Matt Savoca’s Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown Column

Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (47) New York Jets (19) at Los Angeles Chargers (28)

New York Jets Passing Game

The Jets return to the field after a week 10 bye and with Joe Flacco still at the helm, at least for one more week as Sam Darnold nurses a shoulder injury. Flacco had his best game in three seasons in a week 9 loss to New England, completing 72% of his passes at 10.5 yards per attempt and adding three touchdowns, good enough for the first top-15 fantasy performance by a Jets quarterback all season. The sample size (as a Jet) is still small, of course, but Flacco quietly leads the league in air yards per pass attempt, but that’s where the good news ends. Flacco’s advanced metrics signal a player on the verge of yet another Jets-like performance, as he ranks 34th in deep ball completion percentage, 33rd in play action completion percentage and 27th in adjusted yards per attempt. And this week, he gets a Los Angeles Chargers defense that ranks in the top 12 in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt. Though the Chargers have been far from perfect defensively (they rank bottom five in the NFL in points allowed per play and bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks), it’s not enough to move the needle much at all with Flacco. The Awesemo projections see Flacco as a slight value compared to salary-based expectations but still rank him outside the top 20 quarterbacks on the main slate.

In the midst of such a poor season, it was nice to see Flacco find a connection with Breshad Perriman, who had his best performance of the season with five catches, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 9. It marked the first time a Jets receiver not named Jamison Crowder had crested 100 yards this season. Crowder, surprisingly, was held to a season-low two targets (after games of 10, 10 and 13 targets in his previous three outings and was out-targeted and out-gained by rookie receiver Denzel Mims, who has now seen 18 targets over the Jets last three games. The Chargers rank at or better than league average against primary, secondary and tertiary wideouts in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, making this a tough matchup for all Jets wideouts on paper, but if tournament players were looking for a run-back option, the Awesemo projections suggest the best spot to look isn’t Crowder but rather the rookie Mims. His $3,300 salary makes him easy to fit into lineups and has a projection inside the top 40 wideouts this weekend.


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New York Jets Rushing Game

The Jets continue to sport the least exciting backfield in the NFL, with two-man committee of Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine splitting between 20 and 25 opportunities in each game since Le’Veon Bell was released after week 5. In that time, no player has seen more than 14 total opportunities (Gore, once), and neither has crested 70 total yards in a game once during that span. Since week 3, the backfield has produced a total of one touchdown. It barely matters that the Chargers rank fifth worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed over the last five weeks, as no player is even averaging 8 DraftKings points per game since Bell’s departure. Even with Joe Flacco playing slightly more efficient football on a per-play basis, there’s no need in using 12% (Perine) to 18% of your precious budget on a Jets running back. There’s almost no chance whatsoever that either player will post a have-to-have-it score, so fantasy gamers can simply toss both Perine and Gore out of their player pools and not look back.

Los Angeles Chargers Passing Game

Chargers’ quarterback and rookie of the year favorite Justin Herbert had arguably his worst game as a pro in a week 10 loss to the Dolphins. He threw for just 5.8 yards per attempt on 32 passes and threw an interception but still managed to throw for two touchdowns and add a third on the ground, to somehow sneak into the top 10 fantasy scorers at the quarterback position for the fifth time in six weeks. Herbert now ranks second all time in fantasy points scored in a rookie quarterback’s first eight starts, trailing Cam Newton’s 2011 rookie campaign. And now he gets a Jets defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 30th in points allowed per play. Week 11 has a chance to be a career day for the rookie Herbert, as the Jets will likely start three rookies at cornerback this weekend. The only issue, of course, is salary, as Herbert’s $6,800 salary ranks third highest among quarterbacks, but the Awesemo projections are right in line with salary-based expectations. Herbert and the Chargers are ranked fifth in Awesemo’s top stack probability rankings this weekend.

With Herbert throwing fewer passes than usual, no Chargers skill players saw eight targets for the first time since Herbert took over as the starter. Keenan Allen, top five in the NFL in true weighted opportunity share, led the team in targets (as he often does) but only had seven, which he turned into a middling three receptions for 39 yards. In fact, no Chargers receiver even topped 40 yards, as the offense couldn’t find an answer for Miami’s suddenly stifling defense, that suddenly ranks in the top 10 (over the last three weeks) in points allowed per play. The Jets, of course, are a very, very different defense, as they rank bottom 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to primary and secondary wide receivers. This makes Keenan Allen a smash play, yet again, despite a salary inside the top three receivers. The projections like Allen much more than Herbert’s auxiliary option (even at their reduced prices) and suggest fantasy gamers interested in pivoting look first to Hunter Henry, who’s tied for second on the team in red zone target share since week 7, though Henry, too has a salary inside the top three tight ends this weekend.

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Los Angeles Chargers Rushing Game

For the second week in a row, the Chargers’ leader in opportunities was Kalen Ballage, following up his week 9 Chargers debut with a 24 opportunities, the second-largest amount of looks for any Chargers running back in a game this season (and most since week 2), and Ballage made the most of the moment, catching five passes and totaling 102 yards from scrimmage. It’s only the second time since Austin Ekeler’s injury that a Los Angeles running back has crested the 100 total yards threshold, and now Ballage gets to face his old squad in a revenge game narrative that is suddenly and inexplicably important. The Jets, of course, haven’t been atrocious against opponent rushing attacks, ranking league averages in yards allowed per carry, but the Jets still rank 30th in points allowed per play, a strong indicator that the Chargers, like nearly every team that faces the Jets, should see increased trips to the red zone and/or goal line than is typical. And that’s certainly happened many times for running backs this season, as the Jets rank 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. Joshua Kelley continues to be relegated to a complementary role, seeing fewer than 10 opportunities for the second time in three weeks and totaling fewer than 30 total yards. Kelley is only MME play, but assuming Ballage has the backfield mostly to himself once again (made much more certain by the Chargers placing running back Justin Jackson on injured reserve), he’s a fantastic low-salary, high-usage running back, who’s playing at home in a plus matchup. It’s crazy, but true: Ballage has a sky-high ceiling this weekend.

Prediction: Chargers 34, Jets 13

Jump to Another Matchup

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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