How to win at Showdown Slates: Breaking Down Every Winning DraftKings Lineup from 2019 for Chiefs – Texans

With the biggest NFL DFS showdown slate of the year on tap for Super Bowl 54 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, let’s take a look at every single winning lineup from 47  showdown slate from the 2019 season on DraftKings (largest GPP) and see if we can figure out some takeaways for this game and into next season. Below the analysis, you’ll find a spreadsheet with every game, total, point spread and winning lineup from 2019, which you can use to sort through through, via a link to the spreadsheet.

Most Common Winning Lineup Construction

• 5-1 (CPT, 4 FLEX, 1 OPP): 11 times
• 4-2 (CPT, 3 FLEX, 2 OPP): 13 times
• 3-3: 19 Times
• 2-4: (CPT, 1 FLEX, 3 OPP): 4 times
• 1-5 (CPT, 5 OPP FLEX): 0 times

Conclusion: 5-1 is an underused lineup construction, found in around 25% of winning lineups, yet used by DFSers between 10-15% of the time. As we’ll see below, this winning construction often happens earlier in the season and in games that aren’t expected to blow out, so use it liberally in situations where it might feel like a bad idea.

The 2-4 and 1-5 lineup constructions are probably going overused. I’m sure we can all remember a time we thought we were being smart by stuffing in a bell-cow back at the captain , then bringing it back with multiple opposition pass catchers, but it doesn’t seem to be a winning formula.

Most Common Captains on Winning Teams 

• RB: 16
• WR1: 12
• QB: 10
• DST: 4
• WR2: 2
• K: 1
• WR3: 1
• TE: 1

NFL DFS Tidbits and Takeaways:

• The four DST captains combined for a middling game-total average of 43.5 and those games finished an average of eight points under the projected game total.
• The wide receiver captain lineups had an average game total of 48 points.
• Kickers, most tight ends and depth receivers go over-owned in the captain spot.
• Every captain quarterback was paired with at least one WR or TE.
• Of the 10 captain QBs, six were paired with two WR/TEs, one with three WR/TEs.
• Three CPT QBs were paired with just one pass catcher and two of those were mobile, ‘run-first’ QBs in Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota.
• Of the 15 WR captains, 10 were paired with their QB, meaning you can get away with no correlation. It might even plus e/v to not pair up a WR with a QB, given that most DFSers are fully aware of the importance of correlation.

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Conclusion: As we see in Awesemo’s top showdown plays projections for every slate, cheap, low-upside fliers often go over-owned in GPPs. You’re better off building with a top-priced, highly projected captain option that might be under-owned relative to their odds at taking home top scorer on that slate. I can’t remember a slate this season that didn’t have one of the top three or four projected players going under-owned in the captain spot.

Average Game Totals for Each Lineup Construction

• 5-1: 45.7
• 4-2: 46.2
• 3-3: 46.5
• 2-4: 46.5 points
• 1-5: N/A

Conclusion: Nothing here.

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Similar Game Totals and Lines to Super Bowl 54

We’re looking at a high-totaled (54.5 point), close (Kansas City -1.5) game in Super Bowl 54, so let’s take a look at some comparables from this season.

From the 47-game sample, we have 17 games with a game total projected within a touchdown of this 54.5 total. Of those, seven had a spread of 3.5 points or less. Here are the lineup construction breakdowns:

• 4-2: 3
• 3-3: 3
• 5-1: 1
• 2-4: 0

NFL DFS Tidbits and Takeaways:

• Of the 21 games with a game total higher than 47 points this season, only one didn’t have a QB in the winning lineup. That one? When Patrick Mahomes left mid-game in Week 7 against the Denver Broncos. Six of those 21 used two QBs.
• It’s a small sample size, but it also makes sense: close, high-scoring games have produced a more equal roster construction split.
• In high totaled games, DST appear about 50% less often then those with lower totals (60% to 30%).
• Every single winning lineup over 47.5 total points (excluding Mahomes injury in Week 7) used some sort of QB-WR-TE correlation.

Game Totals – Not as Accurate as You Think

Perhaps the biggest edge we can create in showdown is to dissuade ourselves from the notion that Vegas is always right. They’re not. In fact, it’s surprising how often these game totals and lines are way off the finishing score. Logically, people are going to build their lineups based off the perception of the game total and spread, but if you build your lineups preparing for different types of outcomes, your lineups will be vastly different than the field (if you’d like to take a look yourself at how off some of these lines are, click the link to the Google Sheet below).

Of the 47 games in our sample size, 16 games went under the game total by 10 points or more, the most egregious case: game one of the season between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers that went 33.5 points under the Vegas total. An under-owned Green Bay DST was the key to unlocking the slate and of course, they went under-owned because of the high implied total.

A total of 15 DSTs and seven kickers appeared in winning lineups from those 16 games that went 10 points or more under their totals.

On the flip side, overs were a little more conservative, which makes sense given there are offensive ceilings for most games due to the general nature of a 60-ish minute time constraint. In total, seven games went over their totals by 10 points or more this year. A total of two DSTs and two kickers appeared in winning lineups in games that went over the total by 10 points or more.

NFL DFS Tidbits and Takeaways:

• The four lowest-totaled games of the showdown season went an average of 13 points under the Vegas total.
• The 10 highest-totaled games of the season were off by more than 10 points, eight times.
• 8 of the 10 most inaccurate Vegas game totals occurred in the first half of the season.
• Every game that had a finishing score below 40 points contained a DST in the winning lineup. In those 18 instances, three games had  Vegas total above 50 points heading in, but all three instances took place during the first five weeks of the season.

Conclusion: create more lineups for outlier situations that happen more frequently than we perceive, especially early on in the season when perceptions are based more on the previous year and less is known.

Point Spreads – Not as Accurate as You Think

In our 47-game sample, 23 games were 10 points or more off from the original line. The highest: Baltimore’s 45-6 thrashing of the Rams in Week 12 (the Ravens were favored by three points in Los Angeles).

Conclusion: weird things happen more than we think they do, and often our perception of how good teams are, or how accurate these Vegas lines is incorrect. Use 5-1 builds even in games that aren’t projected to blow out.

NFL DFS Tidbits and Takeaways:

• The 5-1 roster construction appeared in seven of the 10 games where Vegas point spread was incorrect by 18.5 points or more.
• The 5-1 roster construction appeared in just two of the top-30 games that the Vegas point spread was most accurate.
• 16 of the 22 most inaccurate point spreads occurred during the first half of the season.
• It’s obvious, but there’s a strong correlation between inaccurate point spreads and inaccurate game total.

Final Conclusions for Super Bowl 54

• The likeliest scenario for a winning lineup in this close, high totaled game is going to be a 4-2 or 3-3 roster construction with 1-2 QBs, paired with at least one, likely two pass catchers.
• DSTs and kickers are less likely to appear in a winning lineup, compared to an average week.
• Because everyone is assuming a high-totaled game with loads of scoring, building contrarian lineups with DSTs and kickers is likely going to give you an edge, but the odds of them occurring in a winning lineup are lower than usual. Use Awesemo’s Showdown Data if you’re a premium member.

Final Conclusions for Showdown Slates

• Get creative, don’t be afraid of zigging when everyone else is zagging. Build lineups for outlier game scripts or seemingly uncorrelated lineups that have a history of success (WR in captain, no paired QB in the FLEX). The goal is to win, not finished in a 380-way tie for 57th.
• Use unique lineup constructions and builds that seem counter intuitive, especially early in the season.
• 1-5 and 2-4 roster constructions are overused and underrepresented.
• Correlate, correlate, correlate.
• Don’t use scrubs in the captain spot.
• A total of 27 defenses and 16 kickers were used in winning lineups this season. They appear more often in games with lower totals.

To access the full spreadsheet on Google, with game totals, point spreads, and differentials click HERE