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From the Slot — Week Ten

Nolan Kelly



NFL betting player props tool covers the best player props and bets for DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks

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Last week review

We’re fresh off a strong Week Nine where Awesemo, Chris Spags and I recommended fades of Cortland Sutton and Todd Gurley, as well as a flier on Denver’s sleeper TE Jeff Heuerman. Only eight weeks left in the season (WTF??), so let’s get at it.

Slate strategy

It’s looking like three RBs at the top are going to garner a huge chuck of the ownership this week, but there are a number of value plays down low that allow you to fit in some higher priced WRs if that’s the route you want to take. In the low-mid range, Mike Davis, Dion Lewis, Duke Johnson Jr., Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones are all in good spots.

Stack wise (see below), 85% of the games are projected within seven points of each other on the main slate and nine teams are clumped with team totals between 25 and 30. My guess is, ownership will concentrate on the higher end totals like NO/CIN and KC, leaving value opportunity for other games that will go overlooked and under-owned.

The plays

Running Back

Dion Lewis: DraftKings: Grade: C, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: C, Value: C

Lewis is the clear featured back for the Titans now, evidenced by his 84% offensive snap rate in week nine. There’s always the danger that Derick Henry will vulture those touchdowns, but Lewis’ work in the passing game should give you a decent enough floor to make him viable in both cash and GPPs. New England is 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed to the RB position.

***Update: Dion Lewis is projected for the third-highest ownership on the slate. There’s just too much variance there and touchdown-vulturing downside to roster him in GPPs.***

Aaron Jones: DraftKings: Grade: C, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: C, Value: C

Jones has out-snapped Jamaal Williams 79-52 over the past two weeks, and he gets a plush matchup at home as 10-point favorites against the 29th ranked fantasy run defence in the NFL. The breakout is coming and I’m going to try and get on it a week early. Rostering Jones will depend a lot on ownership though – I’m hoping for less than 5%.

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Wide receiver

Corey Davis: DraftKings: Grade: B, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: B, Value: A

Any chance you have to recommend two Titans in the same column, you have to do it, right? Just wait until my Browns contrarian stack recommendation for the 6th week in a row. The consistently underpriced Corey Davis gets too many targets to ignore in this spot. Outside of the emerging Dion Lewis, he is the focal point of the Titans offence. He ranks in the top-ten in targets this year, and is due for some TD regression. I don’t think I’d go as far as playing Lewis and Davis in the same game, unless it was part of a full-game stack with Josh Gordon and one of the QBs.

Tyler Boyd: DraftKings: Grade: B, Value: B; FanDuel: Grade: A, Value: B

76 targets, 40% of the Bengals air-yards and 50% of their end zone targets are up for grabs with the absence of AJ Green this week, so, in spite of the price bump, there’s no need to overthink this. Boyd immediately becomes the central focus of the Bengals passing attack and he gets a juicy matchup against New Orleans slot corner P.J. Williams, who is near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed per route run. Boyd has seen a recent uptick in slot playing time and slot targets – he’s second in the league in slot targets over the past three weeks. I’m a little shocked that Boyd’s ownership is under 15%. I guess that price tag is high, but the opportunity is huge.

Contrarian stacks

Awesemo likes the Atlanta Falcons this week, with their slate high implied GPA and relatively low ownership. Outside of Julio, no one in that stack will be more than six percent owned. You can bring it back with Duke Johnson JR. (the ol’ pass catching running back against the Falcons) and positive regression candidate/target monster Jarvis Landry, for the full game stack.

Super duper sneaky sleeper

I’m going back to the well again with Elijah McGuire, who out-snapped Isiah Crowell and Trent Cannon combined last week. He’s near the bare min and I’d imagine his floor can’t be much less than 3x his salary. I love a McGuire stack with the Jets DST against the worst offense in football since Stumpy “three fingers” Wallace quarterbacked the Cornell Rams in 1928. The Bills are projected for a slate-low 15 points.

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Good luck!

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in using my technical writing skills to articulate and clarify our content in order to help you become a better fantasy sports players player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing [email protected].

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