Matt Savoca’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Denver Broncos (22.75) at Las Vegas Raiders (28.5)

Denver Passing Game

The Broncos never had much of a chance to win against the Falcons in week 9, but that didn’t stop Drew Lock from posting his second straight top-10 fantasy performance among quarterbacks, scoring a career-high 30.2 fantasy points. Forced into comeback mode for nearly the entire second half, Lock was given the green light to pass and ended up throwing 48 times, by far a season high. He also added a touchdown as a rusher, and his 47 rushing yards were also a career high. Still, the season-long metrics aren’t particularly kind to Lock, as he still ranks outside the top 25 in true completion percentage, true passer rating and in total QBR. His quarterback expected points added is well outside the top 30, indicating a lot of his production has come in garbage time, as it did a week ago. Still, against a Raiders secondary that ranks 31st in PFF’s team coverage grade and 25th in yards allowed per attempt, fantasy gamers wouldn’t be crazy to go back to the well on Lock, hoping for a third straight blow-up performance. It’s a small sample size (three games), but Lock has been tremendous as a starter in dome games (Las Vegas’ stadium is a dome), throwing for over 300 yards in each of his indoor contests. As the 16th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate, Lock has a ton of upside heading into the weekend, especially with a projected ownership outside the top 20 quarterbacks. He could end up being a fantastic leverage play.

For Lock to hit his ceiling in this spot he’ll absolutely need the help of Jerry Jeudy, who had a career-high 14 targets in the loss against Atlanta. Jeudy displayed masterful route-running skills and finished with a team-high 125 yards receiving in what was undoubtedly Jeudy’s best game as a young pro. He’s practicing on a limited basis as of Thursday, which is great news for his availability Sunday. The Awesemo projections are extremely bullish on Jeudy as the 26th-highest-salary wideout on the main slate. They’re also relatively in on fellow wide receiver Tim Patrick, who has seen target totals of four, seven, eight and nine over his last four games and has a salary just inside the top 35 wideouts. Even K.J. Hamler, who had 10 targets a week ago, could see similar usage in this plus matchup. He’ll be a great discount stacking option to pair with Lock. Tight end Noah Fant, who was banged up in the loss to Atlanta, expects to be back on the field Sunday, but has a salary that puts him within the top three highest tight end salaries on the main slate. It won’t necessarily be easy to fit Fant into daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, but it’s never the worst idea to fit a player who’s second on his team in touchdowns (by just one score) at a position where fantasy gamers are seeking touchdowns more than usage. Fant’s ownership projects to be under 9%.


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Denver Rushing Game

Melvin Gordon may have been on the field for 20% more snaps than any other running back for the Broncos last Sunday, teammate Phillip Lindsay still managed to earn four more looks overall, including two more targets, as the Broncos shifted to a pass-oriented approach to match the offensive firepower of the Falcons. It was the first week this season (that both Lindsay and Gordon played in) where Lindsay came out as the backfield leader in opportunity share, a development that’s certainly worth monitoring as we move into the second half of the Broncos’ season. The matchup against Las Vegas certainly looks like a juicy one for both backs, at least on paper, as the Raiders rank well below average in yards allowed per carry and 31st in points allowed per drive, with Gordon being the slightly preferred option, in a vacuum, due to his higher quality opportunity per game average (targets plus goal line carries), and the salary isn’t bad either, as Gordon slides in at $5,200 on the main slate, 21st among running backs. That’s just about in line with his Awesemo projection, making him a quality mid-tier option with a projected sub-5% ownership. The projections are much more bearish on Lindsay and see him as a tournament-only option, but he’ll be a decent one, regardless of the median projection. At less than 1% ownership, and with a non-zero chance at leading the backfield in touches, fantasy gamers could do much worse for $5,000 on DraftKings this weekend.

Las Vegas Passing Game

For the second week in a row, Derek Carr passed for under 175 yards and the Raiders still came out victorious, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Carr played inefficiently at all. In fact, Carr’s 7.2 yards per attempt was right in line with his season average, and most importantly, he limited his turnovers, throwing no picks for the second straight game, choosing to allow the rushing game to take over a majority of the heavy offensive lifting. Despite the middling production, the Raiders are 5-3 and currently hold this sixth seed in the viciously competitive AFC playoff race. This week, they’ll face a Broncos defense that is dealing with a swath of injuries to their secondary, including top cornerbacks A.J. Bouye (though he’s cleared the concussion protocol as of Wednesday) and Bryce Callahan, whose status is still up in the air as of midweek. The secondary’s been integral to the Broncos (relative) success on defense, as they rank tenth in yards allowed per attempt and third in PFF’s coverage grade. Those metrics only hold meaning if both cornerbacks suit up this weekend.

The Las Vegas receiving game continues to be one of the most straightforward passing attacks for fantasy gamers to predict week-to-week, as Darren Waller continues to dominate the target share (and red zone target share) in this low-volume offense. Waller now has games of seven, nine, 10, 12 and 16 targets over his last six games played, bringing an incredible usage floor to a position that typically is devoid of it. Especially without players like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or (the injured) George Kittle on the main slate, Waller is in a class of his own as the top overall tight end. He’s priced accordingly, as the top salary tight end this weekend. Everyone else below Waller is an incredibly thin play, mainly because they’re at risk for commanding three or fewer targets, meaning they’ll need to find their way into the end zone to be valuable in daily fantasy football lineups. Over the Raiders’ last three games, the runner-up in true weighted opportunity share has been Nelson Agholor, who quietly leads the team in receiving during that span. Denver (with their starting cornerbacks) is particularly difficult for primary wide receivers, as the Broncos rank 10th in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position group, and the projections on Awesemo.com agree, Agholor’s salary of $4,900 seems a little too steep. Comparatively, Denver is only league average against tight ends, yet another boost to Waller’s chances of success. Mass multi-entry players can take a look at Hunter Renfrow or Henry Ruggs, but all other fantasy gamers should probably steer clear of everyone in this passing attack who isn’t named Waller.

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Las Vegas Rushing Game

Despite the Raiders playing with the lead for most of the afternoon against the division rival Chargers in week 9, running back Josh Jacobs recorded his second lowest opportunity total of the season, earning only 15 looks, while backup Devontae Booker saw a season-high eight opportunities, himself. Even more troubling, Jacobs continues to be completely overlooked in the passing game, averaging just 2.3 targets per game over the last four weeks. The Broncos haven’t been atrocious against running backs by any means this season, ranking in the top 15 in yards allowed per carry and schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they’ve slipped just a bit over the last few weeks, but fantasy gamers should still be willing to stomach the usage uncertainty and utilize Jacobs when he could easily see a 30% opportunity share, and his team is favored, at home, with an implied total north of 28. Fundamentally, the fantasy value (and upside) of that kind of workload in a projected high-scoring game environment is obvious and makes Jacobs a fantastic play as the eighth-highest-salary running back on the main slate. Even Booker makes sense as a dart-throw, salary saving option at $4,000, his projection on Awesemo.com slides in well ahead of salary-based expectations as well.

Prediction: Raiders 27, Broncos 24

Jump to Another Game

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Washington Football Team at Detroit Lions

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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