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Matt Savoca’s Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

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Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football NFL DFS Matchups

Matt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 11 of the NFL season. In it, he goes through every single game on the main slate on Sundays for your season-long fantasy football lineups on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS and your NFL DFS ones on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have 11 games on tap for Week 11, so let’s dive into the action.

You can check out Matt Every Thursday on the NFL DFS Strategy Show, going over all the fantasy football matchups with Dave Loughran. And don’t forget to tune into the Awesemo YouTube Channel for On The Contrary for Week 11 this Saturday at 1:30 p.m. EST!


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Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown for NFL DFS

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings


Updates:

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

  • Eagles coach Doug Pederson hinted tight end Zach Ertz might need more time before returning to the field, indicating it may be another great week to play Dallas Goedert, and possibly Richard Rodgers, in tournaments

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

  • Kenny Golladay was downgraded from “Limited” on Wednesday to “Did not Practice” on Thursday as he recovers from his week 8 hip injury. It’s likely one more week of rehab for Golladay, don’t expect him out there this Sunday.
  • D’Andre Swift is out for Sunday’s game with a head injury. Expect plenty of Adrian Peterson, with Kerryon Johnson likely mixing in for 30-40% of the backfield touches, particularly in the receiving game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

  • Taysom Hill appears to be getting the start at quarterback over Jameis Winston. With Hill under-center, the Saints will almost certainly be a more rush-oriented team. This slightly diminishes Alvin Kamara’s expected receiving workload, as well.
  • Alvin Kamara is dealing with a foot injury that bothered him earlier in the year. He’s still expected to play this Sunday.

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (51) Green Bay Packers (24) at Indianapolis Colts (27)

Green Bay Passing Game

It was touch-and-go for a moment in week 10, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense eventually found enough offense to put away an upstart Jaguars team who overperformed compared to public expectation in Lambeau a week ago. Despite only scoring 24 points in week 10, Rodgers still managed to throw for 9.6 yards per attempt, his seventh game (in nine this year) averaging over 8 yards per pass. It was also his eighth multi-touchdown game and his fifth finish inside the top 10 quarterbacks this season. With only one major hiccup (the week 6 loss to Tampa Bay), Rodgers is in the midst of yet another MVP caliber season in his storied career, as the Packers already control their own destiny in the NFC playoff race.

In week 11, however, the Packers will face arguably the toughest defense they have to date, as the Colts rank in the top five in both expected points subtracted per play and in expected points allowed per drive. They’re top 10 in yards allowed per attempt and in points allowed per play. And they’re third toughest in the entire NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This is enough to give fantasy gamers considerable pause before utilizing Rodgers, who’s $7,000 salary is second highest among quarterbacks. There’s some appeal in Rodgers as a tournament option, as he’s always a threat for 300-plus passing yards and multiple touchdown passes, and his ownership projection currently ranks outside the top 12 most utilized quarterbacks on the main slate, but compared to salary-based expectations, Rodgers projection on Awesemo.com doesn’t look good at all.

And worse, Davante Adams is dealing with an ankle injury that, at least of the time of this article’s writing, isn’t supposed to keep him out of Sunday’s matchup with Colts but will likely inhibit his practice time, and it’s possible we will see a less-than-100% version of the NFL leader in targets per game, and the timing’s particularly poor, as the Colts allow nearly 4 fantasy points per game below opponents’ season long averages to primary wide receivers. Matt Lafleur also indicated that, despite being activated from injured reserve this week, it’s no lock that Allen Lazard (abdomen) plays this weekend. In a worst-case scenario, three wide receiver sets could include Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who, granted, had one his best performances as a pro in week 10), Equanimeous St. Brown and Malik Taylor, the latter two only combining for 11 total opportunities over the last eight weeks. Adams, of course, changes the entire complexion of the offense by simply being on the field and is the undisputed top wideout on the slate should he suit up, but if he doesn’t the receiving options for Rodgers become almost completely stay-away options. Robert Tonyan, with the 19th-highest salary among tight ends on the main slate, makes a bit of sense, simply because of the lower salary, but he’s one of many in the low-volume/low-salary tight end abyss. As inexpensive access to the Packers offense, he’s interesting and possesses and decently high ceiling at his salary, but he’s still only seen more than five targets twice in his career.


Editor’s Note:

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Green Bay Rushing Game

With wind factoring into the passing game in week 10, the Packers directed 33 (59% of their total) plays toward the running back position last Sunday, but only 19 of those looks went to running back Aaron Jones, which Jones turned into a modest-yet-underwhelming 95 total yards and zero scores, much to the chagrin of the gobs of fantasy gamers who were hoping for a much stronger output from Jones versus the middling Jaguars rush defense. Jones has now failed to crack 100 total yards in a game since week 4 and hasn’t received more than 20 looks in a game since week 2. It’s abundantly clear that the Packers’ plan is to cap Jones at roughly 20 opportunities and give the rest of the looks for Jamaal Williams, who has opportunity totals of five, nine, 11, 12 and 16 over his last five games playing alongside Jones. It all adds up to Jones being a fairly thin play as the fifth-highest running back on the main slate, due to Green Bay’s commitment to a backfield timeshare. Indianapolis has also been quite strong defending running backs over the last five weeks as well, ranking eight in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and seventh in adjusted line yards allowed, adding more fuel to the “fade Jones” fire. Jones will be a contrarian option in tournaments more than a lock-it-in back for this weekend, but with Aaron Rodgers continuing to play incredibly efficient football, Jones will consistently have chances for games with 100-plus yards and multiple scores. Week 11 is no different in that regard. Williams is a mass multi-entry play only at $5,700.

Indianapolis Passing Game

It wasn’t fancy, but Philip Rivers was more than adequate in last Thursday’s win against the Titans, throwing for a relatively efficient 7.9 yards per attempt on 39 passes, good for just over 300 yards and added a touchdown as well, en route to his third top-15 fantasy performance in the last four weeks. Though Rivers still ranks outside the top 20 in key metrics such as true passer rating, total QBR and clean pocket completion percentage, he’s made up for relatively inefficient play on a per-play basis by ranking sixth in pressured completion percentage and 12th in deep ball completion percentage. And he continues to set his receivers up for success after the catch, as the Colts rank seventh in team yards after the catch per target. This week he gets a Packers defense that has struggled against the pass, ranking bottom 12 in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt and in points allowed per play. More importantly, Rivers has a modest salary, just 15th among quarterbacks on the main slate, and based on implied team totals, will likely be asked to keep pace with a Packers offense that comes into the game with three Vegas-implied touchdown drives. The Awesemo projections thinks the game environment and Rivers’ recent solid play are enough to make him a value at the position this week.

It looks like Michael Pittman is quickly becoming Rivers’ favorite receiver for the second half of the season. After returning as a part-time player in week 8 and earning just a single target, Pittman now leads the team in targets over the last two weeks with 15 and has made the most of the bump in opportunities, earning 157 total yards (10.5 yards per target) in that span, easily leading the team. With no other Colts receiver or tight end seeing even five targets a week ago (and only Marcus Johnson, relegated to backup duties with the return of T.Y. Hilton, had seen more than six targets in a game over the last two weeks), Pittman’s salary, 38th highest among wideouts, does not yet match his new role, making him a clear value play in this matchup. The Awesemo projections place Pittman inside the top 25 wideouts for the first time this season. Zach Pascal, who’s seen at least five looks four of the last five weeks, makes an amount of sense in tournaments for daily fantasy football gamers, but the only other players in the receiving game the projections like compared to their salary are tight end Trey Burton, though his opportunities have dwindled after peaking four weeks ago, and Hilton. In the latter’s case, the projections seem to be holding on to a hope and prayer Hilton can somehow turn the season around and revert closer to his past efficiency after yet another hollow five-target, 40-yard game in week 10. This article’s author won’t be holding their breath.

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Indianapolis Rushing Game

The Colts committed to their hot-hand approach at the running back position, allowing Nyheim Hines to operate as a workhorse back for the first time, after a string of excellent early runs. Hines was on the field for a 56% of the team’s snaps and earned 18 total opportunities, equal to the number of combined looks for Jonathan Taylor and Jordan Wilkins. Taylor, hyped as much as any non-first-round running back in recent memories this preseason, continues to fall out of favor with the coaching staff, recording his second straight game with fewer than 10 opportunities and his fifth game over the last eight weeks where he’s had two or fewer targets. He’s been significantly less efficient, on a per-touch basis than Wilkins, whose stock has also risen in recent weeks, after opportunity totals of nine, 12 and 22 over the last three weeks. Interestingly enough, DraftKings’ salary seems skeptical that Hines has actually overtaken his teammates, as he’s just $5,200 on the main slate, a $600 (12%) discount from Taylor, despite Taylor’s diminished snaps and workload. This looks like a future price reversal that fantasy gamers can take advantage of in their daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, especially because the Packers rank third-worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last five weeks. Even Jordan Wilkins, at a running back minimum salary of $4,000 carries significant upside in this matchup and makes a ton of sense as a low-cost contrarian play, allowing significant optionality for fantasy gamers in their other lineup spots. Taylor, on paper, is the easiest to fade of the bunch, but with a solid matchup and Rivers playing more efficiently of late, it’s not out of the question that Colts lean on their day 2 pick in a way we haven’t seen for several weeks. Hines remains the safest play of the Colts’ three-headed monster.

Prediction: Packers 27, Colts 21

Jump to Another Matchup

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

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A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing support@awesemo.com.

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