethlisberger returned at quarterback, which is not good news for the Browns if history has anything to do with it. Going 23-2-1 in his resume against Cleveland, Roethlisberger has decimated the Browns much more often than not and his current season’s resurgent stat line is looking like the writing is on the wall.
In regards to the Browns, it’s not simply the history versus Roethlisberger heading into this matchup that are prophetic. Despite finding the means to pressure quarterbacks, registering 12 sacks this season (12th most in NFL) as well as six interceptions (tied third most NFL), the Browns have been getting carved through the air regardless. Surrendering 12 passing touchdowns on 215 attempts (.055 touchdowns per attempt), the Browns currently rank 24th against quarterbacks on FanDuel, allowing 21.7 FanDuel points per game to the position.
When looking specifically at this slate by comparison of other quarterbacks versus their Week 6 opponents, only Kirk Cousins is facing a team giving up more touchdowns per pass attempt in the Atlanta Falcons (.0735 touchdowns per attempt). Allowing 1,428 passing yards and the third-most in the NFL, Cleveland’s defense remains most suspect against the facets where Roethlisberger’s talents excel. With a newfound weapon to the arsenal in rookie wide receiver Chase Claypool, Roethlisberger looks like the retro edition of himself once again, averaging 20.45 FanDuel points per game, and he is a fantastic value against this Browns secondary that’s allowed the third-most touchdowns in the league.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 4.2%
FanDuel NFL Pick: RB David Montgomery ($5,900): Points B, Value A
The Bears have dealt with a season-ending injury to scat-back Tarik Cohen, along with a quarterback changing of the guard from Mitchell Trubisky to veteran journeyman Nick Foles. And yet the question for Bears fans remains — when is the time Montgomery will breakout? Provided a Panthers defensive opponent who’s surrendered the most FanDuel points to running backs this season, perhaps Sunday in Week 6 could be the dawn of his coming-out party.
While the field ownership may be in excess by comparison of his norm, Montgomery is still projected to be the RB7 on FanDuel in regards to ownership ranks. His recent increased workload and involvement on offense give Montgomery a fighting chance to meet or exceed projections, but the added bonus of a soft Carolina rush defense lends to the notion of a solid Sunday ahead for the sophomore running back.
Thus far through the 2020 season, Montgomery has been involved in 64.2% of Chicago’s snaps on offense, but the boost in workload has stemmed ever since Foles took over at quarterback, with Montgomery leaping to an 83.25% snap count since Foles’ inclusion (second-highest just behind wide receiver Allen Robinson). It’s also been since Cohen tore his ACL, with multitool Cordarelle Patterson and second-year running back Ryan Nall not posing much threat to Montgomery’s carries. Since Week 4 after Foles assumed quarterback duties (and Cohen got injured in Week 3), 67% of Chicago’s rushes have come on behalf of Montgomery, while Patterson’s carry share increased a mere 1.5% (to just 20%). Nall is still uninvolved.
Montgomery also has the benefit of the doubt when it comes to run-blocking provided for him, as Chicago’s offensive line looks to have a considerable advantage in run blocking as well as in pass protection over the opposing Carolina base 4-3 front seven. The Panthers rank dead last against opposing running backs on FanDuel, allowing 31.7 FanDuel points per game and 5.12 yards per carry to the position this season. Surrendering eight rushing touchdowns (most in NFL) and 563 total rushing yards (sixth most) on nowhere near the most rushing attempts endured (110 rushing attempts against, 14th NFL), the opportunity for a big game in Week 6 is a very viable one for the second-year Bears rusher.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 16.4%
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FanDuel NFL Pick: WR DeVante Parker ($6,400): Points A, Value B
The Adam Gase Show rages on for the Jets, and their weekly opposition isn’t complaining one bit. In Week 6 that happens to be the AFC East rival Dolphins, where Parker and Ryan Fitzpatrick look to continue paving the Jets’ path to the 2021 top draft pick. Parker is in for a superb matchup with the Jets secondary come Sunday, as the Jets have allowed 30.7 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers, while the inclusive members in line to defend Parker appear at a disadvantage.
Parker splits his time on both sides of the field as well as a 20% margin distributed in the slot, to which he’ll be seeing Pierre Desir in his time along the left. Blessuan Austin defends the right side typically, but he is questionable with a calf injury and backed up by rookie cornerback Lamar Jackson. Parker’s 2-inch height advantage in tandem with 30-pounds his heavier over Desir should be problematic before and after contact for the Jets defender, with a similar upper-hand to Austin and Jackson. When running routes from the slot, Parker will have a six-inch height advantage to safety Brian Poole as well. This adds fuel to the fire, with a likelihood that Parker will feast all day long on whoever draws him to defend.
The workload and involvement in the Dolphins offense for Parker is all the more promising for his fantasy potential in Week 6, as his 74.3% participation in Miami offensive snaps is a team high outside of Fitzpatrick’s quarterbacking. Speaking of Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins quarterback loves him some Parker. He dedicates more attention to Parker than any member of the Dolphins offense, with a 20.6% target share and an even juicier 25.8% share the past two weeks. Against a New York Jets defense allowing 2.22 FanDuel points per reception this season bodes well for the tandem of Fitzpatrick and Parker (153.3 FanDuel points over 69 receptions allowed by Jets), where the Dolphins offense executes pass plays 53.4% of their 2020 snaps.
The ownership is naturally projected to be high, but Parker is slated to be the WR5 by route of ownership rankings, which is nothing outlandish when considering the modest percentage share combined with his No. 12 overall ranking on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL Big Board this week.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 15.3%
FanDuel NFL Pick: TE T.J. Hockenson ($5,700): Points C, Value A
Although there are a few other top options at the tight end position on FanDuel that would’ve qualified for discussion here, there’s a feeling of necessary mention of qualifying members of the Lions offense going up against Jacksonville this week, and Hockenson is among the most worthy given the subpar means of defending tight ends the Jaguars have demonstrated.
Hockenson is averaging 9.87 FanDuel points per game while being involved in 72.8% of Detroit’s snaps on offense, accounting for third highest on the Lions behind Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay and second-most their past two games. The second-year tight end has also been the second-most targeted in their most recent two games at 18%, trailing Golladay’s 24% with Danny Amendola gradually seeing less attention.
Jacksonville’s defense has been nothing shy of porous as an entirety this season, which is an easy indicator as to Matthew Stafford‘s top-chalk ownership on FanDuel. While Golladay and Stafford stand out as fantastic picks against the Jaguars as well, Hockenson has all the reason to exceed value against this Jacksonville defense ranking 26th versus opposing tight ends. They are surrendering 14 FanDuel points per game by means of 352 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns allowed on 22 receptions to the tight end position. A staggering 12.57 yards per target is the worst in the NFL in regards to defending against tight ends and the cherry on top when making the case for Hockenson.
One of the only apparent downsides to Hockenson’s status for Week 6 revolves around his second-most ownership at the position on FanDuel, trailing just behind Jonnu Smith as the chalkiest tight end. However, much like the mutual concern surrounding the previously mentioned Parker, the percentage is nothing so vastly worthy of making a drastic stand of fading him. Hockenson should eat in Week 6 with little on behalf of the Jaguars defense to say otherwise.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 12.5%
FanDuel Contrarian Stack: Green Bay Packers
For whatever reason, Aaron Rodgers is an apparent afterthought in consideration of quarterbacks to be rostered by the field on FanDuel this week, posing a fantastic contrarian opportunity when stacking within your lineup entries. In a showdown with the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers, there aren’t any glaring weaknesses in favor of the Packers offense at any position outside of Davante Adams, who’s in line to be blanketed by cornerback Carlton Davis.
However, the most glaring numbers that do stand out are featured on the Awesemo Top Stacks Tool, which has proven time and again as a key to consistent success for DFS players (for every sport). The massive differential in ownership projected for Rodgers at 5.3% (QB10 per ownership ranks) in contrast to the projected top stack percentage of the Packers at 13.3% is far and away the most vast on the Week 6 FanDuel main slate, and in fact is projected to be the overall top stack of all teams involved this week.
With no member of the Green Bay offense remotely close to being deemed a chalky play outside of Adams (27.7%), in part to Rodgers having a no-name receiving corps, the potential strategy of stacking Rodgers with any portion of Adams, Robert Tonyan and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not just a sneaky play but remains intact with the highest projected ceiling for success by fantasy terms. With a Vegas game total of 55.5 and a Packers team total of 26.5, Green Bay provides an excellent contrarian stack option for Week 6 on FanDuel.
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