The season begins its wind-down this week, as we only have four official regular Sunday main slates left before the playoffs begin. For some teams, every game from here on out will be important, while many others will just be playing out the string. From a DraftKings NFL DFS picks standpoint, the biggest spot to watch for in Week 14 will be injury news on Christian McCaffrey, who is now doubtful to play after sustaining a thigh injury on Thursday. There are plenty of other names to watch, though, as players like Jamison Crowder (calf), Josh Jacobs (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (foot) are all highly questionable for Sunday.
The McCaffrey news means that Mike Davis is yet again in play here, and given his lack of outburst the last few weeks, he may even go somewhat overlooked in a fine matchup against Denver. If Crowder is out, you could also see Breshad Perriman get a ton of targets against Seattle’s poor secondary, as Denzel Mims has already been ruled out for this week. The slate has five games with totals over 50 points, but the highest over/under is Green Bay – Detroit, which sits at 55 points. Expect Green Bay’s skill players to attract a lot of ownership, with the Chiefs and Chargers players also likely gaining lots of attention this week.
Week 14 NFL DFS Picks & DraftKings Ownership Projections
Contrarian DFS Stack: Vikings/Buccaneers Passing games
As evidenced by the smaller early-week projected ownership levels on Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson, people still view the Buccaneers defense as a stay-away matchup. Over their last two games, though, Tampa has allowed 419 yards, and their league-leading rush defense should once again push Cousins into a higher-volume passing game. Cousins comes in having cracked 300 yards in his last three starts and having averaged 44 pass attempts in his last two. Pairing him with Jefferson has been fruitful this season, and while Jefferson’s price is up to a season-high $7,400, Cousins’ price actually dropped by $200. The duo has combined for at least 56 DraftKings points the last two weeks, and with Jefferson’s ownership projection at just 4.5% for the week, they likely won’t be the overwhelming chalk in big GPPs.
On the flip side, the Vikings defense has been just as terrible in defending against the pass, allowing 19 touchdowns to opposing receivers on the season, the second-highest mark in the league. One or more of Tampa’s three-man receiver crew could go off here, but Chris Godwin — who has averaged 9.5 targets the last two games — gets a dream matchup here with rookie slot corner Jeff Gladney, who has one of the worst grades on PFF this year. Godwin’s ownership projection is over 10%, but with Jefferson’s low, using both with one of the quarterbacks from this game will give you reasonable ownership levels for GPPs.
QB: Aaron Rodgers Grades: A, Values: A
Rodgers isn’t projecting as a super chalky play right now, as we have flat ownership projections at quarterback for the most part for Week 14. The Green Bay quarterback could certainly rise in popularity towards the end of the week, though, as he’s taking on a Lions defense that has allowed points at an alarming rate over the last month. Teams have scored 27 or more points against Detroit in five of their last six games, and opposing quarterbacks have posted a 102.9 average passer rating against them for the season — the sixth-worst mark in the league. Rodgers is also playing at the highest level we’ve seen from him in years, averaging 282 yards per game passing with a 118.5 passer rating, which would both be the second-highest of his career if the season ended today.
For fantasy, Rodgers has been like a metronome for his owners, producing 23 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 12 games on the year and averaging 25.3 points. Against a Lions pass rush that ranks sixth to last in sacks per game, the ceiling here seems limitless if the Packers defense lets through a few points of their own. On Awesemo, Rodgers has the second-highest point projection at quarterback — behind just Patrick Mahomes — but is only the fourth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. He’s in a monster spot, and if the ownership projections don’t move much later in the week, he will be a great NFL DFS pick in all formats for Week 14.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.7%
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.RB: J.D. McKissic Grades: B, Values: A
The Football Team hasn’t ruled out Antonio Gibson for this week’s game against San Francisco just yet, but with him having missed the first two practices of the week, he looks pretty doubtful to play. If he does miss, you should expect Peyton Barber to handle a lot of the early-down work, but we will likely also see McKissic have a monster workload here. McKissic has yet to see 10 carries in a game this year, but he still leads all Washington running backs in snaps played and has played on over 70% of the snaps in three of the last five games for Washington. He can play all those snaps, of course, because he’s essentially a receiver playing running back, and he actually is second on the team in overall targets for 2020.
McKissic has only found the end zone once this season, which has really limited his fantasy upside, but he has still managed to average 10.4 DraftKings points per game and is available for under $5,000. San Francisco has been good at stopping the ground game; they’ve allowed just six rushing touchdowns but have allowed 21 through the air, and three to running backs as receivers. On Awesemo, McKissic has the highest value score of any running back on the slate and the best points projection of any running back under $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s a great piece to build around regardless of format, and we may not even see his ownership get out of hand in a potentially great spot.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 16.3%
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WR: Allen Robinson Grades: B, Values: B
Robinson is again stuck in a late-season limbo on a team that has little hope of making the playoffs given their recent play. Despite the Bears’ downfall, Robinson’s production has remained steady, and he may again be in for a late-season surge, similar to the one we saw from him last year when he caught four touchdowns over his last six games. While the switch at quarterback to Mitchell Trubisky may not be great for the Bears franchise, Robinson has benefited from it, as his targeting has gone slightly up; he’s now averaged 10 targets over his last two games with Trubisky at quarterback.
The matchup here is also a huge plus, with Houston’s secondary being walloped by injuries. And now that Bradley Roby is suspended, the Texans could be seriously lacking for bodies this week. Houston has allowed T.Y. Hilton and Damiere Byrd to go for 100 yards and a touchdown over the last three games, and they have given up the third-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on the year. Robinson’s ceiling certainly seems high, and he has the fifth-highest points projection at his position and the best value score of any receiver salaried above $6,500 on DraftKings on this slate. If his quarterback can just be mediocre, Robinson should eat in Week 14.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 12.8%
TE: Dallas Goedert Grades: C, Values: B
Despite having Zach Ertz back in the mix last week, Goedert continued to act as the main pass-catching tight end for the Eagles, posting five catches for 66 yards on seven targets. The significant number here is the snap count, which saw Goedert play on 84% of the snaps. There’s some trepidation here with the quarterback change to rookie Jalen Hurts, but three of Hurts’ 12 passes last week went to tight ends, so we have at least a little data to build off. Goedert is most definitely the future for Philadelphia, and he comes in having seen 29 targets now over his last four games and has led the team in receptions for the last three.
The matchup is tough against New Orleans, but it is not often that you can get a team-leading receiver for just $4,000 (his DraftKings price). Despite all that, the masses look to be off Goedert here due to the quarterback concern, which could end up making him a great target in GPPs. He ranks out well on Awesemo too, with the highest points projection on the main Sunday slate for any tight end salaried at $4,400 or less on DraftKings. He has the fourth-best value score as well.
Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 6.2%
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