Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (47.5) Pittsburgh Steelers (28.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (19)
Pittsburgh Passing Game
After a wild week that kept quarterback Ben Roethlisberger away from the team all week, the Steelers still came out passing in week 11 versus Cincinnati, with Roethlisberger throwing a season-high 46 times and finishing with his second straight 300 yard passing performance. He also found the end zone four times (a first this season) and threw zero interceptions for the third game in a row, en route to his best fantasy performance of the season, third among all quarterbacks last week. Roethlisberger now sits at fifth in the NFL in passing TD’s and, despite elbow surgery that forced him to miss 14 games last season, ranks fifth in the NFL in passing of 20 or more yards downfield. Considering the relatively high volume, it’s excellent to see Roethlisberger’s adjusted yards per attempt numbers among the top 15 passers, along with his true passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. Even better, especially considering Roethlisberger’s advanced age (and a minor knee injury), the Steelers offensive line ranks third in the NFL in pass protection rate. Similar to last week, the Steelers, on paper, outmatch the Jaguars in every offensive phase, ranking No. 1 in PFF net overall advantage (comparing offensive overall grades to corresponding defensive overall grades), and the Jaguars rank 29th in the NFL in the schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Roethlisberger’s salary of $6,700, third highest among quarterbacks, is steep, but he’s absolutely one of the highest-floor quarterback options on the slate this weekend.
In a picture-perfect scenario for fantasy gamers (and those looking to stack the Steelers offense), Pittsburgh focused a majority of their targets on their big three receivers in week 10, giving all three of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson 11-plus targets. Smith-Schuster ended up leading the way in the yardage department, but it was Johnson and Claypool that stole the show from a fantasy perspective. The three combined for a whopping 70.9 fantasy points a week ago, by far the most among any trio of receivers last week. Over the Steelers’ last five games, the three have combined for nearly 70% of the team’s weighted opportunity share, and along with Eric Ebron, make up nearly 85% of the Pittsburgh passing volume. During that same time span, the Jaguars have ranked in the bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to primary, secondary and tertiary wideouts, again creating a scenario where any one (or more) of Johnson, Smith-Schuster, or Claypool make a ton of sense when creating daily fantasy football lineups. The Awesemo projections point to Johnson, the lowest-salary wideout of the trio, as the play relative to salary-based expectations, but all three players are ranked inside the top 15 wideouts this weekend. Ebron, at just $4,000, ninth highest among tight ends, might be the best value play of them all, though the Jaguars have been better at stopping tight ends than outside weapons so far this season.
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Pittsburgh Rushing Game
Week 10 was the second straight massively disappointing day from running back James Conner, who played on 88% of the Steelers snaps (unlike a week ago) but failed to crest 50 total yards (just like a week ago), a threshold Conner had exceeded in six straight contests from weeks 2 through 8. Conner was simply a non-factor, earning a putrid 3.2 yards per opportunity on 15 opportunities, an ever-so-slight increase from his 11 looks against the Cowboys a week ago. Conner now ranks 32nd among running backs in quality opportunities (targets + goal line rushes) per game, meaning he’s also being bogged down by low-leverage plays, as well. Conner does have a slightly decreased salary, as he’s now $6,600, down $300 from his salary against Cincinnati, but with so little high-value usage, it’s hard to trust Conner in any matchup, despite the Jaguars ranking 31st in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last five weeks, and third over the course of the season. The Pittsburgh offense has proven to be at its most efficient when it’s utilizing a pass-oriented approach (they’re above league average in both true early down pass rate and air yards per second of possession in neutral game scripts), which has led to increased opportunities for the Steelers’ auxiliary passing weapons, at the expense of the rushing game. Conner is still a solid bet for 60-plus total yards and a touchdown in any game the Steelers project as favorites, as they once again do this weekend, but he’s a much thinner play than fantasy gamers may have thought earlier in the season, especially at an elevated salary that places him among the top nine active running backs on the main slate.
Jacksonville Passing Game
While the scoreboard may have said the Jaguars’ week 10 game was close, rookie quarterback Jake Luton’s level of play came crashing back down to earth after an impressive debut in a loss against the Texans in week 8. Luton threw for a putrid 4.8 yards per attempt and threw a costly interception against a banged-up Packers defense, allowing the Packers to get in a win on a day they severely underperformed as a team. The Jaguars quarterback is having myriad problems as a passer but continues to be bailed out by broken plays (and in the case of week 10, some special teams help as well), in order to keep the games close. Luton ranks outside the top 30 passers in catchable pass rate, passes graded as interceptable and quarterback expected points added per game. In spite of one blow-up game from D.J. Chark in week 9, from an efficiency and production standpoint, there’s no tangible difference between the Luton-led Jaguars offense and Minshew-led Jaguars offense.
Beyond running James Robinson (see below), Jacksonville continues to spread the ball fairly flatly among their four primary weapons. In week 9, the leader in target share, far and away, was D.J. Chark, but it swung back towards Chris Conley in week 10, as Conley has now seen eight looks in back to back games with Luton at the helm. Keelan Cole, who had by far the most productive day as a receiver (and added the touchdown in the return game), also saw a healthy seven targets. But Chark still managed to out-gain them all, on just five targets, leading the wideouts in receiving yards for the second week in a row. Tyler Eifert continues to see decent volume (for a tight end), having earned 16 targets over his last three games, but he’s yet to turn those looks into more than 48 yards. Nonetheless, the Awesemo projections are highest on Eifert, as a decent punt-play tight end with a salary outside the top 20 tight ends, or gadget option Laviska Shenault, who’s set to return to the lineup after recovering from a hamstring injury. Expect Shenault to take up a chunk of the short-area targets previously reserved for Chris Thompson, who was placed on IR a week ago. Cole’s projection also comes in well ahead of salary-based expectation this weekend.
Jacksonville Rushing Game
Rookie running back Robinson continued his fantastic rookie season with another solid outing, logging 83% of the Jaguars snaps and leading the team in opportunity share for the ninth week in a row. In fact, Robinson’s 49% of team opportunities, unsurprising on a windy day at Lambeau Field, was a season high for the rookie. His 112 total yards were his fifth-highest total of the season, and it was his seventh game this season cresting 90. He is having one of the best seasons of any running back in the NFL this season, but due to the matchup against Pittsburgh, he only has the 13th-highest salary among running backs in week 11. While the Steelers are by no means easy to beat on the ground, they haven’t been quite as impenetrable as their top-three defensive DVOA, ranking just league average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. With passing game specialist Thompson (and his 3.3 targets per game) going on injured reserve, eliminating the possibility that Robinson would be taken out in blowout or garbage-time scenarios, Robinson could easily catch five or more passes (something he’s only done twice this year), drastically increasing his floor, particularly on full-PPR sites like DraftKings. Ten weeks into his rookie year, Robinson continues to drastically outpace the historical trendline in evaded tackles per touch, meaning he’s been outlier-level efficient on the seventh-highest opportunity per game average in the entire NFL. Embrace the risk and the tough matchup on paper with Robinson and play him with relative confidence.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Jaguars 21
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