From the Slot: Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS DraftKings Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

Wild Card Weekend is a little different this year and offers NFL DFS players a huge opportunity with two three-game slates. The three-gamer on Saturday features Buffalo – Indianapolis to kick things, a game which has the highest over/under of the day at 51 (as of writing). The only big offensive player here to watch for injury purposes is Cole Beasley, who is listed as questionable and only got in one limited practice this week. Isaiah McKenzie — who scored three times in the Bills closer — would benefit DFSers if Beasley sits.

Quarterback news will be big this week too. Washington and the Rams still haven’t declared a starter yet, as both Alex Smith (calf) and Jared Goff (thumb) are questionable. Neither are in super great fantasy spots anyways, but Goff may have a tiny bit of appeal if reports are positive on his throwing ability come Friday. The Sunday games have a little less intrigue about them from a personnel standpoint, although most eyes will be on the Saints, who are likely to start Alvin Kamara against Chicago despite him missing practice this week. Kamara has to stay quarantined through Saturday and will need to pass one more test, but he should be out this week if all that happens given the enormity of the game.

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NFL DFS PICKS Wild Card Weekend

QB: Lamar Jackson Grades: A, Values: A

I have to admit, I wasn’t expecting Jackson to come out as such a clear-cut No. 1 option in the quarterback rankings this week, but that’s exactly what happened. Jackson has a points projection that’s 4.9 points higher than the next quarterback in the Awesemo rankings, and Jackson also has the third-best value score on the slate, which is pretty bullish for a $7,800 priced quarterback. And the matchup likely has a lot to do with it. Tennessee is a great opponent for Jackson, as they ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year and don’t have a pass rush to speak of. Elite quarterbacks have had a field day with them too, as Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson combined for a 76% completion percentage and seven touchdowns against them in the last two games of the year.

Jackson’s now produced 25 or more DraftKings points in three of his last five starts and ended the year with nine passing touchdowns versus just two interceptions in his last four games. We know Jackson will get his on the ground, but he could go off here through the air as well, especially given the re-emergence of Marquise Brown of late. Jackson should vie with Josh Allen for top ownership honors in the six-game slate this week, but if you have to choose between one of them, you should feel good about taking Jackson here given what the projections are telling us.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 33.7%

RB: Ronald Jones Grades: B, Values: B

Jones doesn’t top the list in terms of pure points projection in the Awesemo model this week (it’s Derrick Henry, in case you’re wondering), but he does rank as the fifth-highest back in that area. Jones offers us the best value score of any running back this week, and for me it’s easy to see why. Tampa Bay has a solid implied team total of 26.75 and is also the second-largest favorite of any team on this slate at -8.5 (just behind New Orleans at -10), which puts their lead running back in a great spot for a big fantasy day. Returning from injury last week, Jones took less than 50% of the snap share but still out-carried Leonard Fournette 12-to-4 and again looked like the superior player in pretty much every way.

The matchup here isn’t easy for anyone on the Tampa Bay side, but we saw the Philadelphia offensive line open up some holes in their last game. And Jones is a more capable between-the-tackles runner and tougher to take down when he gets a head full of steam than the Eagles’ Boston Scott. Jones has produced well in games Tampa has won big, producing 20 or more DraftKings points three times this year, all in games Tampa won by 7 or more. He makes for an easy way to get a piece of the Tampa offense.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 36.3%

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WR: Stefon Diggs Grades: A, Values: B

Like Jackson at quarterback, Diggs is quite clearly the WR1 on this slate, so much so that the model has him projected for 3.6 DraftKings points more than the second-rated receiver right now. There’s not much to nitpick about the matchup either. Indianapolis comes in having allowed 300 yards passing in four of their last five games and multiple passing touchdowns in each of their last four starts. Their secondary has clearly dropped off since the start of the year too, as they’ve now allowed multiple touchdowns to wide receivers in each of their last three games.

Diggs may look expensive and will certainly be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate, but he’s a tough fade given the target share he possesses. He has now averaged just under 12 targets in his last four games and is seventh in overall team target share in the league, as he accounted for 24% of his teams targets this year. Even though he’s priced up at $7,700 — the most expensive on the slate — he’s ranked fourth in value score this week on Awesemo too, which suggests that he’s still nowhere near priced high enough. You should feel pretty good about building around Diggs for the first round of the playoffs.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 65%


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TE: Logan Thomas Grades: C, Values: C

Thomas has morphed into the de facto No. 1 receiver for the Football Team down the stretch. He has now seen 41 targets over his last four games of the year and ranked fourth this year in team target share among all tight ends. Thomas accounted for 19.3% of his team targets during the season but also led them in targets in five of their last six regular season games. There’s good reason to think he’ll be utilized a ton in this game too, as downfield passing isn’t going to be high on an immobile Alex Smith’s list (if he plays) against a ferocious defensive line like Tampa’s.

However, the Buccaneers did cede the seventh-most receptions to opposing tight ends this year, and Thomas also led the Football Team in red zone targets this year (by a lot). Tampa allowed nine touchdowns to tight ends this year and has ceded touchdowns to the position now in three of their last four games. Ranked second in the Awesemo model this week in points projection, Thomas’ massive floor could be a difference maker this week considering how volatile the other tight ends on this slate have been with their production. He’s a solid target at a position where the cheaper plays could easily leave you high and dry this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 30.4%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Pittsburgh Passing Game

The Steelers are favored by 6 points against the Browns this week with an implied team total of 26.50. It’s an interesting spot for the Steelers’ pass-heavy offense that attempted 41 passes per game this year, the highest mark in the league. Things get even more interesting when you factor in the Browns defense, as they operated as a bit of a funnel unit in 2020, allowing the eighth-most passing touchdowns and eighth-most DraftKings fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Cleveland gave up three games of 300 yards this year, and all three of those opposing quarterbacks (including Mason Rudolph last week) threw the ball 39 times or more.

Ben Roethlisberger is trending with pretty flat/low ownership this week in both six-game and three-game slates, and we have him projected as just the third-highest-owned quarterback on Sunday. Pairing him here with Diontae Johnson, who averaged 13.5 targets in his last two games with Roethlisberger at quarterback, makes a ton of sense here. The Stacks tool gives Pittsburgh the second-highest projection for Sunday, so throwing in Chase Claypool, who is affordable and always one play away from going off, is a great idea here too. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to opposing receivers this year and could be in a spot to get run over here by the Steelers elite pass catchers.


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