Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (46.5) Cincinnati Bengals (22.25) a Washington Football Team (24.25)
Cincinnati Passing Game
Joe Burrow was a bit of a mess in the Bengals’ week 10 loss to Pittsburgh. Burrow still threw for (what’s now become his typical) 300-plus air yards but was only able to complete 52% of his passes against the Pittsburgh defense and averaged just 5.3 yards per attempt, en route to his worst fantasy finish since week 5 against the Ravens. Burrow now ranks second in the NFL in total pass attempts and fifth in air yards. But compared to the amount of pass volume he’s dished out, Burrow’s been rather inefficient on a per play basis. He now ranks 26th in the league in adjusted yards per attempt and 30th in true completion percentage. He also has been untrustable once the Bengals get near the goal line, ranking 30th in the league in red zone completion percentage. According to PFF, Burrow is drastically underperforming his expected fantasy points per game mark, which indicates he should be second in the NFL in fantasy scoring. In reality, he’s 17th. This week he gets a Washington defense that began the year red hot but has been dealing with injuries of late and now ranks league average in yards allowed per pass attempt, schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed and points allowed per play. PFF grades the squad slightly better, ranking them 10th in coverage and eighth overall as a defense, but that’s not enough to move the needle for the Awesemo projections. Burrow looks like an excellent value as the 16th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate.
Fantasy gamers will need to keep track of the Bengals’ late-week injury reports, as Tee Higgins popped up with an illness this week, putting his availability for Sunday in question. Losing Higgins would be significant as he’s been the team’s best receiver of late, earning 79 and 104 air yards, which he turned into 78 and 115 receiving yards, in back to back contests, all best on the team. A.J. Green continued to be fed dozens of empty air yards, earning 89 in total a week ago but not coming down with a single catch on five targets. In fact, besides Higgins no other receiver reached even 45 total yards. Tyler Boyd, who stands to gain the most in target share and likely production, should Higgins be forced to sit, got closest, with 41 yards. He’s also the last non-Higgins wideout to reach 100 yards (in week 7). The Awesemo projections still Boyd as the best value play of the bunch and, shockingly, still have some faith in Green, in spite of his complete lack of production (he ranks 71st in expected fantasy points per game). At this point in the year, after letting so many fantasy gamers down multiple times, Green’s nearly impossible to trust, even with a salary outside the top 50 wide receivers this weekend.
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Cincinnati Rushing Game
With the Bengals in intensive protocols, it’s unknown (as of the time of this article’s writing) if Joe Mixon will be able to return to the field in week 11 against Washington, but it’s safe to presume that even if he does suit up, it’s unlikely that Mixon, who’s foot injury has had him listed as week to week since week 6, will see a full workload, as he did earlier in the season. More likely, however, is yet another week of Giovani Bernard as the backfield leader, with Samaje Perine getting (some) early-down and between-the-tackles looks as well. That was the plan in week 10, at least, as Bernard saw 15 opportunities, his third straight game reaching the 15-look threshold but managed an atrocious 47 total yards on those looks. Perine, who only had eight touches, managed to out-gain the starter Bernard 55-to-47. But in all, it was a forgettable weekend, as the Bengals continued to get pummeled by the Steelers’ vaunted defense. Week 11’s matchups isn’t much better at all, as Washington ranks in the top 12 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and well above average in adjusted line yards allowed, indicating the Bengals’ backs will likely need to do damage through the air to be a value play for fantasy gamers this weekend. This makes Bernard, the 25th-highest-salary running back on the main slate, an excellent value, particularly if Mixon sits once again. Regarding Mixon, listen closely to pregame messaging. If reports out of Washington are that Mixon’s all systems go (like Dalvin Cook in week 7 after his own injury), then Mixon could actually be a sneakily great play. If not, expect the dreaded running back by committee, and consider all three of Mixon, Bernard and Perine stay-away options this weekend.
Washington Passing Game
What’s gotten into Alex Smith? In a strange turn of events, Smith threw 55 passes last Sunday, completing 70% of his passes and averaging more than 7 yards per attempt, for a total of 390 yards passing. After just one game during the 2018 season with over 300 yards passing, Smith has now thrown for over 325 in yards in both starts this season and kept Washington competitive for all 60 minutes of the game – which isn’t something you can always say about them. While Smith’s fantasy production has been a bit lacking (his 0 touchdown passes last Sunday certainly held him back), Smith has been back to methodical, conservative self as a passer, ranking outside the top 30 passers in air yards per attempt but among the top signal-callers in the league in true completion percentage. The sample size is small, yes, but he has the best play-action completion percentage in the NFL. More, the Washington offense appears competent and capable with Smith at the helm – fantasy gamers should expect increased efficiency from this offense as the season continues, and it could come as early as this week, as the Bengals rank 28th in the NFL yards allowed per pass attempt over their last three games and bottom 10 in the league in points allowed per play this season. He’s a fine discount option as the 19th-highest-salary quarterback on the main slate.
Besides utilizing J.D. McKissic as a de facto receiver (see Washington Rushing Game, below) Smith hasn’t drastically shifted the distribution of targets from previous Washington quarterbacks this year, with Terry McLaurin continuing to lead the way in targets and in air yards. McLaurin has seen at least seven targets in each of Washington’s last seven contests and has only had fewer than 75 yards receiving once during that same span. Since week 4, he ranks eighth among all wideouts in receiving yards per game, and the Bengals are particularly weak against primary wideouts, ranking among the 10 worst teams in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position group. Needless to say, the Awesemo projections love McLaurin even as the seventh-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate. The only other place fantasy gamers should be looking (unless playing in large-field tournaments) is Logan Thomas, who has had between four and six targets in every game since week 4. He’ll need a touchdown to be valuable in daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, but that’s true for the entire position. With Smith favoring short area targets and Thomas’ salary outside the top 15 tight ends, Thomas makes a ton of sense for fantasy gamers in week 11.
Washington Rushing Game
After playing on 83% of Washington’s snaps in week 9, receiving specialist McKissic made noise out of the Washington backfield once again Sunday, playing on 70% of snaps and earning 23 total opportunities, most on the team, including a staggering 15 targets, by far most among running backs last weekend. McKissic’s 28% target share (second among all running backs) follows up a week 9 game where he ranked first in that metric, further solidifying McKissic as a premier receiving-game back that can be counted on in a major way with Smith at the helm, especially on full-PPR sites like DraftKings. Though McKissic only averaged a paltry 3.2 yards per target, he remains a solid option against the Bengals, who rank 17th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Rookie Antonio Gibson, though he’s playing less than in previous weeks, continues to command early down and goal line work and still out-gained McKissic on six fewer touches a week ago, while tacking on two scores, en route to his best fantasy output as a pro. With Washington spending plenty of time playing McKissic in the slot (he’s averaging 13 slot snaps per game), they’re able to use both of the backfield playmakers at the same time, which means both could be quality options, particularly in tournaments this weekend. Even with a salary just $600 more than McKissic, Gibson is the slightly better choice, as his probability of scoring a touchdown is higher, but McKissic is nearly a lock for seven targets (he’s had eight or more targets in four of his last six games), creating a fantastic PPR floor for a player who’s salary takes up just over 10% of your budget on DraftKings.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Washington 27
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