Daily Fantasy Football Matchups: Denver Broncos (22) @ Atlanta Falcons (26.5)
Denver Passing Game
The Broncos had no business winning their week 8 matchup against the Chargers. Thoroughly outplayed for much of the afternoon, quarterback Drew Lock made up for what otherwise was a middling performance as a passer by mounting an impressive fourth quarter comeback, culminating in a final seconds touchdown toss to rookie K.J. Hamler. It was Lock’s second straight week attempting 40 passes, and yet Lock failed to reach 255 yards passing in either game. Lock has yet to reach 8 yards per attempt in any contest, and has been at 6.5 YPA or lower in all but one contest. Yes, Lock’s three touchdown passes were enough to help him enter the top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy points for the first time this season, but that can’t be counted on with Lock (he hadn’t thrown more than 1 in a game all season), even against a Falcons defense that ranks in the bottom-10 in yards allowed per pass attempt.
Editor’s Note:
Looking to hedge your daily fantasy football lineups with some prop bets? Join the future of NFL DFS by checking out OddsShopper today. Shopping for the best odds on a bet is the most efficient way to beat the books. As well, with an Awesemo+ package you get stats broken down from our daily fantasy football projections so you can get an edge on the field. Just click on the image below to start shopping!
Another issue for fantasy gamers – Lock has tended to spread the ball around in many of his starts this season. No receiver ranks inside the top-30 in true weighted opportunity share, and only Jerry Jeudy ranks inside the top-35. Tim Patrick, who’d seen a boost in usage over the last few weeks before missing week 8 with an injury, is questionable headed into the weekend, making DeSean Hamilton, who had 5 targets last week but ranks outside the top-100 in true weighted opportunity share, the only other wide receiver worth considering. Fantasy gamers are much better off betting on the tight ends, especially Noah Fant, if they believe Denver’s offense can keep pace with the high powered Falcons. Fant quietly ranks sixth in true weighted opportunity share, and saw a healthy nine targets in week 8, the most he’d seen all season. Also working in Fant’s favor is that over the last five weeks, the Falcons have given up the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends in the entire NFL. Fant may be one of the rare “mid tier” tight ends worth considering for fantasy gamers (usually it’s better to go up to the elite players, or simply find a less salary-intensive option), he’s the fifth highest salary tight end on the main slate and could easily outperform that ranking this weekend.
Denver Rushing Game
Week 8 wasn’t a game for rushing the ball for the Broncos, as they found themselves down by multiple scores quickly against the Chargers, and were forced to pass for much of the second half. Melvin Gordon led the team with 8 carries, and Phillip Lindsay was right behind him with 6, in what was by far the lowest rush total of the season for Broncos backs. Philip Lindsay stole the show from an efficiency standpoint, rushing for 83 yards on those six attempts, highlighted by a 55 yard touchdown run. Gordon had seven targets, however, which is nothing to scoff at, but for the most part, Lindsay has been the more efficient runner, and on an offense that doesn’t put up a huge amount of points week to week, that’s what fantasy gamers are going to be counting on, but the Awesemo projections for both players are quite lukewarm, especially considering salary. Lindsay, with a salary inside the top-20 running backs isn’t nearly at the discount he should be based on his limited touches. He’s a decent contrarian option, as he’s projected for less than 1% ownership, compared to Gordon’s roughly 5% projected ownership, but neither look like strong plays on paper this weekend. The Falcons are much stronger against the run (where they rank league average in yards allowed per carry) compared to the pass, where they rank among the worst defenses in the NFL.
Atlanta Passing Game
Matt Ryan didn’t throw for any touchdowns in the Falcons week 8 victory, but he played extremely efficient football, completing 70% of his 30 pass attempts (a season low), and throwing for 9.4 yards per attempt, a season high. He also shocked the football world by running in a score, his first (of course) of the year. Ryan wasn’t particularly hindered (at least in this one game sample size) by the mid-game exit of Calvin Ridley, whose status is still up in the air for week 9, as of Friday. Ryan is in the midst of yet another high quality season as a passing, ranking number one in total passing yards and completed air yards, while still maintaining decent efficiency, as he ranks exactly 11th in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt, clean pocket completion percentage, and in total QBR. His total expected points added is sixth best in the NFL. And while Denver ranks among the top six teams in yards allowed per attempt this season, they’re well below that in points allowed per play, and over the last five weeks, have been in the bottom-10 of all teams in that metric. This is a matchup that Ryan can exploit, particularly if he has both of his primary wide receivers.
Speaking of those receivers, the probability of this game becoming a shootout drastically increases if Calvin Ridley is able to play, but that doesn’t preclude Julio Jones from having a massive performance regardless of his counterpart’s injury status. The Broncos have only been middle-of-the-road against primary wide receivers in schedule adjusted fantasy points, and Jones is averaging over 18 DraftKings points per game this season. Ridley, if he plays, has the even more enticing matchup, as the Broncos have been particularly vulnerable against secondary wide receivers, ranking among the worst five teams in the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. He doesn’t come with much of a salary discount, but Ridley, at $7,000, the sixth highest salary wideout on the main slate, makes the most sense out of anyone in this spot (again, assuming he plays). Russell Gage also makes a decent contrarian tournament play at under 3% expected ownership. He’s had games of 4, 5, and 7 targets over the last four weeks, and is the only other option players should be considering besides tight end Hayden Hurst. Hurst has the best projection on Awesemo.com relative to salary, and should absolutely be considered a value as the tenth highest salary tight end on the main slate.
Atlanta Rushing Game
It hasn’t always resulted in the most consistent of performances, but Todd Gurley is seeing some of the most consistent usage of any high-end running back, earning a 29% opportunity share in each of the last four Falcons’ contests. This issue of course, is that he’s only been able to turn that consistent opportunity into an average of 77 total yards per game, in fact, he’s only had three games over that mark, and just one game over 100 total yards. The touchdowns have been a major help, as he’s one of seven active running backs averaging one touchdown per game thus far. But touchdowns vary heavily week to week, and more importantly, Brian Hill suddenly saw 23% of team opportunities (on top of Gurley’s 29%) last week, putting further doubt into Gurley’s status as an every-down (plus goal line) running back. When considering Hill’s ascension (Hill had 3 targets to Gurley’s zero a week ago), Gurley’s general lack of efficiency, and the Falcons likely being full strength at receiver, it’s still very hard to trust the rushing game, despite the Broncos ranking in the bottom-8 teams in yards allowed per carry over the last three weeks, and the Falcons being home favorites in this matchup. The Awesemo projections indicate think Gurley’s 10th highest salary among running backs is too steep. Gurley’s a fade based on median projections.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Broncos 21.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks and daily fantasy football matchups content? We have loads of articles, data, and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
love the article matt! keep up the good work brother