The last Sunday in October presents to us Week 7 of the NFL, where team identities are shaping into form as we’re somehow without a COVID-19 postponement heading into the weekend (knock on wood, however Oakland’s offensive line is now in quarantine). With some very exciting matchups for both divisional and NFL DFS, we head into another edition of FanDuel Weekly where we’ll seek to find some of the best NFL DFS picks for FanDuel lineups.
Week 7 FanDuel NFL DFS Picks Based On Awesemo’s Grades
FanDuel NFL Pick: QB Matt Ryan ($7,800): Points B, Value A
Since the firing of ex-head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff just over a week ago, the Atlanta Falcons notched their very first win of the 2020 season behind a 40-point drubbing of the Minnesota Vikings on behalf of an outstanding performance by quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan tallied four passing touchdowns with no turnovers, carving the Vikings for 371 yards through the air while accounting for a 136.6 passer rating. At home in Week 7 against a subpar Detroit Lions secondary paves the way for a potential 2-0 record in the post-Quinn era of Atlanta.
The Detroit Lions secondary are surrendering 24.5 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to opposing quarterbacks (22nd vs. FD QB) and have an utter lack-of-production in regards to pressuring them as well. The Lions have allowed a 61.8% completion rate to quarterbacks (6th-most in NFL), along with 10 passing touchdowns on 105 completions (via 170 pass attempts). Ryan has been sacked 2.2 times per game and a total of 13 times this season, and his biggest adversary to production has been pocket pressure. But that stress may be alleviated in Week 7 against this Lions pass rush, which has achieved the third-fewest sacks in the league thus far with just six sacks on the season over their five games played.
Ryan has thrown for 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions, and has achieved the most passing yards in the league so far this season (1,843 PaYd) outside of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, whose season ended with an ankle injury two weeks ago. With two incredible receivers in Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones (who had an outstanding 8/137/2 bounce-back game last week) possessing a major advantage over their defenders this week in Amani Oruwariye and Jeff Okudah, Ryan could very well match his impressive Week 6 production.
Coming into this matchup on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL Big Board ranked 64th overall with a 56 rating, Matt Ryan is an excellent play at quarterback in both cash games as well as GPPs.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 6.3%
FanDuel NFL DFS Pick: RB Chris Carson ($7,600): Points B, Value A
The NFC West story on the field Sunday will most certainly be deservedly hogged by stud quarterback Russell Wilson and sophomore phenom Kyler Murray. Yet an unsung hero for the Seattle Seahawks offense will be lined up to take on one mediocre-at-best Arizona rush defense, and that’s the Swiss Army talent Chris Carson. While Carson stands in a vastly-cast shadow by that of Wilson’s media presence and on-field pedestal, the success has been as stealthy as his attention garnered and in far more than a two-down plow role.
Facing an Arizona rush defense that’s allowing 22.3 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to opposing running backs (21st in NFL), the multi-faceted element that Carson brings melds well for fantasy purposes, considering where the Cardinals have surrendered a portion of that fantasy point average in the passing game to the running back position. Arizona has managed to concede 6.68 yards-per-target to opposing running backs, while coughing up 627 total rushing yards on 144 carries at 4.35 yards-per-carry, making for a seismic opportunity at large for Mr. Carson.
Actually, Carson has demonstrated that aforementioned talent by means of 6.1 yards-per-target on 21 receptions for 140 receiving yards, along with three touchdowns through the air. Although he doesn’t have a rushing total of 100-or-more yards in any one game this season, Carson’s currently in line as hauling in the sixth-most receptions per game at the running back position. And with a 61-rating while ranking 41st overall on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL Big Board, the added incentive is substantiated that much further.
If the Seahawks get ahead by two or more touchdowns (which is very feasible for their offense), they may rely on Carson that much more to churn out the yards on the ground to tick minutes off the clock. With some ownership not too heavy considering the value in store, Chris Carson makes for a solid play at running back in all formats on FanDuel.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 16.9%
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FanDuel NFL DFS Pick: WR Chase Claypool ($6,400): Points B, Value A
The coming out party has been roaring for the man who couldn’t finagle the nickname “Air Canada” (thanks, Vince Carter), while settling for bestowal of “Mapletron” by the fans. On the field, Chase Claypool has done anything but settle as a Pittsburgh Steeler. The rookie phenom is averaging over one touchdown per game, scoring six touchdowns in five games played in his young NFL career, and lighting up the fantasy scoreboard in the process. The celebration should roll as Claypool draws a Week 7 matchup with a suspect Tennessee secondary allowing 36.9 FanDuel Fantasy Points per game to wide receivers.
Ranking 27th among defenses against FanDuel wide receivers, the Tennessee secondary will be likely attempting to cover Claypool with cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Joseph, where Claypool will have a five-inch height advantage over both. The versatility is a factor in Claypool as well, as he’s also been used in the rushing game where he’s notched two touchdowns also. Averaging 14 yards-per-target and totaling 335 receiving yards in five outings, Claypool has garnered the leading target-share of all Steelers in the past two games played.
The Titans defense has allowed 8.42 yards-per-target (18th in league), seven touchdowns in the passing game and 994 receiving yards alongside them. As his FanDuel NFL Big Board 25th-rank overall would indicate (with a 66-rating), Chase Claypool is in line to feast on Sunday in Tennessee.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 3.1%
FanDuel NFL DFS Pick: TE Hunter Henry ($5,800): Points B, Value A
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense as a whole has been rather dreadful every step of the way this season, most especially against opposing receiving corps where they’ve gotten steamrolled for 1,644 receiving yards and 12 receiving touchdowns. Of that total, 372 receiving yards (22.6%) and five touchdowns (41.6%) belong to opposing tight ends. And that’s where Chargers’ Hunter Henry comes into the equation.
Hunter Henry has a rapport working with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert as he’s become the second-most targeted member of the Chargers since Herbert’s Week 2 presumption over the offense (20.6% LAC target-share, Weeks 2-6). Henry is flipping that into 53.6 receiving yards-per-game (5th TE YPG), while averaging 12.2 yards-per-catch and 5.3 yards after-the-catch. Getting a superb matchup with Jacksonville should only function to improve those totals for Henry.
Jacksonville’s defense only adds further incentive in rostering Henry, as they’ve allowed the second-most yards-per-target to opposing tight ends at 10.63 YPT. Henry’s 35th-overall ranking on Awesemo’s FanDuel NFL Big Board with a 63 rating bolsters confidence in the selection as well, while he also has a significant height advantage over the members of Jacksonville’s secondary which will pose a threat in the end zone (where T.J. Hockenson scored on them last week).
He’s the second-chalkiest member of this edition of FanDuel Weekly, which he’s still under double-digits in Awesemo’s Ownership Projections, making Hunter Henry an intriguing play in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools.
Awesemo’s Projected FanDuel Ownership: 8.9%
FanDuel Contrarian Stack: Carolina Panthers
An NFC South divisional showdown at Mercedes-Benz Superdome is on the Sunday itinerary, and according to the Awesemo Top Stacks Tool we’re in for a potential sleeper stack to come out of this matchup. And surprising to some I’m sure, it’s not New Orleans.
The Carolina Panthers have just a 2.5% projected ownership percentage for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, which provides a solid indicator as to where the field stacking is and where they’re shallow, since most stacks should be consisting of the quarterback as a hinging point. By subscriber rule-of-thumb, you’ll want to identify where the difference in QB ownership staggers heavier in favor of the top stack %. In this instance, Bridgewater’s ownership projection is eclipsed by three times as much with a 7.5% top stack probability for Carolina.
In fact Bridgewater’s 51-ranking sits higher on Awesemo’s FanDuel Big Board with a 58 rating than earlier-discussed Matt Ryan, while stacking him with his two top receivers in Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore make for a rather frugal three-player stack on FanDuel. Salvaging two-thirds of your remaining player salary after rostering the three Panthers allows for $6,700 per player and more than enough to spend-up in a couple of spots.
Against a Saints secondary that’s proven defunct against the passing game, ranking fourth-worst against quarterbacks on FanDuel (23.9 FDFP to opp. QB), at staggeringly low projected field ownership the Carolina Panthers as a contrarian stack is a rather appealing endeavor under-the-radar.
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