For all the high-flying, motion-laden trends that permeate football in this day and age, the game at its heart still hinges heavily on the battles up the middle. Offensive line vs. defensive line play can determine your fantasy football matchups and decide who wins millions of dollars each week, yet very few fantasy sites talk about it. As such, every week of the NFL season, Sam Smith will present fantasy plays to make for that week based on advantage in the trenches. Let’s explore NFL DFS picks for Week 8 on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, from Saquon Barkley to Aaron Rodgers.
Not a member of Awesemo? Sign up HERE to gain access to our rankings, projections, data and tools for as low as $3.95 per week!
Interested in getting the full package, including fantasy point projections, ownership projections, top stacks and Fantasy Cruncher? Sign up HERE. Use promo code FROMTHESLOT for 50% off your first month.
Of course, follow us on Twitter @Stokastic_Com.
Don’t forget to check out today’s Strategy Show with Manny Lora and Chris Randone!
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
It is one of the easiest layups in NFL DFS to play Kansas City opponents. Be it because of opposing quarterback trying to duel Patrick Mahomes or running backs trying to slow the game down, the matchup in the trenches always favors the team playing the Chiefs. Outside of maybe Miami, no defensive line has been less impressive to start the season. By virtually any metric, the Chiefs rank near the bottom in both run defense and pass rush. And on top of that, they may be without the two big names up front, Chris Jones and Frank Clark. They are the only two Chiefs players with more than 20 pressures, so what little pass rush Kansas City has could be out the window this week.
To put a few numbers to how bad the Chiefs line has been in run defense, they rank just a hair behind Miami for most adjusted line yards allowed (5.11 against 5.17). They are also one of only three teams to already surrender 1,000 yards rushing. The other two? Washington, who is 1-7 and has already played their eighth game, and Cincinnati, who is winless. Kansas City is a playoff-caliber team with a high-powered offense, so in theory, opponents should be throwing more against them. Alas, teams are exploiting the weak run defense, even in shootout situations.
Let us turn our attention to Green Bay’s offensive line. They have been excellent, as expected, in protecting Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has the fourth-longest average time in pocket, and the starting line has surrendered only seven sacks and 70 total pressures. And that has come with David Bakhtiari playing significantly worse this year—he already has 18 pressures allowed and six penalties. He had 25 and five last season. Overall, the Packers have been a near-elite pass blocking unit, minus guard Billy Turner, who has surrendered three sacks and 25 pressures.
Their run blocking, however, has been more pedestrian, ranking 15th in adjusted line yards and 16th in second-level yards. Still, against Kansas City’s front in a non-shootout situation, I see Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams both getting plenty. For NFL DFS purposes, they have a lot of upside. And of course, with Rodgers red hot, he is virtually must-roster at this point.
New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals
There may not be a tackle playing better right now than Ryan Ramczyk. He just kept a clean slate in the run and pass game when blocking Khalil Mack, and he is one of only two qualified linemen in the league grading out above 80 for PFF as a run and pass blocker (the other being Eagles guard Brandon Brooks). Along with Mitchell Schwartz and La’el Collins, Ramczyk is the poster child for the increasingly recognized importance of the right tackle. Many great pass rushers swap sides of the field, so having your best blocker on the right side is enormously valuable.
Of course, basically everyone on New Orleans’ line is playing at a high level. And just as importantly, they have been healthy. All five starters have played at least 436 of 466 total offensive snaps.
The team is second in adjusted line yards and the starting five has allowed four sacks and 56 total pressures. Larry Warford and Andrus Peat have had their issues in pass pro. But Ramczyk, Terron Armstead and rookie Erik McCoy have been so good that that they make up for whatever deficiencies appear elsewhere. McCoy continues to be the most pleasant surprise among rookie linemen. While he was a well-regarded second-round pick, most expected him to be a downgrade from retired Max Unger. On the contrary, McCoy has been one of the best centers in football through seven games. His six pressures allowed are tied for the 12th-fewest among 33 qualified centers and his metrics place him among the best run blockers at the position.
Arizona, meanwhile, is pretty middle of the road with their frontline run defense. They rank 18th in adjusted line yard, 15th in stuffed percentage and 22nd in second-level yards. Of 117 qualified interior defenders, Arizona starters rank 81st (Corey Peters) and 102nd (Rodney Gunter) in run stop percentage. Their edge players have had far more success in that area—Cassius Marsh and Terrell Suggs are both in the top 20 at their position. But in the run game, McCoy and company should be able to find a lot of room.
Pass pro will be a bit tougher of a test for the Saints, as Suggs and Chandler Jones are 24th and 10th, respectively in total pressures. However, against the best tackle duo in football, I see plenty of time for Teddy Bridgewater (or maybe Drew Brees). But even better for NFL DFS, I see a lot of value in either Latavius Murray or Alvin Kamara with the advantageous matchup up the middle.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions
On the surface, this does not really look that much like a matchup advantage for the Giants. The starting five has allowed 82 pressures on 463 snaps, only one of them (Kevin Zeitler) has a run blocking grade over 52 and the stout Damon Harrison awaits them in Detroit. All reasonable points. However, individual milquetoast-ness of the line aside, they’re much improved by many metrics, at least compared against recent past. Namely, they rank 11th in adjusted line yards, 16th in pass blocking efficiency and Daniel Jones is seventh in average time in pocket. In other words, while not great, the Giants line is good enough to take advantage of weaker fronts.
And to date, shockingly, Detroit’s line has been exactly that. Granted, Mike Daniels‘ injury has been a big part of that, and there is a longshot chance he plays Sunday. But even so, with Harrison and A’Shawn Robinson in the middle, the Lions rank 29th in adjusted line yards allowed and stuffed percentage. Their hallmark defensively was supposed to be the defensive tackle group, and they have not been the dominant force projected. To his credit, Robinson has been very good in run defense; his 10.2 run stop percentage ranks 13th out of 117 qualified interior defenders. But Harrison is at a paltry 4.5 percent, good for 86th. He has been among the league leaders in run stops the previous six years, for reference.
Detroit’s pass rush has also not gotten much going, despite the addition of Trey Flowers. Flowers has only 16 pressures on the season, and no one on Detroit has more than 17. All this is to say that even though the Giants are a middle-of-the-road offensive line, the matchup with Detroit points strongly in their favor. Though I would stay away from Daniel Jones in NFL DFS due to his cold streak and short-staffed receiver group, I do like the protection be should get. That goes double for Saquon Barkley. He should find his true bounce back this week, both up the middle and as a receiver.
New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns
With all the talk of Cleveland’s disappointing offense, their defensive line is getting a bit of a pass. This group, headlined by Myles Garrett and Sheldon Richardson, was supposed to be one of the best in the business. And while Garrett has gotten his as a pass rusher, the Browns’ run defense, including Garrett, has been surprisingly miserable. Richardson is playing reasonably well with an 8.9 run stop percentage. No one else is better than 5.4 percent. Larry Ogunjobi is second on the team, yet ranks 130th of 200 qualified defensive linemen. As a result, the Browns are surrendering the second-most yards per attempt in football and the third-most yards per game.
And unless something changes with New England’s defense, chances are pretty good the Patriots are going to get a lead and slow-play the game on the ground. The Patriots’ run blocking group is pedestrian—17th by PFF grade, 21st by adjusted line yards. However, they are averaging almost 100 yards and two rushing touchdowns a game, largely thanks to big leads. New England will ride Sony Michel when necessary and mix in whatever other combination of backs they have on that given week. I see New England trying to build the lead early through the air and then grinding with Michel. The Browns run defense is an easy short most NFL DFS weeks, but I especially like it with the Patriots.
