Matt Savoca’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Houston Texans (25) at Cleveland Browns (28.5)

Houston Passing Game

Houston got back in the win column for just the second time this season, but it was nail biter last week against the Jaguars, as Jacksonville made a ferocious comeback, nearly stealing the victory from the Texans. Quarterback Deshaun Watson absolutely did his part last week, enjoying a vintage Watson afternoon, completing 60% of his 32 passes for 281 yards, two scores and no interceptions. He also added a season-high 50 yards on the ground, en route to his fourth straight game inside the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy points. Despite the up-and-down nature of the Houston offense this season, Watson is back into familiar territory in many of the most important advanced metrics for quarterbacks, ranking in the top five in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, clean-pocket completion percentage and in fantasy points per dropback. Despite the underdog status heading into week 10, the Texans have an implied total of nearly 25 and absolutely possess the weapon to challenge the Cleveland defense, who rank just 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 24th in points allowed per play. Watson makes a ton of sense as the fifth-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate, especially in tournaments. The Awesemo projections are bullish on Watson, even with the relatively steep salary.

Brandin Cooks enjoyed his largest target share of the season, seeing three in every 10 passes from Watson a week ago. Cooks was the only receiver on the offense to see more than five looks a week ago and was relatively quiet from a yardage standpoint after scoring a 50-plus-yard touchdown within moments of the Texans beginning their first possession of the afternoon. He ended out-gained by nearly 20 yards by teammate Will Fuller, who averaged 20 yards per catch and caught a touchdown of his own, leading the receiving corps in fantasy points. Still, it’s absolutely worth mentioning that Cooks has overtaking Fuller in weighted opportunity by about 16% since week 5. A silver lining for fantasy gamers who want to stack the Houston passing attack, the big two have clearly pulled away from the pack, making Randall Cobb and the tight ends simply auxiliary, tournament-only pieces. The Awesemo projections don’t mind Fuller at his WR10 salary on the main slate this Sunday, but they’re much more enamored with Cooks, who has a salary of just $5,600 and just a 7% projected ownership. That’s the best value play in this offense, though it should be mentioned, Cleveland has been much more vulnerable to primary receivers and tertiary receivers (a point in Randall Cobb’s favor), but they’ve been amongst the best defenses in the league in stopping secondary wideouts, ranking inside the top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points against that particular position group.


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Houston Rushing Game

David Johnson entered the concussion protocol on just his third opportunity of the Texans’ week 10 victory, ending his day. He’d already racked up 16 yards in what looked, at least on paper, to be a fantastic opportunity for the former Pro Bowler. Instead, he’ll face a tough road to getting cleared this Sunday against the Browns. If he passes the protocol in time (something we’re not sure of as of the writing of this article, midweek) and is able to suit up, we should expect the typical 15-22 opportunities that we’ve seen from Johnson all year, when healthy. Against a Browns team that ranks 18th in yards allowed per drive and bottom five in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards allowed, Johnson will be a decent but risky play at $5,400, 18th among running backs on the main slate. There are more obvious value plays at the position, but it’s also not impossible Johnson bounces back with a vengeance and has the breakout game many have been anticipating, just one week later than expected.

If Johnson’s forced to sit however, it opens the door for yet another afternoon of Duke Johnson, who carried the bulk of the backfield workload for the Texans once the starter went down. His 20 opportunities (that included four targets) were a season high, as were his 73 total yards. Duke would likely see more than the 20 looks he had in week 10 should David be out, making him a no-brainer value option on the main slate. Though it should be noted that DraftKings anticipatorily moved Johnson’s salary to $5,000, just $400 (0.8% of total budget) less than his teammate. Johnson will be one of the best pivot plays off of Mike Davis as a lower-salary, high-usage running back. It could be argued that Johnson, assuming the backfield is his, is in an even more palatable spot than Davis this week, at just a slightly higher salary.

Cleveland Passing Game

With Baker Mayfield officially activated off the COVID-19 reserve list, the Browns get back their franchise quarterback in time for a very winnable matchup against the 2-6 Texans, who nearly blew a lead late to rookie quarterback Luton in his NFL debut. The Browns, who are hampered in the passing game until season’s end due to the loss of Odell Beckham, began their new normal with an atrocious offensive showing in week 8, finishing the day with just three total points and without any receiver catching more than four passes. Part of that can be explained by the extremely poor weather conditions two Sundays ago, but it’s also a reminder that this is a passing offense that has yet to settle into a new identity without their superstar wideout. The Browns passing attack has only passed for 250 yards one time in the first eight weeks of the season. Despite an implied total north of 27 and being favored at home, against a Texans team that ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt, it’s still incredibly tough to trust Mayfield as the 13th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate.

Despite his Pro Bowl status, Jarvis Landry has not performed at nearly the same level as fantasy gamers are used to this season. Landry, who’s seen 32% of team targets and 25% of air yards since week 7, has disappointed in production, averaging just 50 receiving yards and 9.5 fantasy points per game, which simply isn’t a valuable score when considering Landry’s typical salary. The Browns will need much more in week 10 from Landry, Rashard Higgins (leading the team in air yards since week 7) as well as free agent acquisition Austin Hooper (who’s missed the last two games recovering from an appendectomy), in order to jumpstart an offense that’s just three weeks removed from a five-touchdown performance against the Bengals. Still, it’s important for fantasy gamers to remember that this remains a low volume offense (not a single player has recorded more than six catches in a game all season) meaning receivers will require deep passes, efficiency, or touchdowns in order to reach a “have to have it” type of score for daily fantasy football players. The Awesemo projections like Landry but believe the best bet to smash their salary-based expectation is Hooper, who has a salary outside the top 12 tight ends, but a projection that places him within the top five tight ends. He’s one of the best value plays at the position this weekend.

Cleveland Rushing Game

For the first time since week 4, Nick Chubb will suit up as the 1A starter of the Browns’ elite one-two punch at running back. Prior to going down, he’d enjoyed two straight weeks as the total yardage leader of the Browns, reaching 20 opportunities and 110 yards in both games. While the 2020 sample size with Hunt is still rather small, all indications are that Chubb will be used significantly more in neutral and positive game scripts (as this week projects) to be, rather than negative game scripts, where Kareem Hunt will consistently see increased snaps. In fact, in week 1, with the Browns trailing by multiple scores to the Ravens, it was Hunt that led the backfield in opportunities 19 to 11, racking up a team-high 81 yards. Assuming the game goes somewhat as expected, with the Browns keeping pace with Houston, Cleveland should be able to take advantage of a Texans’ defense that ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per carry. Hunt and Chubb have nearly identical salaries of $6,800 and $6,700, respectively, indicating that one running back’s success is (nearly) a given. If you have to pick one, this article’s author leans Chubb, but it’s a true toss-up. Both have massive upside in a plus matchup but risk being phased out by game script and the immense talent of their teammate.

Prediction: Houston 28, Cleveland 21

Jump to Another Game

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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