Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (47.5) Philadelphia Eagles (22) at Cleveland Browns (25.5)
Philadelphia Passing Game
The Eagles haven’t played anyone outside of the NFC East (objectively the worst division in football) since week 6, and yet, Carson Wentz has managed to score fewer than 10 fantasy points in two straight contests, absolutely crushing fantasy gamers who chose to roster him in what appeared to be plus matchups. Wentz, in the midst of his rockiest season as a starter, continues to attempt to mount a high-volume aerial attack but simply hasn’t been efficient enough for it to result in consistent scoring from his offense. Despite ranking fourth in the NFL in team pass attempts per game, and Wentz ranking in the top three in total deep balls thrown, Wentz ranks outside the top 30 quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt. He has the most passes graded as interceptable in the NFL, and he ranks outside the top 35 passers this season in red zone completion percentage. That’s a recipe for disaster on offense in general, but once again, fantasy gamers will be forced to decide if the matchup is enticing enough to go back to Wentz, as Cleveland ranks below league average in points allowed per play and eighth-worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Awesemo projections aren’t particularly intrigued by Wentz, as he ranks in line (if not slightly behind) his salary-based expectations, and the Eagles rank outside the top 12 in Awesemo’s top-stack probability rankings as well.
At the very least for Philadelphia, they’re getting healthier at the skill positions. In recent weeks, the offense has welcomed back Miles Sanders (see below), Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert and now expects to have Zach Ertz back in the fold soon, if not this Sunday. In spite of this change in personnel, Travis Fulgham, who made a name for himself with multiple 20 fantasy point scores earlier this season and is the only Eagles receiver to top 80 yards all season, tied for the team lead in snap share, playing on 88% of the team’s offensive plays. But he only had five targets for an anemic 8 receiving yards in week 10. Instead, it was backup tight end Richard Rodgers (who received extra playing time while Goedert spent time in the medical tent mid-game) who led the way with (just) 60 receiving yards. Reagor has just 63 yards receiving in his first two games back, and Goedert’s been equally unimpressive since returning, totaling just five receptions for 38 yards. Until the Eagles can get their offense sorted out, this passing game’s looking like an easy spot to avoid, with the exception of possible Goedert, if Ertz isn’t quite ready to play this weekend. You won’t be alone putting Goedert in daily fantasy football lineups this Sunday, however, as Goedert is currently projected to be the third-most utilized tight end on the slate.
Editor’s Note:
Looking to hedge your daily fantasy football lineups with some prop bets? Join the future of NFL DFS by checking out OddsShopper today. Shopping for the best odds on a bet is the most efficient way to beat the books. As well, with an Awesemo+ package you get stats broken down from our daily fantasy football projections so you can get an edge on the field. Just click on the image below to start shopping!
Philadelphia Rushing Game
After a two and a half game hiatus recovering from an ankle injury, Sanders returned to the Eagles lineup and received his largest workload since week 3, earning 21 looks (the next highest number of opportunities was seven) and turning that into 97 total yards. Sanders has now reached at least 90 total yards in four of his last five starts (including the week 6 game he left early), and his 98 total yards per game now ranks fifth among active running backs this season. Though it was backfield mate Boston Scott who found the end zone, Scott was limited to just four total opportunities and only one target. Scott happened to make the most of his touches though, finishing with an extremely efficient 19 yards per opportunity. Cleveland has been middle of the road against running backs this season, ranking almost exactly league acreage in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, but they’ve been particularly stout against the rush, ranking in the top eight in the NFL in adjusted line yards allowed per attempt and fifth in open-field yards allowed. Making matters worse, Sanders now has an increased salary of $6,900, meaning he’ll need a score of nearly 21 points to be considered a value play this weekend. He’s achieved that score in 33% of his starts this season, making him far from a bad play but more of a tournament option than a cash game lock. With Scott, talented as he is, seeing a maximum of four looks in games that Sanders stays healthy, he’s too thin of a play even in MME contests, especially at an elevated salary of $5,600.
Cleveland Passing Game
The Browns managed to come out on the winning side of a terrible-weather game in week 10, but the passing offense looked eerily similar in both games (which was to be expected, to an extent), as Baker Mayfield was asked to do essentially nothing except hand the ball off. Mayfield attempted just 20 passes and completed 12 total passes for 132 yards and zero touchdowns. He has now scored fewer than 8 fantasy points in three of the Browns last four outings, never placing better than 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. In short, regardless of matchup, the Browns focus so much on the ground game that playing Mayfield or his pass catchers are tournament plays only, and not necessarily strong ones at that, despite this appearing like a plus matchup on paper. The Eagles rank sixth worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but the Awesemo projections indicate that Mayfield’s salary of $5,400, 17th highest among quarterbacks, is still too steep. It’s probably best that daily fantasy football gamers simply look elsewhere at quarterback.
With Browns’ receivers and tight ends far from the focal point of the offense, blowup games have been few and far between for these skill players, making them all relatively thin plays on the main slate this weekend. Only Rashard Higgins has had a 100 yard receiving game since Odell Beckham went down for the season, and Jarvis Landry has yet to top 55 yards receiving during that span, as well. Austin Hooper saw his first two targets since week 6 last week but is still working his way back into the offense and will continue to be a thin play in all fantasy football formats, though the Eagles do rank third worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving a slight boost to Hooper’s ceiling. His floor, however, is still as low as it gets.
Cleveland Rushing Game
The Cleveland wind and rain were the perfect conditions for the return of Nick Chubb, and with it the one-two punch at running back in the NFL. And the duo did not disappoint, each earning 20-plus opportunities and gaining 100-plus yards in the Browns week 10 win. Somewhat surprisingly, Kareem Hunt still led the way with 23 opportunities, though and earned four targets to Chubb’s one, but Chubb seemed to be at or near 100% health-wise. Chubb’s triumphant return means that Cleveland can return to their ‘true’ offensive identity, dedicating 40 opportunities per game to the running back position, thus limiting the downfield work for Mayfield and the passing game. And as was the case last Sunday, when teams can’t stop Hunt or Chubb (the Browns averaged 5.6 yards per attempt), they’re perfectly content to keep the ball on the ground and shorten the game. The Eagles aren’t quite Houston-level bad (the Texans rank 32nd in yards per carry), but they haven’t exactly been a stout run defense over the past few weeks either, ranking 26th in yards allowed per carry over their last three games. The only issue for daily fantasy football players this week, however, is salary, as both Chubb and Hunt have salaries within the top eight running backs, leaving little margin for error for either player. Both players will need 21-plus DraftKings points to return value at their salary, but that’s far from out of the question for either player, especially if the Browns can take control of the game early. The Awesemo projections are slightly more bullish on Hunt, whose salary remains below Chubb’s despite a higher receiving (and overall) workload.
Prediction: Browns 24, Eagles 17
Jump to Another Matchup
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
