Matt Savoca’s Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Column returns for Week 12 of the NFL season. In it, he goes through every single game on the main slate on Sundays for your season-long fantasy football lineups on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS and your NFL DFS builds on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have 11 games on tap for Week 12, so let’s dive into the action.
Week 12 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown for NFL DFS
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Early Games
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Afternoon Games
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
UPDATE LOG:
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
- Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start for the Dolphins – as the original breakdown suspected.
- Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin are both inactive for the Dolphins. That means Matt Breida and recently acquired DeAndre Washington will split the workload in the Miami backfield.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
- The Jaguars have moved on from Jake Luton, as the orignal article states – but not to Gardner Minshew, but to Mike Glennon
- D.J. Chark and Chris Conley are surprise inactives. That’s means much more looks for Keelan Cole and Leviska Shenault – Shenault likely sees a few rush attempts, as well.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
- Austin Ekeler has been activated and should see his typical workload (18-22 opportunities), especially with Kalen Ballage inactive.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
- Jonathan Taylor has been placed on the COVID-19 list. That means Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are both in for a steady workload against the Titans.
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
- Larry Fitzgerald has tested positive for COVID-19. He’s out for Sunday. That’s a slight boost to Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk. DeAndre Hopkins‘ outlook remains unchanged.
- The Patriots activated Sony Michel, which gives a slight downgrade to Damien Harris, who sees little work in the passing game.
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons
- Todd Gurley is inactive – that means Brian Hill is the next man up, with Ito Smith likely to mix in. Hill will be highly utilized at $4,000
- Julio Jones is unlikely to play, making Calvin Ridley a stronger play, with a small downside that without Jones, the Atlanta offense is less productive overall, lower all Falcons’ players’ floors.
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
- Adam Thielen is out. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson will be two of the highest-owned players at their respective positions.
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals
- Jonathan Taylor has been placed on the COVID-19 list. That means Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are both in for a steady workload against the Titans.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
- Raheem Mostert has been activated off injured reserve and likely sees his action this week.
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos
- All Broncos quarterbacks have been deemed high-risk contacts. Kendall Hinton has been elevated to the roster as the emergency starter.
Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: (49) Cleveland Browns (27.75) at Jacksonville Jaguars (21.25)
Cleveland Passing Game
Cleveland’s Week 11 win was the blueprint for the Browns’ offensive success, and it barely involved the passing game whatsoever. Hindered by sloppy weather for the third straight game, Baker Mayfield attempted 21 passes last Sunday, completing only 12 of them, and yet the game log shows the Browns dominating for much of the game regardless. Mayfield threw for over 9 yards per attempt for just the third time this season (and threw no interceptions for the third game in the row), allowing the backfield tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to dominate the touches and ultimately the flow of the games (see Cleveland Rushing Game, below). Mayfield’s lack of touchdowns were what hurt him most in terms of fantasy scoring, but in terms of real football, expect coach Kevin Stefanski to remain perfectly content relegating Mayfield to the role of game manager, so long as it keeps resulting in wins on for the Browns on Sundays. It also means there are likely better, higher-upside options at the quarterback position, even in a plus matchup, as this appears to be. The Jaguars rank 31st in yards allowed per drive and in points allowed per drive, so we should expect plenty of offense from the Browns (their implied total of nearly 28 is the highest they’ve had all season), we just can’t expect it to come via the air. The Browns rank dead last in true neutral early down pass rate and bottom 10 in game script adjusted pass rate.
The lack of volume (of course) also affects the upside of every Browns’ receiver, as volume remains far from a guarantee on a week-to-week basis. Since Week 5, only one player, Jarvis Landry, has recorded a game with more than six targets, and he did it one time. With Mayfield consistently ranked toward the bottom of the league in attempted air yards per game and the target totals for any receiver, even on a good day, maxing out at five (as it has for all Browns’ receivers in their past two games), there’s simply too much of a reliance on efficiency and/or touchdowns for fantasy gamers to think of any Cleveland passing-attack player as anything other than a dart-throw play in daily fantasy football lineups. Even Landry, whom many expected would step up into alpha status once Odell Beckham was last for the year, has struggled to see targets consistently (he only has seven total targets over his last two games), and his 52 yards during that span ranks third on the team, behind Rashard Higgins and KhaDarel Hodge. Even worse, for the Cleveland receivers, when Mayfield isn’t handing the ball off near the goal line, he’s hyper-focused on tight ends, as the trio of Harrison Bryant, David Njoku, Austin Hooper and the running backs make up more than 50% of the red zone target share since Week 7. Landry is the only non-tight end with a single look inside the opponent’s 20. With such a low touchdown probability from week to week, it’s tough to trust any player in this passing attack, but Landry’s $5,200 salary at least makes him palatable as a tournament pivot play, especially against a Jaguars defense that ranks 11th worst against wide receivers in schedule-adjusted fantasy points. Hooper, despite not having a game above 50 yards receiving in seven weeks, isn’t the most terrible bet at $3,200, 10th highest among tight ends, but, as is the case with most at his position, he’ll likely need a touchdown to be a value at his salary.
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Cleveland Rushing Game
With Chubb back in the lineup and (once again) dominating defenses, the Stefanski-led Browns have returned to their running back duo as the heart and soul of their offensive attack. Since Chubb returned in Week 10, the duo has combined for nearly 66% of the Browns’ total opportunities, 63% of the total yards and 100% of the offensive touchdowns. They both rank in the top 12 among running backs in total opportunities per game, meaning, from a usage standpoint, they’re both top-tier running backs for daily fantasy football gamers. It’s truly a rarity to have two superstars at the position on the same team who are getting enough consistent volume to start both players in fantasy football lineups (recent examples include Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon last season in Los Angeles, and Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in New Orleans in 2017), but that’s exactly the scenario the Browns find themselves in this season. With Jacksonville ranking fifth worst in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs this season, it’s a great week to bet on both backs to dominate. In large-field tournaments, it might not be the craziest idea to make an exception to the rule and play both running backs in the same lineup.
Jacksonville Passing Game
(Update: Since this article was written, the Jaguars announced their moving on from Jake Luton to Mike Glennon. Once upon a time, Glennon was benched for Mitchell Trubisky, who got benched for Nick Foles (in Chicago), who got benched for Gardner Minshew (when Foles went to Jacksonville), who was benched for Jake Luton, who is now benched for Glennon. What a world)
Luton is not the answer at quarterback for the Jaguars. That is not to say that Minshew had been playing otherworldly football prior to his thumb injury (he’s apparently close to returning), but Luton hasn’t been up to the task, especially in Week 11 against the Steelers, when he was picked off four times and led the Jaguars to one total scoring drive. Luton’s 151 passing yards are the lowest yardage total by a Jacksonville quarterback this whole, sorry, season. Making matters worse, the offensive line couldn’t hold back the (granted, NFL best) defensive line of the Steelers whatsoever, as Luton endured seven quarterback hits and two sacks. The Jaguars have allowed the opposing defense to record multiple sacks in every game played this season. Jacksonville currently has the third-worst team passing grade in the NFL, according to PFF, and while the Cleveland defense isn’t quite at Pittsburgh’s level, the Browns rank third in the NFL over their last three games in both yards allowed per pass attempt and points allowed per play. And while it will be tough for Cleveland to play quite as effectively as they have been without Denzel Ward (calf) in the secondary, the fantasy-based matchup metrics appear to be in the Browns defense’ favor in this matchup – Cleveland ranks top 10 in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. On paper, this matchup looks nearly as treacherous for the Jaguars passing attack as one week ago, making Luton a stay-away option and the Cleveland defense a likely popular option at the DST position in daily fantasy football lineups.
Most fantasy gamers can likely just move on from the receiver options in this offense, as well, though D.J. Chark, who has 26 targets over his last three games, is always a threat to break a big play or two. Chark has nearly double the weighted opportunity than any other Jaguars receiver since Week 7 and has 50% more fantasy points than the next closest Jaguar. The issue for Chark, of course, is the team’s lack of scoring drives. In fact, the Jaguars rarely even find themselves in plus territory much these days, averaging one measly red zone target per game over their last four contests. Chark hasn’t seen any of them, meaning he’ll be an efficiency-reliant player, which is never ideal for fantasy gamers. At the very least, his $5,200 salary on DraftKings in modest enough that he doesn’t need more than his typical yardage plus a touchdown to be a value play in daily fantasy football lineups, but as long as the Jaguars quarterback play remains incompetent, Chark will be a relatively thin play each and every week. Chris Conley, at just $3,000, is likely the stronger play when considering salary this weekend however, not because he has the highest probability of scoring the most fantasy points among Jacksonville receivers (Chark still does), but Conley has scored just 16 fewer fantasy points than Chark since Week 7, and ranks second on the team in air yards and in red zone targets during that span. That’s an excellent combination for a minimum-salary wide receiver. Though Cleveland ranks top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to secondary wideouts, Conley is the preferred secondary option (compared to tight end Tyler Eifert or wideout Keelan Cole) for fantasy gamers looking for leverage plays in tournaments. They’re all dart throws at best this weekend.
Jacksonville Rushing Game
Even with crushingly terrible offensive play surrounding him, James Robinson continues to shine in a backfield where no player should be succeeding. This past weekend, he became just the fifth undrafted rookie in the modern era to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage, joining Phillip Lindsay (in 2018), LeGarrette Blount (2010), Dominic Rhodes (2001) and Clark Gaines (1976) as the only players to accomplish that feat. In a previous matchups column, Robinson was referred to as being on the Arian Foster trajectory, and I see no reason to deviate from that position at this time. The Browns have been tough against opposing running backs in recent weeks, ranking in the top 15 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, but they’re only middle of the road during that span in yards allowed per carry, meaning that there should be holes for Robinson to squeeze his way through. As the sixth best running back in expected fantasy points per game (and fourth best in fantasy points scored over expectation), Robinson has been outplaying his situation (and poor matchups) all season. I can’t believe I’m saying this about a Jaguars running back: start Robinson with confidence in all fantasy football formats this weekend. Any player averaging over 21 opportunities and over 100 total yards per game this season is worth rostering every single week.
Prediction: Browns 24, Jaguars 13
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This breakdown sucks. 2 games in and half the information discussed is outdated. And it says the article was published today,11/29, the day of the games?