Week 12 felt like a marathon, as we were dragged all the way into Wednesday with the Steelers and Ravens playing to one of the more error-filled games in recent memory. We are, in fact, on to Week 13 now, though, and are also dealing with our final bye week of the season. The DraftKings main Sunday slate will have 11 games on it and we’ll still have plenty of NFL DFS picks to make, while two, Buffalo-San Francisco and Washington-Pittsburgh will be played on Monday. Dallas-Baltimore will also drag us a little further into next week than normal, as those two teams will meet on Tuesday night to get everyone back on track for the homestretch. Whether or not Lamar Jackson will be available for that Tuesday game will likely be a big talking point throughout the week regardless.
Outside of the COVID-19 issues, one thing Week 12 was light on was injuries. Josh Jacobs and Dalvin Cook both got banged up but look like they’ll have good chances of suiting up. There has been some talk about Cook’s workload, so keep an eye on the news out of Minnesota up to the game. D’Andre Swift and David Johnson could both return this week after missing multiple games as well. The Vikings skill players, who will be taking on the Jaguars this week, should all garner heavier ownership, while several of the Texans receivers are also projecting with heavy ownership due to the Suspension of Will Fuller.
Week 13 NFL DFS Picks: Awesemo Values & Ownership Projections
Contrarian DFS Stack: Browns Passing game
Everybody passes on the Titans these days. Tennessee has allowed the second-most passing attempts against now on a per game basis (39.9) and are coming off a game where they allowed Philip Rivers to go for 295 and two touchdowns, and even woke the carcass of T.Y. Hilton up, who posted 81 yards and a touchdown. It will probably feel like chasing to target Jarvis Landry here, but last week we got a true taste of his upside without Odell Beckham in the lineup, as he saw 11 targets and went off against a weak secondary for 149 yards. He gets nearly the same matchup here and makes for a good low-priced stack with Baker Mayfield.
It’s a good spot for Mayfield to make a little noise here in DFS, and he’s super cheap ($5,300) on DraftKings. That makes him a good GPP pivot off guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick in the same range who are projecting with heavier ownership. Tennessee has created the fourth-fewest sacks per game this year, so if the Browns get behind, he’ll have time to pass. Derrick Henry is the obvious comeback play here, but even though he’s obvious, don’t expect him to be uber chalky. Henry is only projecting as the sixth-highest-owned running backs despite having the second-best points projection on Awesemo. This game has a 54.5 over/under, so names like Austin Hooper and Rashard Higgins could even be considered if you do choose the Mayfield route at quarterback.
QB: Mitchell Trubisky Grades: B, Values: A
Trubisky was announced as the Bears starter for Week 13, and while that may not seem like drastic or relevant information for Daily Fantasy purposes, there are quite a few reasons to like him as a cheap play on the big sites this week. The Bears don’t run the ball well at all, and Chicago quarterbacks have now thrown 40 or more times in four of the last five games. The Lions also have a terrible defense that has given up 7.6 yards per pass attempt, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. The Lions are also sixth to last in sacks per game this year, which is great news for Trubisky, who has traditionally torn the Lions apart over his career.
Trubisky has averaged 277-yards passing with three touchdowns per game against Detroit over his last four meetings with them. A lot of his production from last week came later in the game, but it was still good to see him connect with Allen Robinson for two touchdowns, who has only scored once in his six games prior to the meeting with the Packers with Trubisky under center. The model on Awesemo agrees that Trubisky is a screaming value, as he ranks out with the fifth-best points projection at quarterback but also has the consensus best value score of any player in Week 13. Regardless of what you think of him as a player, Trubisky is back on for Week 13 in DFS, so buckle up.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.5%
RB: Austin Ekeler Grades: B, Values: B
Ekeler was hardly eased into his first game back from a long injury layoff, as he took 25 touches while playing on 71% of the snaps. The workload led to a PPR performance for the ages, as the slippery back led the Chargers in targets with 16 and ended up catching 11 passes for 85 yards. While we can’t expect this kind of insane targeting every game, it is worth noting that this was the second time that Ekeler caught 11 passes with Justin Herbert as his quarterback, and clearly, the rookie doesn’t mind using the veteran as his safety valve when things get too crazy in the pocket.
The big game did bring a price increase, but at $7,000 on DraftKings, his price is still within his range for the year. Plus, he’ll be taking on a slightly overrated Patriots rush defense here who has given up multiple rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in three of their last six games. Ekeler rates out strong in the model too with the fourth-best points projection on the Sunday slate for backs and is slightly cheaper now than James Robinson, who also gets big usage but saw a huge price increase for Week 13. After getting snake-bit in Week 12, there’s a good chance Ekeler will find the end zone this week and pay off again.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 19.2%
WR: Robert Woods Grades: B, Values: B
The Texans’ Brandin Cooks actually projects out with a better points projection and value score on the Awesemo model this week, but he’s also projecting with some insane ownership (over 30%) at the moment. With a projection like that, finding some kind of natural pivot via the Awesemo ownership projections (a very valuable tool for all you non-subscribers) isn’t a horrible idea. Woods definitely sticks out, as the Rams come into Week 13 in desperate need of a win and are taking on a Cardinals team that has given up the sixth-most receptions and eighth-most touchdowns to the wide receiver position this season.
Even with the good matchup, though, Woods is coming off a slow game, so he’s projected out at about half the ownership of Cooks despite having scored over 28 DraftKings points twice in his last four games. The Rams have also been passing the ball more of late, as Jared Goff has let it rip an average of 39.66 times over the last three games. It’s likely another pas heavy game-plan is in the works here against a weak Cardinals secondary. Woods has 17 targets over his last two games and looks like extreme value himself at under $6,000 and a great GPP pivot thanks to the Awesemo ownership projections.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.2%
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TE: Jordan Akins Grades: C, Values: A
Akins certainly isn’t flying under the radar this week, but with Darren Waller playing the Jets and names like Mike Gesicki and Robert Tonyan also getting some heat, Akins is not projecting as uber chalk yet either. Perhaps he should be, though, as Akins’ price — he’s $2,900 on DraftKings — doesn’t yet reflect what could be a huge increase in opportunity for him now that Fuller is out of the lineup. Even with Fuller, Akins had been able to carve out some solid games, going for five receptions and 83 yards two games ago against New England. His two targets against Detroit (for zero catches) were obviously disappointing but one has to think there will be more short-to-medium throws against the Colts, who have a far better pass rush than the Lions.
The main attraction here, though, is the increased target share that we’re betting comes without Fuller in the lineup. With his price so near the min, it’s a fine thing to bet on. The Awesemo model agrees, as he has the best value score at his position by a long shot and also comes in ranked fifth in tight end points projection. The beauty here is that even if he doesn’t find the end zone, a couple more targets for Akins might be all we need from him in this spot given the cheap price. There are multiple ways for him to pay off for you in Week 13, and despite the lack of historical production, he shouldn’t be shied away from.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 14.3%
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