Matt Savoca’s Week 10 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Miami Dolphins (26.25) at Los Angeles Chargers (23.25)

Miami Passing Game

Week 9 was certainly Tua Tagovailoa’s best game as a young pro, as he completed 71% of his 28 passes for an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt, en route to 248 passing yards and two touchdowns in an upset victory over the Arizona Cardinals. It was a welcome set for fantasy gamers and Dolphins fans alike, as Tagovailoa was asked to do much more as a passer in week 9 than in week 8, but Tagovailoa still has had a tremendous amount of help from a defense that has now scored three defensive touchdowns in their last two games. Nonetheless, 20-plus fantasy points and 5-3 heading into week 10 is absolutely nothing to scoff at. While the sample size is small, Tagovailoa’s true passer rating and true completion percentage place him within the top 20 signal callers in the NFL. His 35 yards rushing is also a window into Tagovailoa’s future duel threat ability (though he’s not a rushing quarterback by nature). This Sunday, he’ll face a Chargers defense that has proven fairly difficult for teams to pass on, ranking 11th in yards allowed per attempt, but just 23rd in points allowed per play. PFF ranks the secondary a middling 13th in coverage rating, another positive sign for Tagovailoa. The Awesemo projections are right in-line with his DraftKings salary, as he’s the 14th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate.

The Dolphins unfortunately lost Preston Williams, possibly for the season, with a broken foot, a gut wrenching injury for a player who was leading the receiving corps in fantasy points since week 6 and ranked second (by a nose) in weighted opportunity rating.  It’s also a blow to the ceiling of the Miami offense as a whole, but if there’s a small silver lining, it likely brings a bit of clarity to the distribution of targets for the Dolphins for the second half of the season. Fantasy gamers can expect DeVante Parker, the leader in weighted opportunity over the last three weeks to have more targets funneled his way, along with Jakeem Grant, who saw a significant boost in playing time after the Dolphins traded away Isaiah Ford and tied for his season-high in targets with five a week ago. Mike Gesicki has seen more than four targets in a game just once since week 2, meaning he’s become a typical touchdown-reliant tight end, though he’s still at a top-eight tight end salary. He’s a fairly easy fade this weekend based on salary alone.


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Miami Rushing Game

With Myles Gaskin (knee), Matt Breida (hamstring) and Lynn Bowden (COVID-19 list) all unavailable, Jordan Howard saw a season-high 10 opportunities, all of them rushes and finished the day at just 1.9 yards per carry. Howard bailed out fantasy gamers by falling into the end zone, but overall, it was yet another putrid performance from the one-time NFL rushing champion, who’s still just 26 years old. From an efficiency standpoint, he was out-produced by Salvon Ahmed. Ahmed saw his first seven touches of the season and was impressive in his limited action, averaging nearly 8.5 yards per touch and finishing week 9 as the only Dolphins rusher with positive expected points added.

This week, the backfield will be adding DeAndre Washington, acquired at the deadline from Kansas City, to the fold, which adds to the uncertainty, but assuming Breida sits once again, Ahmed would be in play as a punt option in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend. Particularly against a Chargers defensive unit that ranks well below league average in adjusted line yards allowed and 28th in yards allowed per carry, it’s not at all out of the question that one of Howard, Washington, or Ahmed find their way to 15-plus fantasy points. The Awesemo projections would likely lean toward Howard in that scenario. If Breida returns, however, he’d likely be the best option for fantasy gamers this weekend. He’d be an excellent pivot from Mike Davis (they have the same salary) with significantly less projected ownership.

Los Angeles Chargers Passing Game

The Chargers somehow have a point differential in the single digits, and yet, they have four more losses than wins, in what is quickly becoming a lost season in Los Angeles. And, while it’s true that major injuries to key players (Derwin James, Austin Ekeler) early on in the year derailed the original lofty goals of the Chargers, the team’s been gifted a quarterback of the future, who consistently gives his team a chance to win, but still cannot seem to find a way to win close games. Even in the waning moments of the week 9 loss to Las Vegas, coach Anthony Lynn and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen showed exactly zero creativity, calling back-to-back goal line fades, which both fell incomplete and resulted in a (hopefully) minor injury to receiver Mike Williams.

Herbert, in what’s become almost run of the mill at this point, threw for over 300 yards and over 7.5 yards per attempt, adding two touchdowns and throwing no interceptions. He now ranks top 10 in most of the vital advanced metrics for quarterbacks, including true passer rating and true completion percentage. He also has been tremendous under pressure, rare for a young quarterback, ranking fourth in the league in pressured completion percentage. Even more exciting, he’s consistently setting his receivers up for big plays after the catch when he’s not throwing deep, as Herbert now ranks sixth in receiver yards after the catch per target. In short, this is a franchise quarterback operating in a milquetoast offense, trying his level best to make the most of it. The Dolphins have been strong against the pass over the last few weeks, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt and first in yards allowed per play since week 7. Yet the projections on Awesemo.com aren’t scared off by it one bit. Even as the sixth-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate, the projections are right in line with his salary-based expectations.

The receiving game in Los Angeles is awfully simple to suss out these days, as Keenan Allen continues to command a top-10 true weighted opportunity share and has dominated the fantasy scoring for Chargers’ skill position players over their last three games. He’s also leading the team in air yards, receiver air conversion ratio and yards after the catch. He’s fundamentally mispriced as the sixth-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate. The Awesemo projections place him inside the top three at the position this weekend. Williams’ salary is a little steep at $5,400, but it’s not prohibitive whatsoever, and the Dolphins have been particularly vulnerable to secondary wide receivers, ranking 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position group. Interestingly enough, the best value play this weekend, according to the projections, is surprisingly Hunter Henry, who’s been relatively quiet over the last four weeks, production wise, but has seen target totals of four, seven, seven and eight during that span. He’s a solid mid-tier tight end option at just $4,100 on the main slate.

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Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Game

The Chargers backfield continues to be one the most difficult backfields to predict week-to-week, and week 9 was no different. Running back Justin Jackson injured his knee on the first offensive drive of the game, and though he was technically cleared to return, he never did, paving the way for newly signed backup Kalen Ballage, already on his third team this season, to inexplicably command 18 opportunities. And Ballage wasn’t half bad on his touches, totaling 84 yards (second most on the team) and finding the end zone for one of the most surprising 15-point fantasy games from a running back in recent memory. Fantasy gamers would be forgiven if they didn’t even know he was a member of the Chargers last week, but this week, Ballage should absolutely be on everyone’s radar, as coach Anthony Lynn has already indicated that Jackson seems likely to miss time with the same knee injury that knocked him out last week. No word at all, still, on the status of Ekeler. We’re obviously a few weeks away from his return.

And don’t just assume that Joshua Kelley will continue to see his 8-12 opportunities per game, either, as Troymaine Pope, who had seven targets in week 8, but missed week 9 while in the concussion protocol, should once again be available for the Chargers in week 10. As it seems every week with the Chargers’ backfield, there’s a ton of murkiness heading into this week about how much work each back will see, regardless of game script. The only window fantasy gamers have towards the likely distribution of touches for week 10 would be the Chargers’ week 8 contest, when Jackson received 22 looks, compared to 17 for Pope and eight for Kelley. Kelley is a touchdown-dependent player at this point, and it’s highly unlikely we will see him vastly exceed his 40th-highest running back salary. That means the best bets are on Pope, the likely receiving back, and Ballage, who has a high probability of leading the backfield in touches overall. While there’s a chance that choosing not to play any Chargers’ running back could prove costly, as the Dolphins have been one of the easiest teams to attack on the ground all year, ranking 29th in yards allowed per carry, it would also be fair to rate this backfield as stay-away, with so many new pieces and moving parts. It’s safe to say that all of the Los Angeles backs are tournament-only options this weekend.

Prediction: Chargers 30, Dolphins 21

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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