Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Passing Game
The Steelers certainly have a different matchup this week than they did last Sunday, when they faced their arch-nemesis Baltimore and won a hard-fought, back-and-forth battle. With Dallas’ offensive struggles exacerbated by the starting of their fourth quarterback this season, it’s very likely the Pittsburgh offense will be playing from advantageous positions, especially against a Cowboys defense that ranks 20th in yards allowed per attempt and dead last in points allowed per play. Though they’ve been even more exploitable on the ground (see Pittsburgh Rushing game, below), Dallas has the third-worst team coverage grade via PFF, and the Steelers have the offensive firepower to exploit poor matchups throughout the middling Dallas secondary.
Although, it’s a bit concerning that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recorded his second game in a row under 6 yards per attempt in week 8 after beginning the season with five straight games of at least 6.5 yards per attempt. He also managed only 182 total passing yards against a stingy Baltimore defense. Even though the two passing touchdowns allowed him to sneak inside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points last weekend, post-elbow surgery Roethlisberger seems to be squarely in the “average” tier of quarterbacks, ranking 16th in expected points added, 18th in true completion percentage and 22nd in total QBR. On a more positive note, the Steelers offensive line has been tremendous this season, ranking second in the league in protection rate. When pressure does arrive, even at his advanced age, Roethlisberger remains adept under duress, ranking fifth in the NFL in pressured completion percentage this season.
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Also a bit wacky for the Steelers in this plus matchup is the salary hierarchy for the receivers, particularly the placement of JuJu Smith-Schuster as the highest salary wide receiver (WR16 overall) among the Steelers’ big three. Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster ranks significantly lower than Diontae Johnson in most usage metrics. For instance Johnson ranks 36th among wideouts in true weighted opportunity share, while Smith-Schuster ranks 44th. In fact, Johnson, who had his first down game of the season in week 8, ranks below Chase Claypool in salary (Claypool admittedly has been fantastic and earned nine targets a week ago). Simply, Johnson should have a higher salary than both of his teammates but inexplicably requires the least salary to fit him into daily fantasy football lineups. This makes him an obvious value play as the 30th-highest-salary wide receiver on the main slate. Claypool’s projection on Awesemo.com also ranks him slightly ahead of salary-based expectations. GPP players could consider Eric Ebron, who actually plays at a higher snap percentage than all of the three main Pittsburgh wide receivers, though his salary makes him tougher to fit in this weekend, as he’s the sixth-highest-salary tight end on the main slate. Fantasy gamers are likely better off moving up to the elite tier or down to the budget tier at tight end.
Pittsburgh Rushing Game
Week 8 marked starting running back James Conner’s lowest yardage total since week 1 despite receiving 18 opportunities, just one shy of his season-long average. Conner was stymied by the Baltimore run defense that ranks right at league average in yards allowed per carry. This week, however, the matchup is salivatingly good for Conner, as the Cowboys have been one of the most vulnerable teams in the NFL on the ground. They rank 30th in yards allowed per carry and in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards allowed. Connor’s salary puts him inside the top five running backs on the main slate, and ownership will likely consolidate around Connor. But with the Steelers facing a team thatdoesn’t even have a clear option at quarterback (as of midweek), Connor seems absolutely worth it as high-end running back play this weekend.
Dallas Passing Game
Here’s what we can tell you about the Cowboys starting quarterback as of midweek: His name won’t be Ben DiNucci.
Beyond that, it’s anyone’s guess how the Cowboys’ latest quarterback experiment will play-out, as ex-Orlando Apollo (of the AAF) Garrett Gilbert and practice-squad signee (and former third stringer) Cooper Rush battle it out for the lowest-upside starting quarterback battle in recent memory. The two have a combined six NFL attempts. Gilbert, the elder statesman of the two, is on his fifth NFL team, had an 18th percentile college QBR and an 11th percentile college yards per attempt. Rush was essentially the same level of prospect, with a nearly identical QBR at Central Michigan but a slightly higher yards per attempt. Both have lower percentile athleticism as well, so they won’t be adding much with their legs.
Needless to say, the fact that Pittsburgh is a stifling defense against even elite signal-callers means that the expectation should be for the Steelers to go completely berserk defensively. The real surprise, of course, is the Steelers defense’s salary. At $4,900, it’s the highest salary defense in the history of the site, a strong indicator of just how juicy a matchup this looks to be on paper for the Steelers, as they rank number one in sack rate, and sixth in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA. Even ignoring the potential dumpster fire behind center, the Dallas offensive line, at just league average in adjusted sack rate, was bound to have trouble with the Steelers’ elite pass rush. PFF’s No. 1 overall defense has no excuse not to have its best day yet, but they’ll need half a dozen sacks, multiple turnovers and likely a defensive score in order to be worthwhile for fantasy gamers, particularly in tournaments. In cash, it could absolutely make sense if the proper salary considerations are made.
Finally, it’s understandably impossible to trust anyone in the Cowboys’ receiving game. Yes, technically, passes will get thrown towards receivers, but predicting either quarterbacks’ ability to deliver the ball accurately is a complete toss-up. Ignoring the accuracy, it’s still safe to put Amari Cooper as the first option, as he’s had the most targets on the Cowboys since Dak Prescott was lost for the season. But CeeDee Lamb, with 21 targets over the last three weeks, is just a single target behind Cooper, and Michael Gallup is at 20 targets. That means the Cowboys’ big three still commands a healthy 57% of the targets. Add in tight end Dalton Schultz, and that’s 72% of all Cowboys’ targets in the weeks since Prescott was injured, which in theory still makes Dallas a decent stacking option. In reality, though, the downside is so low that the four primary Cowboys options are only for the most risk-embracing daily fantasy football players among us. Awesemo’s projections are extremely down on all three wideouts, seeing the 21st- (Cooper), 32nd- (Lamb) and 50th- (Gallup) highest-salary receivers as much too steep. Schultz, with a salary outside the top 15 tight ends, is a bit more intriguing, as low-experience quarterbacks sometimes lean on tight ends and running backs for easy completions. But he’s a tournament-only option amongst the dung pile that is the Dallas passing game.
Dallas Rushing Game
Ezekiel Elliott saw his typical 21 opportunities last Sunday night and amassed a decent 73 yards, but that’s where the positives end. Elliott hasn’t scored since week 5 (the last game Dak Prescott played in). The Cowboys aren’t even sure which of their two bench quarterbacks to start behind center, and the Steelers rank eighth in yards allowed per carry, fifth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs and second in adjusted line yards. This offense is completely kaput — Jets-level dysfunctional. Twenty-one empty-calorie touches, even from a Pro Bowler like Ezekiel Elliott, simply aren’t worth it. His eighth-highest running back salary on DraftKings is much too steep this weekend. The high-flying 2020 Cowboys offense seems like it was an eternity ago despite it only being three weeks. It’s going to be a long second half of the season in Dallas.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Cowboys 6.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother