From the Slot: Week 17 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

Welcome to Week 17, or as we like to call, the day no one was really that safe a play. Yes, Week 17 of the NFL DFS season is known for its craziness as teams who are out of contention will often play their starters a full game (despite not having anything to play for) while others may pull them after a few plays. We also usually have a few teams resting players completely, although this year it looks like the Chiefs and to an extent the Steelers are the only teams really buying into that narrative — a big blow to some of the best NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel. KC is sitting most of its starters (Tyreek Hill, Mahomes etc) while Pittsburgh has only committed to resting Ben Roethlisberger — according to them the rest of the starters will be playing.

There are a lot of important games this week, but some of them also have big injury/Covid news attached to them. The Rams/Cardinals game is turning into a war of attrition as both starting QBs are banged up with Jared Goff already ruled out for the clash. The Cardinals look like they will in fact have Kyler Murray under centre for this game which gives them a huge edge as the untested John Wolford is set to start for L.A.—who also won’t have Copper Kupp (Covid). Matt Stafford and Alex Smith are also questionable for this week although neither really have much DFS appeal at this point. Despite all the uncertainty, we do have a couple of games with big DFS potential as the Titans at Texans and Vikings at Lions both have game totals over 54 points. This will be a week where watching the pre-kickoff news will be vital as player movement or potential depth chart updates could be key in figuring out who the right plays are.

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Week 17 NFL DFS Picks

QB: Tom Brady Grades: A, Values: A

Brady is coming off two of his best games of the season, as he has now reeled off six TDs to zero INTs over his last two games. Brady was actually perfect from a passer rating perspective in the Bucs last game versus Detroit and matches up against another weaker secondary here against Atlanta—whom he posted 26.4 DK fantasy points against two weeks ago. While Brady’s price is up in Week 12 to its highest points of the season, his matchup against Atlanta—who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year—and his improving level of play warrant it as an NFL DFS pick. In the Awesemo model he rates out with the best value score of anyone with a salary above 6k this week on DraftKings and also has the fourth-highest projected point total.

Brady is also getting easier to stack as Mike Evans has really come on of late and leads the team in TDs, red zone targets and has also averaged 9.5 targets, overall, now in his last four games. With Tampa wanting to continue this roll they’re on into the playoffs, expect another high output performance from Brady here who should be giddy to post another big stat line given all the grief he’s taken in the media this year.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 3.0%

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RB: Melvin Gordon Grades: B, Values: A

Gordon will again be in line to receive a majority of the touches at RB for the Broncos now that Phillip Lindsay is done for the year. Last week he averaged a respectable 4.9 YPC against the Chargers and gets an even softer matchup for Week 17 against the Raiders. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most rushing TDs to the RB position this year and also sits 25th in YPC allowed. Gordon wasn’t involved in the passing game at all last week, but even if he doesn’t do much there, the chances of him finding the endzone are pretty high here considering that he was the only RB to touch the ball in the red zone last week and leads the team in red zone touches, overall.

There’s a couple of different RBs in this price-point in play this week—Alex Mattison almost made this spot—but Gordon grades out as one of only two RBs under 6k in price on DraftKings to have a points projection (on Awesemo) of over 17.0 for the week. This game has shootout potential and with the Broncos limited at RB, expect Melvin to end a pretty mediocre first year with Denver with a potentially big DFS effort.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.4%

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WR: Justin Jefferson Grades: A, Values: B

Jefferson has been a revelation this year and is quickly making every team who chose a different WR in front of him in the draft look exceedingly stupid. The rookie is averaging 10.25 targets over his last four games and matches up here against a Detroit secondary who was just handed their lunch by 43-year-old Tom Brady and his own crew of elite WRs. The Lions have essentially given up on defense of late, as injuries and a lack of depth/coaching have seen them give up 38.8 points, per game, over the last four weeks. Detroit’s now, incredibly, allowed 8 TDs to opposing WRs over their last three games and have no one on the backend who can matchup with Jefferson in the open field.

The only worry here is that the Vikings get out to a huge lead and then just sit back and run the ball but with nothing to play for and Dalvin Cook already ruled out you have to figure the Vikings will be fine allowing Jefferson to run rampant and perhaps make a late push for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Regardless, the Vikes WR ranks out great in the Awesemo model this week as he’s fourth in projected points, with the highest projection of anyone under 8k in price on DraftKings. He’s a great piece to build around at WR.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.4%

TE: George Kittle Grades: A, Values: A

Kittle returned to action last week and promptly put up 92 yards on just four receptions (five targets). He had a couple of monster gains that were highlighted by his patented after the catch domination of defenders and likely would have had a much bigger day if the 49ers weren’t actively trying to limited his snaps. Ultimately Kittle played on 50% of the snaps last week and while we shouldn’t expect a full workload — given that SF has nothing to play for — in Week 17, a little higher usage also wouldn’t be overly shocking.

The long and the short of it is that Kittle remains a top-3 TE and his price hasn’t risen yet to where it should be for a player of his calibre. Seattle just finished allowing Logan Thomas to go for 13-receptions and 101 yards two weeks ago so Kittle could seemingly go nuts here if the 49ers decide to take the chains off for one week. On Awesemo, there’s no TE that comes close to Kittle in terms of having such a lethal combo of value and projection, as he rates out first this week at TE in both categories. Unless we hear late news on him being severely limited, he’s the clear top play at TE this week.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.9%

Contrarian DFS Stack: Tennessee/Houston Passing game

A lot of DFS players will be hyper-focused on the RBs here as both Derrick Henry and David Johnson are having great ends to 2020. While either RB here could end up breaking the slate, the QBs and WRs in this game also have a ton of appeal and will be going up against weaker secondaries. Houston has now allowed multiple passing TDs in each of its last four games and the seventh-most overall on the season. Their secondary has been allowing a steady stream of points to opposing WRs since they lost Bradley Roby and they’ve now ceded 21 TDs to the WR position this year—the second-most in the league—and seven to the position over their last five games.

This is all a convoluted way of me saying that I really like stacking Ryan Tannehill and AJ Brown in this spot. Tannehill has flashed GPP winning upside all year and has now posted 30 or more points on DraftKings four-times in 2020. The Henry factor should also keep his ownership low. Brown is going up against a terrible secondary and it’s worth noting that he’s torn Houston apart in his short career going for four TDs in three games against them, and he’s also eclipsed 110-yards twice in those three games. On the flip side, Brandin Cooks has shown true WR1 upside of late and goes against a terrible Tennessee secondary here who has allowed the second-most receptions to WRs this year. It’s a great comeback spot as Houston are big underdogs and Cooks should push for 10+ targets. Both times he’s received 10+ targets in 2020 with Houston he’s gone for over 30 DK fantasy points.


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