Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (48.5) New England Patriots (25) at Houston Texans (23.5)
New England Passing Game
The Patriots may have come out of their week 10 (monsoon) game victorious, but it was yet another game to forget for the New England passing attack, as Cam Newton only threw 17 pass attempts (his fifth game this season with 25 or fewer passes) for just 118 yards. It’s the sixth time Newton has passed for fewer than 200 yards in a game this season and the fourth time in six game that Newton hasn’t been able to average even 7 yards per attempt. Of course, the majority of Cam’s fantasy points come via the ground these days, and at the very least, Newton was able to add 21 yards and a score, putting him in the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring food the second week in a row. It’s no secret that Newton is a more diminished passer than even the version we saw in Carolina, but the advanced metrics continue to bear that out. He now ranks outside the top 25 passers in air yards, adjusted yards per attempts and true passer rating. In short, this is not a player to trust simply because the team has trouble stopping the pass.
But, even with all that said, against Houston, the pass may prove to be the best way to beat the Texans defense. The Texans are dead last in yards allowed per pass attempt and in the bottom three in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary wideouts, which at least gives some credence to Newton – Jakobi Meyers stacks. Meyers, to his great credit, has been a bright spot of the New England passing game, earning nearly 49% of the target share and air yards share over the Patriots’ last three games and gaining over 150 more receiving yards than any other Patriots’ receiver during that span. He’s even tied for the team lead in red zone target share. No other receiver or tight end has scored more than 18 fantasy points during that span, and, even more exciting for fantasy gamers, Meyers’ salary doesn’t reflect the changing of the guard in the New England passing attack, as he’s still just $4,900, 31st among receivers on the main slate. The Awesemo projections indicate he’s one of the best projected targets per dollar plays on the entire slate.
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New England Rushing Game
The Patriots chose a rush heavy, possession-based offensive attack during the putrid weather of week 10’s matchup against the Ravens, which resulted in a season-high 22 opportunities for second-year running back Damien Harris (who came into the game with a questionable tag but played uninhibited nonetheless), which resulted in a team-high 121 yards and a touchdown. It’s the third game (in just six played this year) in which Harris has accumulated at least 100 total yards in a game and the fifth in which he’s his 70. He now ranks 18th among all running backs in yards per game, and he’s done it with nearly zero receiving work. Harris hasn’t seen more than one target in a game all season and hasn’t had a pass thrown his way since week 7, which makes his lead in yardage all the more impressive. Rex Burkhead remained involved as well, earning 10 touches but only averaging 6.6 yards per touch. He hasn’t hit 70 yards in a game since week 3, meaning he essentially needs touchdowns to be valuable, which continues to be complicated by Newton’s red zone rushing usage.
Newton ran on designed runs 11 times last Sunday and ultimately scored but was bottled up from a yardage standpoint, gaining less than two yards per carry. And we can’t forget about James White, who still averages a backfield-high 4.6 targets per game but is stymied by Burkhead’s passing game involvement. In short, it’s a mess of a committee in New England. The only player worth rostering from most in daily fantasy football lineups is likely Harris, who continues to see bell cow carries in this run-first offense, against a Houston defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per carry this season. At less than 2% projected ownership, Harris will be a great mid-tier differentiation option at the running back position, particularly in tournaments. But on paper, this matchup looks juicy enough that he might even be considered in cash games. Burkhead and White are MME options only but can be stacked with Newton, as a large enough amount of their production comes through the air.
Houston Passing Game
The Texans’ offense, possibly stymied in part by terrible weather, couldn’t get anything going through the air in their week 10 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Whether it was weather or some other factor, Deshaun Watson had arguably his worst game this season, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt on 30 throws, good enough for a season-worst 163 yards passing. It was also his first game since week 2 without throwing for two or more touchdowns, and yet Watson’s fantasy points per game ranking dropped to just eighth among quarterbacks this season. He’s still an undoubtedly elite option at the position, who continues to rank among the top 10 quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt, clean pocket completion percentage and true passer rating. Even in the middle of this season to forget for the Texans, Watson ranks ninth in total passing touchdowns and eighth in passing yards. He’s unquestionably one of the best signal callers in the league, and he’s facing a Patriots defense that has been much more susceptible to opposing passing attacks than the public believes. The patriots rank 31st in the NFL yards allowed per attempt and well below average in points allowed per play, indicating that this may very well be a highly exploitable matchup for Watson, even if the Texans ultimately lose the game. The projections on Awesemo.com absolutely love Watson, even at his $6,500 salary, fifth highest among quarterbacks on the slate.
After games of 100 and 83 yards, respectively, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks tied for the team lead in targets in week 8 last week, but neither was able to do anything of note with the opportunity, each finishing with under 40 yards receiving. Randall Cobb, third on the target totem pole technically led the way in the receiving game but only had 41 total yards, an indicator that the entire Texans offense was a stay-away option in the elements against Cleveland. Back home in Houston, however, Cooks and Fuller should be back to commanding their 7-10 targets and 70-plus air yards, in a matchup against the New England secondary that slipped to 14th in PFF’s team coverage grade. It’s not an easy matchup by any means, but the Awesemo projections like the upside of both of Watson’s primary weapons (and possibly Cobb), much more than auxiliary weapons such as Kenny Stills and Darren Fells, who are large-field tournament plays only.
Houston Rushing Game
With David Johnson officially placed on injured reserve while recovering from a concussion, Duke Johnson got his start as a member of the Houston Texans Sunday and was the leader in opportunity share by a large amount, seeing 15 looks while the next closest Texans player saw just eight in week 10. All things considered, however, the 15 opportunities were somewhat of a disappointment for fantasy gamers who played Johnson at a discounted salary expecting 20-plus looks in a bad weather game. Instead the Texans (as well as the Browns on the other side of the ball) slowed the game down, limiting their total number of plays, and Johnson was downright horrendous on his touches, adding just 54 total yards, which amounts to a putrid 3.6 yards per opportunity. But if there’s any silver lining, it’s that Johnson will undoubtedly be the backfield leader in touches once again, and his salary has barely increased despite that information, up just $600 (12%) from last week.
Even though the Patriots shut down the Ravens rushing attack (also in a bad weather game), the Patriots rank 22nd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed over the last five weeks, 30th in PFF’s rush defense grade, and 31nd in Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA. In short: this an exploitable front seven. Despite Houston’s below-average offensive line (PFF ranks the Texans 27th in team rush blocking grade), Johnson once again has massive potential in a game where Houston will likely need to control the clock with an effective rushing attack. Fantasy gamers would be wise to go back to the well on Johnson, who’s once again in a strong situation, while other players are too angry to play him in their own daily fantasy football lineups after his disappointing week 10.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Texans 21
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New England Patriots at Houston Texans
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