Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Houston Texans (28.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (22.5)
Houston Passing Game
The Texans are 1-6, slogging through a season to forget, but they have a fantastic opportunity to get in the win column this weekend as they head to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team with an equally poor record and starting a sixth-round rookie in their first career start. Needless to say, quarterback Deshaun Watson needs to execute on offense, because, for once, the typically atrocious Houston defense (see Jacksonville passing game below) may actually have a chance at stopping the opposing offense.
Watson hasn’t been nearly as bad as the Texans’ record would indicate, ranking ninth in the NFL in total passing yards, fifth in adjusted yards per attempt, and fourth in true passer rating. Those efficiency statistics are all the more impressive when you consider the fact he’s been scrambling for his life on most passing plays – the Texans offensive line ranks last in the league in protection rate. Ultimately, Watson is stymied by a relatively conservative offense that ranks 15th in pass attempts per game, and 19th in air yards per second of play, and by a defense that is constantly giving up yards and touchdowns, forcing Watson and the offense to keep pace.
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It looked like he wouldn’t be for a moment this week, but Will Fuller is still a member of the Texans after trade negotiations with the Packers fell-through at the deadline. Fuller has had at least five targets in every week since week 3 and has had target totals of 7, 8, and 11 during that span. Fuller is fourteenth in true weighted opportunity share, well ahead of teammate Brandin Cooks (he’s 28th among wideouts), but Cooks likes the better play when considering salary. The Awesemo projection for Cooks comes in well ahead of his 23rd highest salary among wide receivers on the main slate. Even Randall Cobb looks like a decent play for daily fantasy football lineups this weekend, as the Jaguars are the third-worst team in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tertiary wide receivers. The Jaguars secondary ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Needless to say, the Texans will be an extremely popular passing stack this weekend, but interestingly enough, the Awesemo Top Stacks tool says it might be a little too popular, so plan to differentiate your lineups in other ways.
Houston Rushing Game
If there was ever a weekend to start David Johnson in fantasy football lineups, this is it. Jacksonville ranks 22nd in yards allowed per carry over the last three weeks. They rank 32nd in points allowed per play this season, and they’re 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Johnson continues to be utilized as a workhorse in the Texans offense (not always to incredible success, but I digress) and he hasn’t seen below a 30% opportunity share in a single game this season. He’s also had three or more targets in all except one game when he had two. Duke Johnson isn’t a threat, whatsoever to David Johnson’s workload, meaning there isn’t one good reason for fantasy gamers to leave David Johnson out of their player pools this weekend, especially when considering the fact he ranks outside the top-12 running backs in salary on the main slate this weekend. If he ends up in the top-3 running backs in fantasy points in week 9, you shouldn’t be surprised at all.
Jacksonville Passing Game
What’s that you say – you’ve never heard of Jake Luton? How dare you.
Luton will replace Gardner Minshew, who has a fracture in his thumb, at quarterback in week 9, making his first career start against the division-rival Texans. Luton was a sixth-round pick out of Oregon State (he transferred there from Idaho) and threw for between 6.3 and 7.6 yards per attempt in each of his sophomore, junior and senior seasons, which is 32nd percentile among all quarterback prospects since 2013. At the very least, Luton did a fantastic job of limiting turnovers his senior season, throwing only three interceptions and more than three times as many touchdowns. He doesn’t add much with his legs (something Minshew was able to do, on occasion), as he only scored one total rushing touchdown in his three seasons in the PAC-12. In his first start, he’ll face a Texans team that ranks 25th in yards allowed per attempt and 27th in points allowed per play. Theoretically, this is an exploitable secondary (PFF ranks Houston as the eighth-worst secondary in the NFL), but that certainly can’t be guaranteed with a rookie, sixth-round signal-caller making his first snaps under center this Sunday.
It’s impossible to tell if Luton can be relied on to get any receiver the ball, but we’d still assume that his primary option would be D.J. Chark, who is the only receiver on the Jaguars’ roster who ranks inside the top-30 wideouts in true weighted opportunity share (and the only player on the team averaging more than 6 targets per game). Chark has struggled of late, recording only one game with over 45 receiving yards since week 2, and had been outproduced in recent weeks by both Laviska Shenault (who led the team with 44 measly receiving yards in week 6, and is, by far, the preferred option in the Awesemo projections if taking a dart-throw on this passing game) and Keelan Cole. Cole, to his credit, has a game with 140-plus receiving yards this season, but for the most part, the Jacksonville passing offense has been quite content spreading the ball around. In fact, the Jaguars have seven active players who average between 21 and 53 receiving yards per game. For obvious reasons, picking which one might go off, even against a mediocre Texans defense, in a rookie quarterback’s first start, is like finding a needle in a haystack. Good luck.
Jacksonville Rushing Game
James Robinson is having a fantastic season, it’s really that simple. Regardless of the mess at quarterback, we can expect Robinson to get, at the very least, his typical 15 rushes and 4-5 targets, but that number may increase (especially the targets) if Luton has trouble hitting his receivers downfield. It’s very possible Robinson is doubly relied on as not only the primary rusher but as the primary receiver for an inexperienced quarterback, as well. Robinson has found his way into the end zone an impressive six times already this season, and ranks among the top 10 running backs in yards per route run, yards created, and in evaded tackles. Most importantly, the Texans rank dead last in yards allowed per carry, 31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. Even though the floor is lowered due to the quarterback shift, the ceiling still absolutely exists for Robinson, the matchup is enticing enough to make him a consideration in any daily fantasy football lineup, even as the fourth-highest salary running back on the main slate.
Prediction: Texans 30, Jaguars 21.
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love the article matt! keep up the good work brother