Matt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 10 of the NFL season. In it, he goes through every single game on the main slate on Sundays for your season-long fantasy football lineups on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS and your NFL DFS ones on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have 11 games on tap for Week 10, so let’s dive into the action.
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You can check out Matt Every Thursday on the NFL DFS Strategy Show, going over all the fantasy football matchups with Dave Loughran. And don’t forget to tune into the Awesemo YouTube Channel for On The Contrary for Week 10 this Saturday at 1:30 p.m. EST!
Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown for NFL DFS
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Buffalo Bills (26.75) at Arizona Cardinals (28.75)
Buffalo Passing Game
Week 9 was one of Josh Allen’s finest performances as a pro, as he and the rest of the Bills offense torched the Seahawks meager secondary, en route to a 44-point offensive explosion and a 10-point win. Allen completed a masterful 82% of his 38 passes for 415 yards, throwing three touchdowns and tacking on one on the ground, his fourth contest as a top-three fantasy quarterbacks for the week. Allen continues to shine within the structure of the Buffalo offense, now ranking fifth in true completion percentage and seventh in completion percentage on passes of 20 or more yards downfield. Even under duress, he’s continued to have pinpoint accuracy this season, ranking seventh in pressured completion as well.
The vast improvement in accuracy, particularly in these high-leverage situations (throwing deep or under pressure) has overshadowed the fact that Allen continues to rank fourth amongst quarterbacks in carries per game, averaging just over seven per contest. And, as many expected would be the case, Allen continues to be a massive threat as a rusher inside the red zone, ranking fifth in red zone carries per game and third in total rushing touchdowns. His 24.5 fantasy points per game absolutely smash his previous career high. This week he gets the Cardinals, who have fared pretty decently against the pass this season, ranking ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt but slightly below league average in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA.
All in all, the matchup doesn’t appear like one that should have fantasy gamers overly concerned. In fact, the Cardinals allow 1 fantasy point per game more than opposing quarterbacks’ average, which for Allen would be 25-plus fantasy points (before any yardage bonuses). The Awesemo projections are all in on Allen, even as the fourth-highest quarterback salary on the main slate. Be wary, though, Allen projects as the most utilized quarterback on the slate at the time of this writing. In tournaments, daily fantasy football lineups that use this roster will need to differentiate in other ways.
Star wideout Stefon Diggs is one of just five receivers with a true weighted opportunity share north of 30%, making him the unequivocal backbone of the Buffalo passing game. Week 9 was another typical Diggs week, as he earned 12 targets (32% of the team’s total pass attempts) and 131 air yards, top 10 in the NFL. His nine receptions and 118 receiving yards led the team. John Brown, clearly much closer to full strength after missing time earlier in the year with a calf injury, saw a season-high 11 looks as well and led the team with 57 yards after contact in a 18-point performance. Even Gabriel Davis, who continues to have an excellent rookie campaign, racked up 70 yards on just five receptions and found the end zone, making it a trio of Bills with 17-plus fantasy points a week ago.
Even with Brown healthy and squarely back in the fold, Davis continues to see a solid 10% of the team’s targets and 20% of the team’s air yards over the last three weeks, but he’ll still be beaten out in opportunities most weeks by Cole Beasley, who remains third on the target totem pole with a 18% target share since week 7. Though it’s possible that we see increased usage from tight ends Tyler Kroft or Dawson Knox (they combined for one target last week), the Cardinals have had particular difficulty with wide receivers, ranking in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to primary and secondary wide receivers, which means it’s full speed ahead for Diggs and Brown this weekend. The Awesemo projections have all three of Diggs (who has the second-highest salary among receivers on the main slate), Brown (31st) and Beasley (32nd) ranked well ahead of their salary-based expectations.
Buffalo Rushing Game
Over the past two weeks, the Bills have made it remarkably clear that Zack Moss will be featured in key situations within the Buffalo offense, as Moss has now played on 53% and 56% of snaps in that span, compared to Devin Singletary’s 48% and 46%. Unfortunately, it appears this backfield’s beginning to head towards the dreaded 50-50 split for fantasy gamers. No Bills running back since week 6 has seen a 60% snap share, while both Moss and Singletary have had weekly opportunity shares within 11% of each other in that same span. Even their target share has been nearly identical (with Singletary getting the slight edge).
Where they differ, however, is at the goal line, as Moss has dominated Singletary in carries inside the 10-yard line since returning from injury. In fact, well over 50% of Moss’ quality opportunities (targets and goal line rushes) have come via the ground. Meanwhile 85% of Singletary’s quality looks have been via the air. Particularly in tournaments, where fantasy gamers are touchdown hunting to get the best possible score, Moss has much more appeal as the goal line back. But when considering price, Singletary absolutely becomes the better value play. The Awesemo projections see Moss as priced fairly with the 22nd-highest running back salary on the main slate, but Singletary, who still has plenty of touchdown upside despite the lack of goal line looks, is fundamentally mispriced as the 41st running back on the main slate. The projections place Singletary well inside the top 30, making him a fantastic value play against the Cardinals front seven that ranks no better than league average in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards or in yards allowed per play. With so many of his fantasy points coming via the air, don’t be afraid to use Singletary as a contrarian stacking option with Allen either.
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Arizona Passing Game
Not dissimilar to his quarterback counterpart in this contest, Kyler Murray had his most efficient game of the 2020 season in a heartbreaking loss to the Dolphins last weekend. Murray completed 81% of his 26 passes and finished week 9 at nearly 11 yards per attempt. Also like Allen, Murray is coming off of a performance of three touchdown passes and one touchdown run, except Murray has added over 100 yards as a rusher, completing his sixth game this season with 60 or more yards on the ground. Murray’s ability as a rusher is affecting his passing lanes for the positive, as defenses have been forced to decide whether to take away Murray’s weapons in the passing game or Murray’s ability to scramble. They haven’t yet been able to do both. He’s been a top-10 quarterback in fantasy in every game this season.
The Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries throughout their secondary, including Josh Norman and Pro Bowler Tre’Davious White, whose status is in doubt after missing practices midweek. Even without the injuries, the Bills have not been as stout of a pass defense as the public perceives, ranking in the bottom 12 in yards allowed per pass attempt and below league average in points allowed per play. In other words, just because the Bills were able to turn over Russell Wilson multiple times doesn’t mean this is a high-caliber pass defense. It’s certainly not enough to consider fading Murray. The highest salary on the main slate and a projected ownership north of 9% could be enough for some fantasy gamers to fade Murray this week, but the Awesemo projections indicate the salary is fair, as Murray still grades out as the highest-projected quarterback on the main slate and No. 2 in value on the Top Stacks tool.
The same can’t be said for the receivers, however. The Awesemo projections see both DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk as slightly overvalued relative to their salary, though Hopkins still has projection well within the top five receivers on the slate. Still, there’s cause for pause before placing Hopkins in daily fantasy football lineups in week 10. Hopkins’ three targets were by far a season low and a fairly clear indicator that he’s not close to 100%, still hampered by the ankle injury that has plagued him for much of the year. Even with the recent lull in production, Hopkins remains a threat to earn a dozen targets and score 30-plus fantasy points week in and week out. He should be considered the premier stacking option with Murray.
Kirk has now enjoyed a trio of top-15 performances in a row, including five receptions for a season-high 124 yards and a touchdown in Arizona’s week 9 loss to Miami. Especially with Buffalo performing much better against secondary and tertiary receivers in schedule-adjusted fantasy points, Hopkins remains the better option, even at a high salary, with Kirk’s salary now moving within the top 25 receivers. That’s just a little too much budget to allocate for Kirk. He’ll still be a decent tournament option with just a 3% main slate utilization projection in daily fantasy football lineups. Larry Fitzgerald’s four receptions for 54 yards perfectly encapsulate the contribution to expect from him at this point in his career. If he manages a similar stat line and finds the end zone, something he’s yet to do this season, he’d end up being a decent value play due to his reduced salary. That makes Fitzgerald a not-terrible option as the 59th-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate.
Arizona Rushing Game
When Kenyan Drake went down with a foot injury in week 7, it looked like Arizona might be without their workhorse running back for an extended time. Fast forward to week 10, and Drake is back at practice after missing just one game and, as of the time of this article’s writing, appears on track to play against Buffalo in week 10. This would make Drake a no-brainer option, simply based on projected usage versus salary alone (Drake is the 32nd-highest-salary running back on the main slate this weekend). That’s before considering the matchup against Buffalo, who ranks bottom 10 in both yards allowed per carry and schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs this season. Even if Drake has a slightly limited workload, and the Cardinals give slightly more work to Chase Edmonds than is typical, betting on Drake while much of the fantasy community remains skeptical comes with massive upside (look at Dalvin Cook coming off an injury in week 8 as a recent example). Prior to his week 7 injury, Drake had games with 19, 13, 19 and 20 touches and had yardage totals of 79, 35, 62 and 164. The ceiling is there for him if he plays this weekend, and the salary discount would make him one of the best value plays at the running back position.
If it’s determined that Drake needs another week to rehab, it will be the Edmonds show once again for Arizona. Edmonds has 10 receptions and over 233 total yards over his last two games, and (again, if Drake sits) this could be the juiciest matchup of the last three weeks. If Drake returns, Edmonds’ salary is too high. But as the 11th running back on the main slate, Edmonds would make a ton of sense in this matchup if the backfield belongs to him once again.
Prediction: Bills 33, Cardinals 30
Jump to Another Game
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
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