Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (48) Dallas Cowboys (20.25) at Minnesota Vikings (27.75)
Dallas Passing Game
The Cowboys activated Andy Dalton off the COVID-19 reserve list this week, and it looks likely that he’ll return to his first action since taking a huge hit against Washington in week 7. In his first game back, he’ll face a red-hot Vikings team who ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed per attempt and in points allowed per play over the past three weeks. Not to mention, Dalton looked atrocious in his first two starts as a Cowboy, throwing for fewer than 5 yards per attempt (on 54 passes) against the Cardinals in week 6 and fewer than 4 yards per attempt (on 19 passes) against Washington before his injury. He has three times the amount of interceptions as he does touchdowns, and he hasn’t finished inside the top 20 quarterbacks yet this season. These are not numbers that easily inspire confidence. It wouldn’t be the craziest notion that we end up seeing Garret Gilbert, who significantly outperformed expectations against the Steelers in week 9, replace Dalton if he continues to struggle. Dalton’s rather modest salary of $5,300 is somewhat appealing for fantasy gamers who prefer to use a majority of their budget on other positions, and the Awesemo projection seems in line with Dalton’s salary-based expectations, but Dalton will nonetheless be a difficult player to trust in his first game back under center.
The same goes for all three of the Cowboys primary wideouts, as well. None of the trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, or Michael Gallup have had a game with more than seven catches or 80 yards receiving since the Cowboys lost Dak Prescott. The receivers have caught a total of two touchdowns since week 2. And the Vikings aren’t quite as bad against wide receivers are their bottom-10 PFF coverage grade would indicate. They’re right at league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wideouts over the last five weeks. Cooper technically has the most appeal of the three, as the Vikings rank fourth worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to primary wide receivers, but he’s the only worth considering, especially at his modest salary, 26th highest among receivers on the main slate. Lamb, who caught a touchdown from Gilbert in week 10 and Gallup have projections that don’t make the complete fades but certainly don’t make them pop off the page either, indicating they’re both MME players only. The same can be said about Dalton Schultz, who, at one time this season was a fantastic discount tight end option and now is a completely avoidable player for most daily fantasy football players, even at a salary just $600 away from the minimum. It’s probably just better to spend your salary on a team other than the Cowboys.
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Dallas Passing Game
While the Cowboys will (of course) continue to try and get Ezekiel Elliott going, as Elliott still ranks second among all running backs in snap share (77%) over the team’s last seven games, but Elliott’s mid-tier usage should absolutely be an area of concern, as he’s now ranking just 14th in share of team rushes and 15th in opportunity share. He hasn’t posted a game with over 100 total yards since week 5. Needless to say, it’s been a down year for the Cowboys’ workhorse back, but Elliott’s salary continues to slide from the elite running back tier and sits at just $6,500 this week, ninth among running backs, a cool 28% discount from the highest-salary running back on the slate. That’s a very reasonable price for a player who has had exactly 20 touches in six of his last seven outings and still ranks in the top five among active running backs in quality opportunities (targets and goal line rushes) per game. Even though Tony Pollard is absolutely more involved than he was earlier in the year, commanding eight, nine, nine, 10 and 12 touches over the last five weeks, Elliott remains the clear 1A in an offense that, yes, is still looking to find its footing (and its rest-of-season quarterback) after the season-ending injury to Prescott but seemed much improved in week 9, with Garrett Gilbert at the helm rather than rookie Ben DiNucci. Minnesota has been less egregious defending the run than the pass this season, but they still rank 25th in adjusted line yards allowed per play and 26th in rushes of less than one yard allowed, implying their 10th-best yards allowed per carry metric may be a bit of false signal. Elliott seems like a solid salary-adjusted value play in all formats this weekend, and Pollard makes a ton of sense in tournaments while most fantasy gamers focus on Elliott or the passing game options but will be a bit tougher to fit into lineups than weeks past, as he carries with him a slightly inflated $5,600 salary, in the same range as some lower-tier every-down backs, such as Duke Johnson.
Minnesota Passing Game
The Vikings certainly can’t complain about quarterback Kirk Cousins performance in their week 10 win over the division rival Bears, marking three straight wins for Minnesota. Cousins threw for a respectable 8.1 yards per attempt and managed two touchdowns (and only a single interception) against Chicago, who still rank in the top 10 in yards allowed per attempt, making the production all the more impressive. Cousins’ 36 passes were tied for the second most attempts he’s thrown all year, but he couldn’t crack the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. For the eighth time in nine games, Cousins failed to reach 300 yards passing, a particularly crucial threshold on sites with bonuses (such as DraftKings), and Cousins still ranks just 24th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, while also ranking outside the top 20 in crucial advanced metrics such as true completion percentage, total QBR and receiver yards after the catch per target. Nonetheless, the Vikings continue to play efficient football on a per-play basis and actually lead the NFL in yards per pass attempt, which makes the Cousins receiving weapons much more valuable than the player throwing to them. The Awesemo projections see Cousins as an outright fade against the Cowboys, despite Dallas ranking in the bottom 12 in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Cousins’ salary, eighth highest on the main slate, is simply too steep.
Even primary receiving weapon Adam Thielen, who had a two-touchdown performance against Chicago a week ago seems to have an inflated salary in anticipation of a blowup game against the Cowboys. While it’s true that Dallas ranks dead last in points allowed per play, they’re just league average in yards allowed per pass attempt, and over their last three games, have quietly ranked among the top 10 best teams in that metric. They’re still prone to allowing touchdowns, as they rank third worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wideouts, but it’s not quite enough to justify Thielen’s salary, which places him inside the top 10 receivers. Justin Jefferson, who led the team in target share, air yards share, receptions and receiving yards against Chicago – but didn’t find the end zone – might actually be the better value, in spite of only being just a $300 discount from his teammate.
While Dallas hasn’t been quite as susceptible to secondary wide receivers, the Awesemo projections put Jefferson right in line with his salary-based expectations, which makes a ton of sense, considering Jefferson has led the team in virtually every receiving metric (except for red zone target share and end zone target share) over the last three weeks. The only other receiver of consequence, especially with Irv Smith’s status still very much up in the air as of the time of this article’s writing, is tight end Kyle Rudolph, who saw a season-high six targets, just one fewer than Thielen and turned it into 63 yards, also a season high. Though it hasn’t resulted in any huge games, it’s worth noting that Rudolph has just one fewer reception than Thielen over the last three weeks, and with his current workload, he is a touchdown away from being a fantastic value play. At just $3,200, just above minimum salary for tight ends, Rudolph isn’t the worst punt-play tight end at all this weekend, assuming Smith sits. If Smith’s back, it’s probably best to fade all Vikings tight ends and focus on the two stud wideouts.
Minnesota Passing Game
Dalvin Cook led all running backs in total opportunities and in opportunity share in week 10, earning 34 total looks, including four targets, and yet, somehow Cook’s 112 total yards, 15th among all players last week, seemed like somewhat of a disappointment, particularly after back-to-back 225-plus yard games in weeks 8 and 9. Nonetheless, Cook is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack in total yards per game this season, ranking first by nearly the same margin (17.6) as the fifth-ranked player (Davante Adams) is from No. 22 (Kareem Hunt). And now he gets the Dallas defense that ranks 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last fifth and 30th in both adjusted line yards allowed per attempt and attempts allowed to gain less than one yard. The Vikings are, by far, the No. 1 team this week in PFF’s net run advantage (comparing rushing grades to Dallas’ rush defense grades). Assuming Cousins continues his efficient play as a passer, and even ignoring the fact that he’s already had two slate-breaking scores in his last three games, week 11 versus Dallas appears to be Cook’s most straightforward path to success in several weeks. He’ll be close to, if not the most highly utilized player on the slate, but for great reason. Add Cook to cash lineups and move on – it’s simple as that this week.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Cowboys 17
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Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
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