Week five review and Milly Maker winner
We were on the Lions-Packers stack last week, that won Slaytations the Milly Maker. He used an Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams-Valdes-Scantling stack, combined with some chalkier backs to take home the top prize. Unfortunately, LeGarrette Blount ruined what was a viable game stack by syphoning two touchdowns.
GPP Slate strategy
It’s going to be interesting to see how ownership shakes down in this 57.5 total Falcons/Bucs game. For good reason, it’s obviously going to be the most heavily owned stack of the day. I think you can safely attack this game with some lower-owned options, while fading a bit of the chalk (see below).
Of the games over the 50 total, the Rams and Broncos is getting the lowest ownership. That’s partly because the weather is scaring people off and partly because of the Rams injuries at wide receiver. I never quite know how to stack the Rams in game stacks. With three receivers consistently getting a 95% snap rate, the likelihood that all three are going to produce enough to win a GPP is small, so you’re better off mixing and matching or going with a Goff-Gurley stacks and sprinkling in some other options from the slate.
Situations to monitor
Awesemo isn’t high on either of the Vikings RBs this week – likely because of Dalvin Cook’s injury status and the possibility of a time share. But if Cook is out, Latavius Murray gets the 32nd ranked run defence in adjusted fantasy points against, as a 10-point home favorite at only $4700 on DK and $5600 on FD. He had a 75% snap rate last week and is going over-looked.
Same goes for the Jets RB situation. If Isiah Crowell is out, Bilal Powell (DK: C, A; FD: C, B) will be a strong value play.
DeAndre Hopkins: DraftKings, $7700, Grade: A, Value: A; FanDuel, $9000: Grade: A, Value: B
I’m hoping DFSers will be trepidatious enough about a matchup with Tre’Davious White to stay off Hopkins this week, but the hype machine is rolling and at that price point, he’s going to garner some ownership. That shouldn’t dissuade you. With a 99.7% snap count this year (??!!???) and a hobbled Will Fuller, Hopkins is going to get a tonne of targets against the Bills. The Texans are projected for a respectable 25.5 points, good enough for seventh highest on the slate.
Tyler Lockett: DraftKings: $5100, Grade: B, Value: B, FanDuel: $6600, Grade: B, Value: C
The Raiders have allowed more receptions of 40+ yards than any other team in the NFL and rank 28th in receptions of 20+ yards allowed. Lockett ranks 25th in the NFL in air yards and he has enough volume (4-7 targets per game) to give you a solid floor with some high-end GPP upside. With Doug Baldwin looking like a shadow of his former self and Brandon Marshall being phased out of the offence, David Moore is another intriguing option. The preseason standout handled his largest workload of the year with four targets and a 52% snap count. He makes for a low-owned, cost-saving, contrarian game-stack option. We have Lockett projected for under 5% ownership.
Houston DST: DraftKings, $3500, Grade: A, Value: A; FanDuel, $4700, Grade: A, Value: B
Give me J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and the sixth ranked pass-pressure unit, at home against the 32nd ranked pass protection unit in the NFL, starting a rookie quarterback.
On the flip side, Awesemo is a big fan of Kelvin Benjamin at $3400 on DK. He’s getting the targets and he’s probably the number one red zone option. Definitely worth a flier in GPPs.
The aforementioned Lockett, cheap TE Nick Vannett make for the start of a Russell Wilson led Seahawks-Raiders game stack. Bring it back with Amari Cooper (DK:C,C; FD: C,D), Jordy Nelson, and/or Marshawn Lynch. That game has sneaky shootout potential. Outside of Doug Baldwin, everyone is projected at 2-7% ownership.
Most who opt to stack the TB-ATL game are going to go to have uber-cheap Cameron Brate in their lineups, but the smart move is to fade him, especially if O.J. Howard suits up. There’s just too much hype and too much variance for a guy that has only three 80+ receiving yard games in the last two seasons. Consider stacks with Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones II instead. We don’t know how that time share is going to break down, but we do know the Falcons allow a crap tonne of receptions to running backs. Both of them have GPP upside at under 5% ownership.
Another contrarian option is to fade the ATL passing game and hope that Tevin Coleman (DK: B,A; FD: B,B) goes off, steals a TD or two (Julio tackled at the one!!!) and the game script goes Atlanta’s way. He’s projected at just 11% ownership this week.
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