Matt Savoca’s Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (45) Miami Dolphins (23.5) at Denver Broncos (21.5)

Miami Passing Game

It wasn’t the most efficient game we’ve ever seen from a rookie quarterback, but once again, Tua Tagovailoa did more than enough in week 10 to put his team in a position to win and has now led the Dolphins to the three straight wins and a firm grip on a playoff spot as the season heads towards the home stretch. Tagovailoa once again was asked to throw very little, only attempting 25 passes (his third straight game with under 30 attempts) and completing 60% of them, good for a mere 169 yards. He did manage to throw two touchdowns, saving his day for fantasy gamers, but the advanced metrics indicate that Tagovailoa is still finding his footing as a passer. He ranks outside the top 25 in clean pocket completion percentage, and his 7.6 yards per attempt is below league average as well, but, in part due to the excellent play from the Dolphins defense over the past three weeks, the relatively mediocre efficiency has been just enough to secure a win for three straight weeks. There’s no guarantee that will continue this week, however, as Tagovailoa faces arguably the best defense he’s seen yet in the Broncos, who rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per pass attempt and in PFF’s overall defensive grade. Tagovailoa will need to play much more like his week 9 self, when he passed for nearly 9 yards per attempt on 28 passes in order to live up to his $5,800 salary, 13th highest on the main slate.

In their first game without wide receiver Preston Williams (IR), who had been commanding 21% of the team’s targets since Tagovailoa took over, Jakeem Grant took over as the secondary receiving, playing on 75% of snaps and leading all Dolphins receivers and tight ends in receiving – with just 43 yards. With Dolphins being such a low-volume team, the receivers will need to score touchdowns in order to be fantasy viable. Luckily for fantasy gamers, that’s exactly what occurred for Grant in week 10, but that’s extremely difficult to rely on week to week. The fact that 43 yards were able to lead all non running backs on a team is a clear signal that the outside passing game is no longer a focus of this offense, at least in the early weeks of Tagovailoa’s career. DeVante Parker still ranks first among wideouts in snap share but hasn’t topped 64 yards since Tagovailoa took over and still has a salary within the top 20 wide receivers. With the Broncos ranking fifth best in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to primary wideouts over the past five weeks, Parker seems like a very thin play this weekend. And the same can be said for Mike Gesicki, as the Broncos have been equally impressive in the same metric (and during the same span) versus tight ends. The matchup metrics and the Awesemo projections indicate that Grant, with a salary of just $3,500, is by far the best play in the receiving corps.


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Miami Rushing Game

In the second game without starter Myles Gaskin, the Dolphins (rather surprisingly) gave the keys to Salvon Ahmed, who made his debut a week ago, and he earned seven opportunities. Then he more than tripled that number with 22 looks against the Chargers a week ago. More importantly, Ahmed looked the part in the Dolphins’ week 10 win, totaling 90 yards on the ground and adding his first NFL score. No other running back had more than three opportunities or 27 total yards. The Dolphins then promptly released veteran Jordan Howard, indicating that, at least until Gaskin returns (Gaskin’s not eligible to come off of injured reserve until next week), Ahmed is very likely the main man in the Dolphins backfield. DeAndre Washington saw his first work as a member of the Dolphins after being traded from the Chiefs at the trade deadline but was a non-factor finishing with two opportunities for 2 yards. The Broncos have been susceptible to running backs all season, ranking 27th in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs heading into week 10. At $4,800, Ahmed is simply one of the clearest value options on the main slate. With the possibility for 20-plus touches once again and needing just over 14 points to be a strong salary-adjusted play, Ahmed makes sense in all daily fantasy football formats this weekend. He’ll come with a high ownership, but that shouldn’t deter fantasy gamers whatsoever, particularly in head-to-heads and double-ups. Ahmed’s arguably the premier salary-saver option at any position this weekend.

Denver Passing Game

Quarterback Drew Lock got banged up in the Broncos’ week 10 loss to the Raiders and managed to throw for 250-plus yards for the fourth time in five games, but that’s pretty much where the positivity ends for Lock, as he threw for a mere 5.5 yards per attempt (his worst mark in any full game he’s played all year) and threw four costly interceptions, en route to a highly mediocre 20th overall finish at the quarterback position in week 10. Worse, Lock is dealing with rib and core muscle injuries that are limiting (but not fully inhibiting) his ability to practice in the leadup to week 11. Assuming he even plays against the Dolphins this weekend, Lock must improve on his deep ball accuracy (he ranks 31st in the league in completion percentage on passes of 20 or more air yards), as well as pressure when he has a clean pocket, as he ranks 32nd in that metric as well. He’s outside the top 35 quarterbacks in catchable pass rate and has thrown for fewer than 5 adjusted yards per attempt this season – also outside the top 30. Those aren’t exactly the most encouraging marks for a player facing a much improved Dolphins pass defense that, for now, has ascended from the bottom tier of pass defenses and now ranks league-average in yards allowed per attempt and points allowed per play over the past three weeks, with a will above average turnover differential. Lock needs to take care of the ball much better than he has been (he has eight interceptions in his last four games) for the Broncos to have any shot at a victory. Miami will be happy to run the game away if remains as turnover prone as he’s been.

To exactly no one’s surprise, Jerry Jeudy continues has led the team in targets and air yards over the last three weeks, commanding nearly 30% of the team’s weighted opportunity share and scoring more than 20 fantasy points more than any other Broncos receiver or tight end during that span. But fellow rookie K.J. Hamler has begun to make his mark on the offense as well in recent weeks, earning 10.5 targets per game since week 9. Hamler was still out-gained by both Jeudy and Tim Patrick a week ago, but a game closer to his 90 yards in week 9 should be very possible to repeat, should the consistent pass volume remain. The extra looks for Hamler have come at the expense of Tim Patrick, who’s now fifth on the team in receiving yards since week 7, and Noah Fant, who’s target share has dropped significantly and is now dealing with rib injuries of his own, putting his status for Sunday in question. The Dolphins continue to improve on the outside defensively, now ranking third best in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers over the last five weeks, making this a stay-away spot for essentially the entire receiving corps, except for the most risk-embracing tournament players among us. If picking one player – Hamler, with a salary outside the top 50 wide receivers, seems like the best opportunity per dollar play of the bunch.

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Denver Rushing Game

The Broncos couldn’t get anything going on the ground during their embarrassing loss to the Raiders last Sunday. For the second straight week only carved out 18 total opportunities for Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay combined. Gordon led the way with a meager 13 looks, which he turned into just 45 total yards, nowhere near his salary-based expectation, but Lindsay, who’s been efficient on limited workloads all season, had by far his worst game of the year, earning just four touches and gaining just two total yards. In other words, we’re reaching a point with this backfield that we may just not want to consider either player in daily fantasy football when the Broncos are expected to be playing from behind, which is unfortunately quite often. And that trend could very well continue this week against an upstart Dolphins squad that continues to impress on both sides of the ball.

The Miami defense has raised their yards allowed per carry rank to 14th over the last three weeks (they’re 26th on the year), and they’re within 10% of league average in adjusted line yards allowed per rush attempt. They’re allowing 1 fantasy point per game less to running backs than their average fantasy production over the last five weeks as well, further cementing the idea that Miami has improved immensely from the beginning of the season in run defense. While Gordon might be appealing for some tournament players (he’s at his lowest salary since week 1), Lindsay is almost entirely off the table as an option in daily fantasy football lineups until he proves he’ll get more opportunities. Still, even for Gordon it’s hard to expect more than 15 opportunities, even in a positive game script, meaning he’ll need efficiency and touchdowns to be worthwhile. Especially with Royce Freeman continuing to vulture work at a slightly increased rate, it wouldn’t be the craziest idea to take both players out of your player pool this weekend.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Broncos 21

Jump to Another Matchup

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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