From the Slot: Week 16 NFL DFS DraftKings Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades

It’s hard to believe, but we’ve made it 15 Weeks without any full blown stoppages/cancelations and only have two weeks left in the regular season. That’s definitely sad from a DFS perspective so lets make the most of it this week. The games in Week 16 are cut up between four days, with four games coming prior to Sunday. The main slate has a couple good games to target for fantasy purposes though, with one of the best likely being the Eagles at Cowboys, which has a 49.5 O/U and features late season DFS sensation Jalen Hurts at QB. There will also be players like Tony Pollard and Amari Cooper on the Cowboys who should get some heat this week on DraftKings.

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The game with the highest point total (by far) is Atlanta at Kansas City which has an O/U of 54.5 attached to it at last check. Kansas City can clinch the number one seed with a win and faces a Falcons defense who has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game. Julio Jones’ status will be one to watch here as he supposedly “wants to play” but has barely practiced at all the last two weeks. He’d be a semi-interesting GPP play but may just work to take a few targets away from Calvin Ridley if he does go. Ridley went nuts last week as the prime target for Matt Ryan and could off again this week in a good game script.

 

NFL DFS PICKS Week 16

 

QB: Jalen Hurts Grades: A, Values: A

 

Hurts has now rushed for 169 yards on 29 carries over his first two games and is coming off a massive 40.82 DKFP game where he rushed for a TD and threw for three more. Hurts’ rushing prowess should now be considered up there with the true dual threats in the game and he’ll have a great matchup to continue his roll this week against Dallas. The Cowboys have gotten eaten alive on the ground this year, allowing 5.0 YPC against, the worst mark in the league. The Cowboys have also gotten their lunch eaten by a couple of other mobile QBs this year as both Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson rushed for 70+ yards and a TD against them.

The potential game script alone here means that we should be looking at both QBs involved as both teams currently rank inside the top-10 in pace of play, and the game has the second-highest O/U total on the slate this week. Despite the price increase, Hurts still ranks out great in the Awesemo model with the second-best value score and is behind only Patrick Mahomes this week in terms of points projection at QB (that includes all QBs in Week 16). Back-to-back 40+ point games is probably unrealistic, but Hurts has a real shot at hitting similar upside in Week 16 considering the opponent.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 10.9%


 

RB: Austin Ekeler Grades: A, Values: A

 

Denver comes in having ceded 4.94 YPC against to opposing RBs over their last four games played and have also given up five rushing TDs to the position over that span as well. Ekeler could be in for his first true monster game of the season here as the Chargers RB has seen his usage fly through the roof ever since he returned from injury late in the year. Ekeler has averaged 9-targets per game over the last four Chargers contests and has played over 60% of the snaps as well in each game of that span. While he’s lost a little red zone work to Kallen Ballage of late, that may not matter as much against Denver who has been giving up a lot of big plays to RBs over the last month or so.

Ekeler’s been productive on the ground of late too, averaging 4.96 YPC over the last two games for L.A. and should be in position to take advantage of a Denver defense here who gave up a bunch of plays on the ground late last week to Buffalo and look like they’re ready for the season to end. His $7,600 salary is his highest of the year, but it should also work to keep his ownership palatable here. He ranks out with big strength in the model this week as he ranks out with the best value score and points projection among RBs on the main slate.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 21.3%


 

WR: Denzel Mims Grades: C, Values: A

 

Mims is an interesting proposition at WR this week for people who are looking for sub-4k WR. The rookie ranks out strongly in the value score category on Awesemo as he has the best value score of any player on the main Sunday slate on the site. From a usage perspective, you have to also like what you see from Mims as he’s played on over 80% of the snaps in every game for the Jets since Week 8. The issue here has been getting him the ball consistently, and while he only has a 52% conversion rate on his targets this year, his totals artificially plummeted last week in a tough matchup with the Rams.

The matchup against the Browns should be more palatable as they’ve allowed more than their fair share of big plays this year and come in having allowed four TDs to WRs over their last four games. Cleveland’s pass rush also isn’t as fearsome as L.A.’s was so even an extra shot or two downfield could be the difference here as Mims has the speed and athleticism to break a long TD—something we’ve yet to see him do. There are no guarantees here, but Mims is playing a ton, rates out well and has the second-highest projected point total on Awesemo of any receiver under 4k on DraftKings this week. He’s as good a punt play as you’ll find at WR.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 8.2%

 


 

TE: Dallas Goedert Grades: C, Values: B

 

The TE position is even bleaker than normal for this Sunday as we have several solid value and upper-tier options that are playing on FRI and SAT. Travis Kelce is also pushing over 25% ownership projections and is at his highest price-point of the season so looking for potential “value spoiler” options at TE isn’t a bad idea. Even with Zach Ertz’s return, Dallas Goedert has continued to see lots of playing time, as he’s taken over 85% of the offensive snaps for the Eagles over the last three weeks and averaged 7-targets in that span.

That he bested Ertz in both catches, yards and targets last week is significant as it was the veterans second game back and he still played the second fiddle to Goedert. The matchup vs. Dallas certainly seems ripe for a fast paced game and the Cowboys have ceded 7-TDs to the TE position already this year, making Goedert a prime stacking candidate with the aforementioned Jalen Hurts this week in GPPs to. Goedert ranks out with the third-highest points projection and second-best value score on the Sunday slate so if you’re trending away from the massive chalk here, he should be one of your first pivot options.

Projected NFL DFS ownership: DraftKings: 9.6%


 

Contrarian DFS Stack: Browns/Jets

 

The Browns come into this weeks game with the Jets sporting a nice 29.25 implied team total, which is actually the second-highest on the slate. Despite that, most of their skill players here are set to go quite under-owned (according to the Awesemo ownership projections) and the Browns offense comes in with some swagger as well. Baker Mayfield’s been quite good in his last four games, posting an average passer rating average of 119.35 over that span. The Jets have allowed the second-most passing TDs this year to QBs so taking the QB/WR combo from the Browns here also works as a good leverage play against Nick Chubb, who seems likely to garner at least 10% or ownership given how well he’s played of late.

Jarvis Landry is still at his highest price point of the year for a Sunday slate at $6,900, but he’s averaged 9.75 targets over his last four games and goes up against a Jets defense who has given up the fourth-most receptions to WRs. Rashard Higgins and Donavan Peoples-Jones are also in play here as cheap double-stack options against such a weak secondary. As mentioned above, Denzel Mims sets up as a great, cheap value play at WR, and if you believe the Jets confidence from last week could spill over here and allow them to score some points, Mims is a player who could 5-8X for you in this spot against a Browns secondary who loves to give up big plays.


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