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From the Slot – NFL Week Eight

Nolan Kelly



NFL DFS Picks: Week 15 Sunday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel

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DK Milly Maker review

Bassinmatt took home a cool million last week with a low-owned, cheap Bears stack coupled with a bunch of chalk.

Trends so far:

  • Eat the chalk at RB. 20% average ownership.
  • Stack two or three players from the same team, or three or four players from the same game.
  • Mix and match some low-owned dart throws into your lineup each week.

Slate strategy

With few bargains available and such a limited, expect ownership to concentrate on the highly priced running backs this week, Alvin Kamara being the lone exception in a perceived tough matchup, still priced up. Though Awesemo has some nice value RBs listed in his rankings, he doesn’t have a single RB with a B grade below $6200 on either site. From a macro sense, you could easily differentiate your lineups in large GPPs by paying down at RB, but this might not be the week to do it. You’re best option might be to fade the three highest owned RBs in our projections, and pivot to the three other highly graded RBs at 1/3 to 1/2 the ownership.

Dollar discount bin

Pick a Jets receiver and roll with them. With Robby Anderson doubtful, Quincy Enunwa and Bilal Powell out and Terrelle Pryor cut, that’s 110+ targets this season up for grabs in New York. They’ll obviously have their hands full with the Bears defence, but that likely means they’ll be playing catch-up all afternoon. Jermaine Kearse gets the best matchup, in a rebound game after getting only two targets last week, burning everyone in the process. But he hasn’t gotten a price discount, so he’s not great value. Other options include Andre Roberts (6 targets last week) and Trent Cannon (6 targets, 79 yards) — though the Bears have allowed a paltry 27 receptions and 198 yards to RBs this season, they got lit up last week by James White and haven’t faced a lot of RB pass heavy offences thus far.

Let’s dive into some of our ownership projections and Awesemo’s grades.

Running Back

Phillip Lindsay: Grade: C/D DraftKings value: C, FanDuel Value: D

Expect Lindsay’s Awesemo grades to get a boost with with Royce Freeman out. Expect an uptick in snaps for Phillip Lindsay, going against a team going up against a Chiefs team that’s giving up the second most points to RBs this season, including 49 receptions for 511 yards and three touchdowns. Game script favours the Broncos having to use Lindsay more than Devante Booker, and ownership is only projected at 15%

Tight End

Travis Kelce: Points Grade: A, DraftKings value: A, FanDuel value: A

With no Ertz or Gronk on the main slate, I’m going to be paying up this week at TE and just popping Travis Kelce into as many of my lineups as possible. He is the only TE with an A value on DK and the only one with an A,B rating on FanDuel. He gets a Broncos defence well-know for hemorrhaging points to the TE position. And though they’ve only given up the 12th most points this season, they’ve also faced a slew of teams without great TE production (Seattle, Baltimore, LA Rams, Arizona, NY Jets). In their first game of the season, Kelce dropped a respectable 7-79-1 on 12 targets.

Lions D/ST: Grade: C, DraftKings value: B, FanDuel value: C

Give me the Lions DST as a pivot off the highly owned Steelers (see below) at just 3.5% ownership. They have the number one ranked adjusted sack rate in the NFL and they’re going up against the 28th ranked pass blocking unit, at home. That’s a recipe for success.

Contrarian stack

How about Baker Mayfield at 3% ownership with his two top pass catchers, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. That three-man stack will likely be less than 1% owned, but the Steelers rank in the bottom five in points allowed to all three of those positions. The Browns will have to throw the ball a lot if they get down early. A big dick energy move: Stack those three with James Connor and the Steelers DST. Njoku and Landry have a combined 58 targets over the last three weeks, the rest of the Browns pass catchers have 53.

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The fades

This is a tough one to get off of. The Steelers DST are going to generate pressure with the 4th highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL, going up against 32nd ranked pass blocker rating, but 34% ownership is just too much at the highest variance position in the NFL. No other defence is projected for more than 7% ownership.

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in using my technical writing skills to articulate and clarify our content in order to help you become a better fantasy sports players player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing [email protected].

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