Matt Savoca’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Cincinnati Bengals (19.75) at Pittsburgh Steelers (27.75)

Cincinnati Passing Game

The Bengals come off of their bye week looking to turn around a season that’s had more hopeful moments, particularly on offense, than their 2-5-1 record would suggest. But Quarterback Joe Burrow had far from the most productive day of his young career in week 8. Thankfully, he didn’t need to be (for once), as the Cincinnati defense stymied the Tennessee offense for the entire afternoon, allowing Burrow to throw for just 249 yards while still getting an easy win. It’s still a little troubling that Burrow recorded his second-fewest yards per attempt since week 2, even in a win. And, worse for Burrow’s outlook this week – Burrow has thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt against divisional opponents twice already this season. Despite their relatively mediocre performance against the Cowboys’ Garrett Gilbert in week 9, the Steelers still possess a top-10 defense in the NFL, ranking seventh in PFF’s team coverage grade and No. 1 in team pass rush grade. In fact, looking at the weighted combination of all of the Bengals’ offensive PFF metrics and comparing them to Pittsburgh’s relative defensive metrics, Cincinnati has the highest net disadvantage in team grades of any offense on the main slate. It’s possible the offensive line is completely overwhelmed by the Steelers pass rush.

Assuming Burrow’s able to get the ball away, we should expect plenty of looks for the big three of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Since week 6, the trio has seen nearly 70% of the Bengals’ weighted opportunity, with Green in the lead in air yards (commanding nearly 38% of the team’s total air yards during that span) and sharing the lead in target share with Boyd, who’s also scored the most fantasy points during that time. Green however, isn’t second in fantasy points over the last three weeks, as he’s been out-produced by Higgins, who’s 274 receiving yards, including 91 yards after the catch, over the last three weeks leads all Bengals’ wideouts. Pittsburgh, despite their excellent defensive play overall, has actually given up a large amount fantasy points to the wide receiver position, ranking in the bottom five of all defenses in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. They’ve particularly struggled with secondary and tertiary receivers, which gives a solid boost to the projections for both Higgins and for Green. The Awesemo projections, however, see Green, who has a salary outside the top 45 wide receivers this weekend, as the only value play in the receiving corps. This articles’ author sees a bit more value in Higgins than the projections imply, and most importantly, none of the three are likely to be popular, as all have a projected ownership under 3%. Because of the nature of the Bengals’ aggressive, pass-oriented offense, all three players make solid tournament options this weekend in daily fantasy football lineups.


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Cincinnati Rushing Game

With Joe Mixon still sidelined by a foot sprain in week 8, Giovani Bernard once again led the way with 19 opportunities for Bengals, his second straight week with 18-plus looks while filling in for his injured teammate. From a yardage perspective Bernard left plenty to be desired, only totaling 78 yards, but saving his day from a fantasy football perspective by catching a touchdown as a part of the Bengals’ surprise 31-20 rout of the AFC South leading Tennessee Titans. Third-stringer Samaje Perine also tacked on 34 yards on 11 touches of his own. As of mid-week, Mixon continues to only get in limited work on the sideline in practices, which isn’t a great indicator for his playing status on Sunday. Assuming Mixon still has some time to go before his foot’s fully healed, it should be a similar backfield breakdown as the past two weeks, with Bernard as the lead back and Perine spelling him, particularly on first and second downs. Unfortunately for fantasy gamers, Bernard’s salary is somewhat inflated, in anticipation of Mixon possibly being out once again, he’s the 20th-highest-salary running back on the main slate. Especially against the Steelers, who rank 11th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, fourth in yards allowed per carry and second in adjusted line yards, it’s easy to treat this entire backfield as a stay-away option this Sunday. Bernard makes some sense in tournaments as a low-owned option that has a high likelihood 15-plus opportunities. If the Steelers come out flat defensively, as they did a week ago, this could end up being a sneakily great play.

Pittsburgh Passing Game

The Steelers certainly made things interesting last week, coming out completely flat offensively in the first half and finding themselves in a surprise deficit until the mid-fourth quarter, when they were finally able to reclaim the lead and ultimately maintain the undefeated record this season. When the dust settled, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ended up having one his finest days as a passer in recent memory, completing 69% of his 42 passes for 306 yards and three touchdowns, good for the seventh best fantasy performance by a quarterback last week, his highest finish of the year. And while he spent some time in the locker room, Roethlisberger remains poised to start in a very winnable matchup against the Bengals, who rank 30th in football outsiders’ pass DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per attempt over the last three weeks. It’s 2020 in a nutshell. In this bizzarro world, Roethlisberger is unable to practice, away from the team and a solid play in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend.

In an extremely exciting development for fantasy gamers, Chase Claypool saw a season-high 14 targets in the Steelers’ week 9 win and now has a team-high 23 targets over the last two weeks. But his 69 yards were exceeded by both of his teammates, as Diontae Johnson gained 77 yards on his 10 targets, and JuJu Smith-Schuster was the most efficient of them all, earning only seven targets, but finishing week nine with over 90 yards receiving, and even tight end Eric Ebron had six targets and beautiful touchdown catch and run. You could argue this team isn’t a big three, but a big four (with Ebron), which aligns with some of the post productive Roethlisberger-helmed teams from the recent past – the Steelers looks to be at its best when it’s operating at a fast pace and focusing much more on the pass than the run. In fact, Pittsburgh went without a running back on 35% of their plays a week ago, mostly in the second half, and that’s exactly when their offense was finally able to turn things around. With the Bengals struggling in the secondary, all three receivers are solid options in daily fantasy football lineups, but when considering salary, Johnson, the 32nd-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate, makes a lot more sense than Smith-Schuster, who’s 17th, simply because Johnson’s seeing more usage and has gained nearly as many yards. But that doesn’t preclude Smith-Schuster (or Ebron, who is fairly priced as the TE7) from succeeding in this spot. The Awesemo projections are most bullish, however, on Claypool, who’s currently ranked inside the top 10 wide receivers, despite having a salary outside the top 20. It’s a great week to bet on another blow-up game from Claypool.

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Pittsburgh Rushing Game

Running back James Conner was a massive disappointment to fantasy gamers in (what appeared to be) a smash spot last week, going up against a Dallas defensive line that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground. Conner ended the day with just 20 total yards on 11 opportunities, his worst output since his injury plagued game in week 1. Even worse, Conner saw just two targets, making it his fifth start (in seven contests) where Conner’s earned three or fewer targets. Conner was out-gained through the air by rookie Anthony McFarland, despite McFarland playing on less than 15% of the Steelers’ snaps. Ultimately, what stopped Conner (and the rest of the running game) from succeeding Sunday, was the Steelers usage of zero-back sets in week 9, choosing to play without any of Conner, McFarland or Benny Snell on over 40% of their offensive plays last Sunday. That’s highly abnormal for any team, let alone the Steelers, and we should assume the running backs will be much more involved in week 10, especially against the Bengals, whose defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per carry this season. In general, home favorite running back against a defensive line that can’t stop anyone is a recipe for success. Don’t overthink it this weekend and start Conner in daily fantasy football lineups, he’s a quality play even at $6,900 this weekend, third highest among running backs on the slate.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Bengals 28

Jump to Another Game

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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