Matt Savoca’s Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (48.5) Tennessee Titans (20.75) at Baltimore Ravens (27.75)

Tennessee Passing Game

It’s now been four weeks in a row that the Tennessee Titans have sputtered offensively, and as a result, Ryan Tannehill and company are 1-3 during that span. Tannehill, after a hot start that saw him rank inside the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring three times in the first six weeks of the season, hasn’t placed better than 12th among quarterbacks in any week since, averaging just 190 yards passing from week 7 onward. At the very least, Tannehill has kept his turnovers low, only throwing one interception compared to seven touchdown passes in those four games. Still, a 55% completion percentage and 147 yards passing, Tannehill’s stat line against the Colts in week 10, is an atrocious output for any quarterback and certainly not good enough for a player with the 10th-highest salary at the quarterback position. And now he’ll face a Baltimore Ravens defense that ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt and best in the NFL in points allowed per play. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in Tannehill or his passing weapons for week 11, in spite of the offense possessing multiple game-breaking play makers at the skill positions.

Though it hasn’t resulted in as much production as it had earlier in the season, the passing game continues to funnel toward the Titans’ two main outside weapons, Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Since week 7, Davis has an ever so slight edge over Brown in weighted opportunity share, but Brown has out-gained Davis 299 to 233 during that span and continued his insane touchdown rate this season, as Brown now has six scores in just seven games played (and only seven red zone targets). An astonishing 46% of Brown’s receiving yards this season have come after the catch, but that hasn’t stopped him from being a red zone target hog, either, as Brown ranks second on the team since week 4 in red zone and end-zone targets (to tight end Jonnu Smith, who had his highest target total since week 3 versus Indianapolis last week). Davis continues to have his best season as a pro and gained a team-high 67 receiving yards in week 10, an indicator of just how poor this passing game played when we last saw them. From a daily fantasy football value standpoint, Davis, who’s just the 33rd-highest-salary receiver on the main slate, might make the most sense, as the Awesemo projections rank him significantly higher than salary-based expectations. But the other key skill players, Brown and Smith, both have salaries within the top five at their position. For Brown, the median projection doesn’t match the salary at all, which doesn’t mean it’s impossible for him to hit, but it means it’s less likely in this spot than salary would suggest. The Ravens are an above average defense (in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) to wide receivers in general, but they’ve been most susceptible to secondary wideouts, giving yet another slight boost to Davis.


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Tennessee Rushing Game

Derrick Henry saw his typical workload last Thursday night, earning 37% of the Titans’ opportunities, within 2% of his season-long average and managed 109 total yards. But without a touchdown (and only one reception, which is also typical), Henry’s production was quite modest for his standards. The Colts did a relatively decent job of limiting Henry in their week 10 victory, and despite that, Henry was still able to average over 5 yards per opportunity, a reminder of Henry’s rock-solid fantasy floor. But in week 10, facing a Ravens defense that allows nearly 5 fantasy points fewer per game to running backs than their season average, Henry could struggle to reach a ceiling-level score, which is absolutely what fantasy gamers need this weekend, as Henry carries with him a salary of $8,000, third among active running backs on the main slate. Betting on Henry to gain 100-plus rushing yards and fall into the end zone is never a terribly bad bet, but even on DraftKings (with the 100-yard rush bonus), he’ll need much more than that, about 24 points, to be a value play this weekend. Henry will make sense as a contrarian option this week (his projected ownership is currently less than 6%) in tournaments, but there are likely more interesting values at the position in week 11. Henry’s probability of producing a have-to-have-it score is never zero, but it’s lower than usual this week.

Baltimore Passing Game

The Ravens offense came up one score short in week 10, on the road against the Patriots (and in a torrential downpour), but quarterback Lamar Jackson managed to throw for 249 yards on 34 attempts, his second-best passing yardage output of the 2020 season. Week 10 marked the fourth straight game where Jackson has thrown for between 6.9 and 7.4 yards per attempt, which is just middle of the road in that metric and particularly disappointing after Jackson topped 8.5 yards per attempt in three of his first four starts this season. Still, Jackson’s dual threat ability was on full display Sunday, as he ran for an additional 55 yards (a yardage total we take for granted with Jackson, since it occurs so often), good enough for the seventh-highest fantasy point total among all quarterbacks last week. And now Jackson gets to face a Titans defense that quietly ranks in the bottom five in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. Jackson is the highest-salary quarterback on the slate this weekend for good reason – he should have every opportunity to shine as both a passer and rusher.

Mark Andrews continues to lead this passing game, which ranks 30th in the NFL in team pass attempts per game, in target share, earning four, five, six, nine and nine looks over his last five games. He ranks first on the team in red zone target share and second in end zone targets since week 4, and he’s had the sixth-highest air yards share among all tight ends (20%) in that same span. The issue here, of course, is salary, as Andrews is suddenly the highest-salary tight end on the main slate (due to Travis Kelce and Darren Waller being in a primetime matchup and George Kittle still being injured), making him difficult to create space for in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend. But he’s still the primary weapon in the Jackson-led passing game and therefore absolutely needs to be considered in this plus matchup for the Baltimore aerial attack. Marquise Brown, the team leader in end zone targets since week 4, also has an exorbitant salary compared to his usage. Brown hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since week 5 and yet has a salary just outside the top 15 receivers on the main slate. The Awesemo projections are bearish on Brown this weekend, to say the least. If recent usage is any indicator, the better tournament option might be Willie Snead, who’s seen seven targets in two of his last three games and leads the wide receivers in targets over the last three weeks, except even Snead’s seen a salary bump in anticipation of a plus matchup. With the projections (versus salary-based expectations) equally poor for Snead as they are for Brown – it wouldn’t be crazy at all if fantasy gamers moved away from the non-Andrews pass catchers in this offense.

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Baltimore Rushing Game

The Ravens welcomed back Mark Ingram to the fold in week 10, and it officially zapped all the fantasy value from the entire Baltimore backfield. With five active running backs (including fullback Patrick Ricard), Baltimore gave no back, nor Jackson, even 16% of the backfield opportunities. Gus Edwards led the way with a mere nine opportunities, while J.K. Dobbins and Ingram saw seven apiece, and, of course, Jackson added seven designed rushes on top of four scrambles, giving him the most total rushing attempts and reconfirmed that he’s the only rusher on the Ravens worth trusting from week to week (except for the most risk-embracing large-field tournament players among us). No single Ravens running back has seen more than two targets since week 6, and since week 3, only two players have recorded a single outing with 15 or more opportunities. Disregarding the fact that the Ravens offense is middle of the road from an efficiency standpoint, from a fantasy perspective – this backfield is a disgusting four-man committee, diluted by a rushing quarterback, meaning the rushers have no business being considered from cash games this weekend. The Titans rank exactly league average in adjusted line yards allowed, making this matchup somewhat of a wash on paper, but from an opportunity standpoint, all Ravens rushers are simply too thin of a play this weekend. Look elsewhere for your running backs and find a way to squeeze in Jackson if you want a piece of the Baltimore rushing attack.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Titans 26

Jump to Another Matchup

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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