Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions (-4)
Washington Passing Game
In one of the most surreally difficult moments of the NFL season, Washington quarterback Kyle Allen suffered a gruesome leg injury in week 9 that was not all that dissimilar from his backup Alex Smith’s devastating 2018 injury. And yet, there was Smith, stepping in for his injured teammate and performing more than admirably in his second relief appearance of the season. Smith and Washington ultimately fell short, due to back-to-back drives ending in interceptions late in the fourth, but Smith’s 321 yards passing were the most yards any Washington quarterback has thrown for this season, as were Smith’s 10.2 yards per attempt. The touchdown-to-turnover ratio (1:3) wasn’t pretty, but it was enough to keep Washington close. We can likely expect a similar output against the Lions in week 10, particularly because Detroit ranks just 22nd in yards allowed per attempt and 30th in both points allowed per play and PFF’s team coverage grade. It’s a longshot, and we’re still talking about the Washington offense, but the Detroit secondary is far from a juggernaut, giving Smith just a bit more upside than the public might otherwise expect. The Awesemo projections for Smith rank him slightly ahead of his QB22 salary-based expectation.
Smith, to the delight of Washington fans and fantasy gamers alike, had no problem feeding Terry McLaurin, who recorded his ninth straight game with at least seven targets and has had games of 10, 11,13 and 14 targets already this season. McLaurin more than double the receiving yards than any other Washington skill player this season, as his 87 yards per game average, making this passing game incredibly simple to figure out. Even as the ninth-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate, the Awesemo projections see McLaurin as fundamentally underpriced, as McLaurin has projection that points him just outside the top five wideouts on the main slate. The only other viable option in the receiving game is Logan Thomas, who continues to see decent, consistent volume (at a position where volume is rarely consistent), earning between four and nine targets in each game this season. He’ll need touchdowns to hit his ceiling (what player doesn’t) but fantasy gamers could do much worse than Thomas as the 20th-highest-salary tight end on the main slate.
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Washington Rushing Game
For the third game in a row, running back Antonio Gibson was out-snapped by teammate J.D. McKissic, who played on 83% of Washington’s offensive plays in week 9 and led the team with 17 opportunities, which included an astounding 14 targets. Gibson’s 46% snap share and nine opportunities are absolutely concerns, particularly because Washington scores so infrequently, though the lack of playing time can be partially explained by a crucial first half fumble. But make no mistake, McKissic is the passing down back in this offense. McKissic has now tied or led Gibson in opportunities in two of the last three games and has out-targeted Gibson in all but one week this season. It’s a reasonable assumption that Alex Smith will lean on running backs more than either Dwayne Haskins or Kyle Allen have, and McKissic is quietly averaging 9.2 DraftKings points on just receptions and yardage alone this season, making him an interesting play at $4,900 in this projected negative game script. The Awesemo projection for McKissic puts him inside the top 20 running backs for week 10. Gibson will need to be efficient and likely find the end zone to pay off at his salary of $5,600, 15th among running backs. But against the seventh-worst team in yards allowed per carry, he’s not a bad bet at all, with his extremely reasonable salary. Gibson sneaks into Awesemo’s top-10 running backs in the projections this week.
Detroit Passing Game
Week 9 wasn’t a particularly fun one for Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford. First, he came in contact with a COVID-positive individual, forcing him to isolate away from the team until gameday, and once he was activated, he was roughed up by the Vikings defense, throwing for just 211 yards (five away from his season low) and recording his first multi-interception game of the year. He also left the game before its conclusion, spending a majority of the final quarter in the medical tent getting checked for a concussion, but ultimately clearing the protocol. That puts him on track for a possible bounce-back performance, as he’s just a week removed from throwing for 330-plus yards (and 8.0 yards per attempt) in two straight games. But the Washington defense continues to receive high marks in pass defense, ranking in the top eight teams in yards allowed per attempt, PFF’s team pass rush grade and in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. Still, Washington has had trouble stopping teams from scoring, just league average in points allowed per play, which is likely why the Awesemo projections don’t have any problem with Stafford’s 12th-highest salary among quarterbacks this weekend. The Awesemo projections have Stafford ranked just outside the top 10, with a projected ownership of 3%. In spite of the relatively decent defensive metrics, Stafford remains in play this weekend in a very winnable matchup.
With Kenny Golladay still sidelined and likely to miss at least one more week with a hip injury, it’s troubling news that T.J. Hockenson popped up on the injury report with toe injury midweek. He’s seen 10 and eight targets over the Lions last two games, and his absence might be the death knell in this offense, making them an easy stay-away passing attack. Fantasy gamers should absolutely monitor the game-day inactives, as a Hockenson absence should lead most to full fade on the Lions. Even if Hockenson suits up, his salary is quite prohibitive this week, and the Awesemo projections suggest you look elsewhere, particularly at Danny Amendola, who had a vintage 10-target game in week 9, his first game with more than four looks since week 2. Amendola is the only Lions’ player whom the Awesemo projections have ranked ahead of their salary-based expectations. Mass multi-entry players could also take a look at Marvin Jones and Marvin Hall, who both drew five targets in last week’s loss to Minnesota. If none of these players are getting you particularly excited, you’re not alone, as all of the Detroit receivers seem like thin plays this weekend. The Washington defense ranks second in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this season.
Detroit Rushing Game
The Lions continued their committee approach to the running back position in week 9 with D’Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson all commanding between 10% and 26% of team opportunities. For the fourth week in a row, it was Swift who earned the most looks, with 18 compared to Peterson’s 13, with Johnson lagging behind with only seven looks. Peterson and Swift tied in both targets and receptions, but Swift maintains a firm lead in season long averages, now earning more than two targets per game more than Peterson and hasn’t seen fewer than four targets in any game since week 4. In fact, Swift ranks just outside the top 10 running backs in total quality opportunities (targets and goal line rushes) this season, 80% of those quality looks have come via the air. His 97 yards in week 9 was his best yardage total since week 6. Swift hasn’t found the end zone in two weeks, and Peterson continues to dominate the carries on first and second down, but that doesn’t put a huge damper on his ceiling, as he’s absolutely capable of going for 100-plus yards with five or more receptions in this spot. Despite the Washington defense allowing a league-average 4.2 yards per carry, they’re giving up the third-worst points per drive in the NFL this season, a massive booster to the Lions’ touchdown upside in week 10. The Awesemo projections are all-in on Swift this week, particularly at his reasonable salary, which ranks him just inside the top 25 running backs on the main slate, but that shouldn’t rule out Peterson as a flyer option in daily fantasy football lineups, as he could easily act as a touchdown vulture in this spot, while still commanding a solid workload week to week. His projection on Awesemo.com also outpaces his salary ranking this weekend.
Prediction: Washington 27, Detroit 26
Jump to Another Game
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
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