Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (51) Atlanta Falcons (23) at New Orleans Saints (28.25)
Atlanta Passing Game
The Falcons had an extra week to prepare for their division rivals after winning three of their last four games before their bye week in week 10. When we last saw the Falcons offense, Matt Ryan threw over 8 yards per attempt for the fourth straight game (but only the fifth time this season) and tossed three interceptions, en route to 284 yards and 23.4 fantasy points, 11th best among all quarterbacks in week 9. Ryan continues to lead one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league, as the Falcons rank fifth in team pass attempts per game, but more importantly, Ryan has been efficient in moments it’s most necessary, ranking eighth in clean pocket completion percentage and in deep ball completion percentage, which is particularly impressive because Ryan has thrown the third most deep balls (passes of 20 air yards or more) in the entire NFL. Ryan ranks inside the top five in air yards per attempt and inside the top 12 in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt and in quarterback expected points added. Though the Saints are by no means an easy defense (who can forget their shellacking of Tampa Bay two weekends ago), New Orleans ranks around league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and Ryan has a mid-tier salary, seventh among quarterbacks on the main slate, none of which should be enough to move fantasy gamers off of Ryan, who seems like a more-than-adequate option in a game where both teams should score plenty of points. The Awesemo projections are directly in-line with Ryan’s salary-based expectation.
It’s going to be tough however, to stack Ryan with either of his primary weapons, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, due to the receiver duo’s exorbitant salaries. Jones, understandably, is the second-highest-salary wideout on the main slate, which makes plenty of sense when considering Jones has had games with 97, 137 and 137 yards (yes, exactly 137, twice) over his last four games. With Ridley absent in week 9, however, Jones was a huge disappointment, racking up a mere 54 yards receiving, third on the team, instead allowing Hayden Hurst (62 yards on a team-high eight targets) and Olamide Zaccheaus (106 yards and touchdown on six targets) to steal the show and seal the win against the Broncos a week ago. With Ridley expected back this week, expect the big two to once again command roughly 45% of the team’s entire pass volume, 60% if you include Hurst. With his slightly discounted salary of $7,000 (compared to $7,500 for Jones), the Awesemo projections see Ridley as the best value among the Falcons’ big three but are less bullish on Jones, who will likely see plenty of Marshon Lattimore, who’s practicing on a limited basis this week but is expected to play.
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Atlanta Rushing Game
Prior to the Falcons’ bye week, Todd Gurley had been averaging 20 rush attempts over his last seven games, more than double any other back on the team. And while the yardage totals have been, on average, unspectacular, we’ve seen three games with 80-plus total yards, three games with three or more targets and a 150-yard output in week 5. Brian Hill, who saw a season-high 14 looks in week 8, was relegated once again to spell-back duties in the week before the bye. Gurley’s inability to earn quality opportunities (targets or rushes inside the 10) is absolutely a concern, as he ranks outside the top 30 in that metric, especially when Gurley is the 16th-highest-salary running back on the main slate, but Gurley is still a starting running back on a prolific offense, on a team with a large implied team total. Fundamentally, that’s never the worst bet, but the Awesemo projections indicate the salary is simply too steep — he’s barely ranked inside the top 25, making him a fairly easy fade against the Saints, who allow the least amount of schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs in the entire NFL.
New Orleans Passing Game
The Saints were able to beat the 49ers handily in week 10, but the biggest news out of New Orleans, who are expected to be without quarterback Drew Brees for at least the next two games, after taking a hard hit at the end of the first half that results in the cracking of multiple ribs and collapsed lung. Moreover, Brees had not been effective whatsoever prior to injury, throwing for a season-worst 5.8 yards per attempt and 62% completion percentage, Brees’ worst mark since week 2 of 2019 (another game in which he suffered a multi-week injury). Unfortunately for Saints fans, however, Jameis Winston was no better in relief duties, throwing for a nearly identical 60% completion percentage and 6.3 yards per attempt. Winston, at the very least, had a 45% increase in air yards per attempt compared to Brees, but neither totals were particularly impressive. Fantasy gamers rostering Winston in daily fantasy football will be counting on a significant volume (and air yards boost) for the offense as a whole, not to mention the Falcons rank 30th in yards allowed per attempt and dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (by more than 2 fantasy points per game). Based on Tampa Bay Winston, we can expect the ceiling to be as high as the floor is low, but variance isn’t the worst thing to embrace for fantasy gamers in daily fantasy football tournaments, and Winston’s upside is the No. 1 quarterback on the entire slate. The median projection, however, is significantly less rosy, as Winston seems fundamentally overpriced as the 12th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate. The Awesemo projection place Winston outside the top 15 signal-callers.
We can be relatively certain that regardless of the change in quarterback, Michael Thomas will be heavily targeted in this matchup. Thomas, finally recovered from his ankle and hamstring injuries, earned seven targets for the first time all season. Thomas was the only wideout or tight end to earn even five targets in the Saints week 10 win, making his fourth-highest salary among wide receivers entirely justifiable, especially considering the Falcons rank inside the bottom 12 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wide receivers. They’ve even worse to auxiliary options (ranking in the bottom five against both secondary and tertiary options), which also puts Emmanuel Sanders and maybe even Deonte Harris, who commanded the third most targets on the team a week ago but only managed 24 yards. Jared Cook has one game with more than six targets since week 4 and has five games with between two and four looks, meaning he’ll need to catch a touchdown to pay off as the eighth-highest-salary tight end on the main slate. The Awesemo projections indicate that it’s fine for fantasy gamers to fade Cook and opt for higher (or lower) salary options when completing their daily fantasy football lineups.
New Orleans Rushing Game
Alvin Kamara, not unexpectedly, has the highest salary among active running backs on the main slate this Sunday and certainly carries plenty of upside as the home-favorite running back on the highest Vegas total on the slate. But Kamara has more warts on his profile this week than usual and is much further from a set-it-and-forget-it back than first meets the eye. First, he’s dealing with a change at quarterback, and it’s entirely possible Winston will focus more on downfield passes rather than consistent dump-offs to Kamara, as Brees has in recent years. Next, the Falcons rank sixth in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA and in adjusted line yards, and over the last five weeks, they’re No. 1 in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs (it’s not particularly close). Despite Kamara’s league-leading quality opportunities per game and quality opportunity share among running backs, Latavius Murray continues to receive roughly 20% of the team’s opportunities, making him a consistent threat for goal line work, and Taysom Hill has earned 16% or more of team rushes in the last two weeks, further decreasing the expect workload, at least on the ground, for Kamara. Even the Awesemo projections believe the salary for Kamara, given the matchup, is a little too steep. He’s still ranked among the top five running backs, and a 30-point game’s never out of the question for Kamara, but the probability of that ceiling game is lower in this spot than many would first expect. Here’s far from a full fade, but fantasy gamers need to remain wary of the dangers of this matchup before going all in on Kamara in daily fantasy football this weekend.
Prediction: Saints 33, Falcons 30
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